nzucker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I don't think there is one person in SNE who thinks that we have a chance in hell at repeating January in March......no one expects another 50" month. I think what he's saying though, is that winter is NOT going to return with a vengeance. None of the models are really showing signs of any transition away from a -PNA; January had a strong MJO wave that pushed into Phases 7 and 8, allowing a more favorable Pacific pattern to develop which gave us the series of coastals leading to historic snowfall amounts. With the MJO now stuck in the middle and the strong Niña ruling the roost, we're not likely to see a sustained wintry regime for a while. None of the guidance is showing any sign of a big -NAO in the longer range...both the Euro and the GFS are pretty flat in the Atlantic due to the giant PV sitting over Canada. We can certainly hope for a gradient pattern since there seems to be a parade of storms marching out of the western trough, and we have some good cold anomalies across Canada, but the SE ridge is probably going to cause a lot of taint and warm-ups between events, which will be deadly for snowpack in late February/early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Forky, I think the pattern looks fine for NE going forward. Mid-Atlantic naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 i don't see any signs of dec/jan type wx coming back ec/gfs/ensembles all show a big PV in northern canada with the horribly placed PAC ridge not going anywhere Yeah, your Winter is ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 15" in march after getting 60-90" dec-early feb is returning with a vengeance? and my prediction of not that much snow was predicated on the system not being that far north... they got into good ratios up there I'm betting i get more than 15 up here. so you got the amounts right, if you consider the ratios, but you got the track way wrong....but overall you were right at 500...or somethin like that? JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I think what he's saying though, is that winter is NOT going to return with a vengeance. None of the models are really showing signs of any transition away from a -PNA; January had a strong MJO wave that pushed into Phases 7 and 8, allowing a more favorable Pacific pattern to develop which gave us the series of coastals leading to historic snowfall amounts. With the MJO now stuck in the middle and the strong Niña ruling the roost, we're not likely to see a sustained wintry regime for a while. None of the guidance is showing any sign of a big -NAO in the longer range...both the Euro and the GFS are pretty flat in the Atlantic due to the giant PV sitting over Canada. We can certainly hope for a gradient pattern since there seems to be a parade of storms marching out of the western trough, and we have some good cold anomalies across Canada, but the SE ridge is probably going to cause a lot of taint and warm-ups between events, which will be deadly for snowpack in late February/early March. This is the New England thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I think what he's saying though, is that winter is NOT going to return with a vengeance. None of the models are really showing signs of any transition away from a -PNA; January had a strong MJO wave that pushed into Phases 7 and 8, allowing a more favorable Pacific pattern to develop which gave us the series of coastals leading to historic snowfall amounts. With the MJO now stuck in the middle and the strong Niña ruling the roost, we're not likely to see a sustained wintry regime for a while. None of the guidance is showing any sign of a big -NAO in the longer range...both the Euro and the GFS are pretty flat in the Atlantic due to the giant PV sitting over Canada. We can certainly hope for a gradient pattern since there seems to be a parade of storms marching out of the western trough, and we have some good cold anomalies across Canada, but the SE ridge is probably going to cause a lot of taint and warm-ups between events, which will be deadly for snowpack in late February/early March. This is the same basic scenario you laid out in early December with disasterous results. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Forky, I think the pattern looks fine for NE going forward. Mid-Atlantic naso much. where in new england? i think places S of ORH aren't really going to get anything special relative to climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This is the same basic scenario you laid out in early December with disasterous results. Keep up the good work. I'll prop em up ... you finish em off. Good work Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I think what he's saying though, is that winter is NOT going to return with a vengeance. None of the models are really showing signs of any transition away from a -PNA; January had a strong MJO wave that pushed into Phases 7 and 8, allowing a more favorable Pacific pattern to develop which gave us the series of coastals leading to historic snowfall amounts. With the MJO now stuck in the middle and the strong Niña ruling the roost, we're not likely to see a sustained wintry regime for a while. None of the guidance is showing any sign of a big -NAO in the longer range...both the Euro and the GFS are pretty flat in the Atlantic due to the giant PV sitting over Canada. We can certainly hope for a gradient pattern since there seems to be a parade of storms marching out of the western trough, and we have some good cold anomalies across Canada, but the SE ridge is probably going to cause a lot of taint and warm-ups between events, which will be deadly for snowpack in late February/early March. I'll bet you $50 that I see at least 20" of snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This is the New England thread... I just think a parade of slop storms and temps averaging normal to slightly above isn't "winter returning with a vengeance." I still think there's a good chance the eastern trough returns by 3/1 and we get a wintry spell in early March, but before then it looks touch-and-go. From what I've heard, the Euro weeklies say the pattern stays mild to end the winter with little NAO blocking, something that becomes increasingly important as we get deeper into March with shortening wavelengths and more marginal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeah, your Winter is ovah. i'm hoping so... 60 on monday felt awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I just think a parade of slop storms and temps averaging normal to slightly above isn't "winter returning with a vengeance." I still think there's a good chance the eastern trough returns by 3/1 and we get a wintry spell in early March, but before then it looks touch-and-go. From what I've heard, the Euro weeklies say the pattern stays mild to end the winter with little NAO blocking, something that becomes increasingly important as we get deeper into March with shortening wavelengths and more marginal storms. Tubes n Tubeyredtag double teaming tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This is the New England thread... OMG. Where do these guys scamper off to when the snow blitz is on? Big March, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Can we get off the whole semantics debate.....Jesus, we all know that Kev likes to start thread titles with a vengeance. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This is the same basic scenario you laid out in early December with disasterous results. Keep up the good work. Huh? I said we wouldn't get much snow until the Pacific improved. The Pacific improved in late December/January with a +PNA and the MJO moving into Phase 8. I was enthusiastic about the pattern at that point. Period. I never said New England won't get more snow...I think we'll see a bunch of SW flow events that you guys cash in on, but not sure about winter "returning with a vengeance." I think we'll have to get through a couple weeks of marginal weather before we see real troughing in early-mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I think what he's saying though, is that winter is NOT going to return with a vengeance. None of the models are really showing signs of any transition away from a -PNA; January had a strong MJO wave that pushed into Phases 7 and 8, allowing a more favorable Pacific pattern to develop which gave us the series of coastals leading to historic snowfall amounts. With the MJO now stuck in the middle and the strong Niña ruling the roost, we're not likely to see a sustained wintry regime for a while. None of the guidance is showing any sign of a big -NAO in the longer range...both the Euro and the GFS are pretty flat in the Atlantic due to the giant PV sitting over Canada. We can certainly hope for a gradient pattern since there seems to be a parade of storms marching out of the western trough, and we have some good cold anomalies across Canada, but the SE ridge is probably going to cause a lot of taint and warm-ups between events, which will be deadly for snowpack in late February/early March. All of NE wants a SE ridge...it has proven very helpful in prior Ninas. And all ensemble guidance is much colder for all of New England after this current torch. I agree that when the ridge flexes, we taint. Who cares? Snow is not going to be on the ground in early April. But snow cover from solstice to equinox is simply incredible. That is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 100% agree but I think there's a bunch privately that are holding out hope. What I see is mild/cold oscillating and maybe we get lucky and get some snow producers versus rainers. I was thinking last week I'd see about 15" more snow here this year, down to 10" now looking at the pattern. Agreed with you and Forky... as usual. We'll get some opportunities for snow but I doubt any prolific snow-producing pattern. I'd like a KU in March but I wouldn't be shocked if the month turned out relatively snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 where in new england? i think places S of ORH aren't really going to get anything special relative to climo This is a good arguement....I could see it being much more impressive to the n of the pike, but I think N CT and RI will do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Play nice kids... or detentions will be issued I don't think anyone (other than those in sheltered glens) are expecting huge mountains of snow. Climo would be fine for most I would think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 i'm hoping so... 60 on monday felt awesome Say no more my Warminista friend. Good thing you don't live here where Winter is alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 All of NE wants a SE ridge...it has proven very helpful in prior Ninas. And all ensemble guidance is much colder for all of New England after this current torch. I agree that when the ridge flexes, we taint. Who cares? Snow is not going to be on the ground in early April. But snow cover from solstice to equinox is simply incredible. That is not out of the question. Speak for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Huh? I said we wouldn't get much snow until the Pacific improved. The Pacific improved in late December/January with a +PNA and the MJO moving into Phase 8. I was enthusiastic about the pattern at that point. Period. I never said New England won't get more snow...I think we'll see a bunch of SW flow events that you guys cash in on, but not sure about winter "returning with a vengeance." I think we'll have to get through a couple weeks of marginal weather before we see real troughing in early-mid March. One possibility, just a thought here, is to read what is in the thread and what people are talking about. Because what people are talking about is a gradient pattern with SWFEs, not a huge NAO block. This pattern is for us not for you and it is the kind of pattern that can produce up here, as Will, Scott,etc have been telling you for 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Agreed with you and Forky... as usual. We'll get some opportunities for snow but I doubt any prolific snow-producing pattern. I'd like a KU in March but I wouldn't be shocked if the month turned out relatively snowless. 1965-66....could happen, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Agreed with you and Forky... as usual. We'll get some opportunities for snow but I doubt any prolific snow-producing pattern. I'd like a KU in March but I wouldn't be shocked if the month turned out relatively snowless. move. your climo is more like dobbs ferry anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Huh? I said we wouldn't get much snow until the Pacific improved. The Pacific improved in late December/January with a +PNA and the MJO moving into Phase 8. I was enthusiastic about the pattern at that point. Period. I never said New England won't get more snow...I think we'll see a bunch of SW flow events that you guys cash in on, but not sure about winter "returning with a vengeance." I think we'll have to get through a couple weeks of marginal weather before we see real troughing in early-mid March. C'mon, buck up. Why do you think the legend of the Zuckertubesocks scares little snow loving children to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Time for Bob to start a new thread... Where is that mohawked man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Tubes n Tubeyredtag double teaming tonight! with an assist from the reactivated DebbyDowner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 1965-66....could happen, but I doubt it. Well I consider 12" or so in March to be relatively snowless after the Dec/Jan we've had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 move. your climo is more like dobbs ferry anyhow. I average about what Boston does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Speak for yourself I for one firmly believe I'll have a stout snowpack on April 1st, quite common actually.lol move. your climo is more like dobbs ferry anyhow. I see Ryan in San Diego or maybe Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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