IsentropicLift Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL 120hr analogs over the east. Some big ones showing up for the MA and NE. Not great for NE, but shows the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 70-75 kt 850mb jet on strong cold advection on the Euro..that's pretty nuts. I look a good wind storm. It's good to see strong winds continue through the day, because we are getting into the time of year where daytime mixing is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Heavy heavy winds Saturday. uggghhh flying from phl to mht saturday morn and was hoping the winds would be a more fri night thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Both the GFS and Euro deliver HWW winds to all of SNE on Saturday. Gusts to 60 seem possible as of now. If I was BOX I'd dtart hammering damaging wind potential with theis afternoon's AFD Little early besides hard to see much damage at 60 gust , now tank that up to 70 .... CAA with max mixing sometimes can get crazy especially at elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 We got invited to a sledding party for kids(beers for adults) party on Sunday. I assured them a bunch of mets guaranteed at least 8 inches and likely over 12 inches left OTG after the thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I think Will said yesterday that there may be one or 2 days that are mild late month but nothing like what we are seeing this week..and that the signal isn't nearly as strong as the this current torch was on the ensembles. Next weeks event looks like a 3-6 type event at this point. Not a big one but a nice return back to winter Yeah we are pretty far out, but the signal is a little stronger today imo. It's still not definite by any means, and shouldn't be anything like this week. Hence why I said milder and not warmer.Like I said, just throwing it out there to let people know it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 uggghhh flying from phl to mht saturday morn and was hoping the winds would be a more fri night thing. Buckle up baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Little early besides hard to see much damage at 60 gust , now tank that up to 70 .... CAA with max mixing sometimes can get crazy especially at elevations. 60 mph gusts cause quite a bit of rotten tree and pine damage. esp when they last for a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 We got invited to a sledding party for kids(beers for adults) party on Sunday. I assured them a bunch of mets guaranteed at least 8 inches and likely over 12 inches left OTG after the thaw That's awesome. Just hope the trails aren't exposed to the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 That's awesome. Just hope the trails aren't exposed to the sun. Nah it's very sheltered. We've been over there 3 times already this winter..but usually on Fri nites. It's about 2 minutes from my house at about 850 feet. He's built this long trail and the kids love it. I;m just afraid it might be ice and not snow to sled on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 That's awesome. Just hope the trails aren't exposed to the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Buckle up baby. After reading the FAA report on near misses over CT yesterday, geez. Failing infrastructure FTL I like your ideas very much. What a difference this year with that vast resource of cold air tickling our fannies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeah we are pretty far out, but the signal is a little stronger today imo. It's still not definite by any means, and shouldn't be anything like this week. Hence why I said milder and not warmer.Like I said, just throwing it out there to let people know it's possible. It is encouraging to see some guidance not buying it. Hopefully it continues today at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 After reading the FAA report on near misses over CT yesterday, geez. Failing infrastructure FTL I like your ideas very much. What a difference this year with that vast resource of cold air tickling our fannies. There's a lot of near misses. I'm not sure I can post it, but you should see the air traffic over the northeast during morning and early afternoon. It makes you wonder how we don't see more accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 60 mph gusts cause quite a bit of rotten tree and pine damage. esp when they last for a long period of time. I agree but isolated. Sledding will be icy no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Buckle up baby. turbulence is going to be brutal. Would they cancel a flight like that? Crosswinds at MHT could be pretty nasty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 There's a lot of near misses. I'm not sure I can post it, but you should see the air traffic over the northeast during morning and early afternoon. It makes you wonder how we don't see more accidents. I saw a BA 777 landing in a 32 kt sustained crosswind in Bermuda one time. You can see them pitching and rolling strongly as they approached...made me sick to my stomach. The pilot was swearing to ATC telling him about the severe turbulence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 turbulence is going to be brutal. Would they cancel a flight like that? Crosswinds at MHT could be pretty nasty too. Usually 50kts is the threshold to close, however cross winds will impact arrival and delays. Logan and other northeast terminals were built with runway configurations to account for gusty nw winds, but Logan suffers from delays when winds get above 35 kts it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I saw a BA 777 landing in a 32 kt sustained crosswind in Bermuda one time. You can see them pitching and rolling strongly as they approached...made me sick to my stomach. The pilot was swearing to ATC telling him about the severe turbulence. You guys get some crazy winds. I've watched the obs from TXKF in certain situations and 40-50kt gusts seem to occur with some frequency there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yes I agree, and responding to messenger...it's not so much the banter and friendly trolling...that can be fun and entertaining. But it is the sort of weird energy that the forky style trolling brings that bothers me. Now, does it really affect my day? Of course not much, but I enjoy both the weather discussion and the banter on here and don't like it when the banter takes on a strange feel. I have found that most often happens when non-New Englanders come in here and don't quite get the subtlety of New England style banter. hah...subtle isn't the word that comes to my mind when I think of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Look at this negative PNA. Now a good NAO would make the times beautiful. Oh and yes...it is at the start of a 6 week epic period for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 You guys get some crazy winds. I've watched the obs from TXKF in certain situations and 40-50kt gusts seem to occur with some frequency there. yes...i'd have to look but Bermuda has dozens of incidents of 50 kt gusts a winter along with sustained 35 kt. Last winter was nuts and Bermuda had a ton of flight cancellations. The one runway is 30/12. So S/SSW ahead of cold fronts tend to cause the most problems. Highest official gust was 81 kt during Igor...we had an official gust to 69 kt during a winter storm also. As you probably know...most US carriers get antsy about 25 kt cross...and straight out cancel around 30 kt cross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 You guys are really helping me look forward to flying on Sat. What time period do the winds look to peak? maybe I'll fly late Friday, or just go Sat eve or first thing Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This was during one of the gales they had over there a few winters ago. One of the scariest near landings/crashes I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 After reading the FAA report on near misses over CT yesterday, geez. Failing infrastructure FTL I like your ideas very much. What a difference this year with that vast resource of cold air tickling our fannies. Where can I see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Now this looks vaguely familiar....on the cusp of a short but robust torch. And afterwards....epicosity.. Now this kind of looks like what the gfs is prescribing around d10. Not forecasting it but it seems to me that we're in a repetetive pattern maybe? And we may be very pleasantly surprised in about 10-15 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 yes...i'd have to look but Bermuda has dozens of incidents of 50 kt gusts a winter along with sustained 35 kt. Last winter was nuts and Bermuda had a ton of flight cancellations. The one runway is 30/12. So S/SSW ahead of cold fronts tend to cause the most problems. Highest official gust was 81 kt during Igor...we had an official gust to 69 kt during a winter storm also. I've received a few calls asking us if we agree about winds to 50kts at TXKF, and I agreed..lol. Igor must have been pretty cool. You were the focus of the entire board during that storm..lol. We had a gtg if you will, down at Chatham Light when Earl went se of ACK and crapped the bed, but it was cool. The storm started looking less impressive for the Cape in the final 24 hours, but we had a good time. Got some 30-40kt gusts. Will and several others were down at the same location during Noel back in '07 when they had 70-80mph gusts. We really haven't been brushed or hit with a good TS or cane in years, outside of the Cape. Perhaps this year changes things. We'll never get the true, tropical core systems that Josh has a fetish for..lol, but I went through Gloria in '85 and Bob in '91 and have fond memories of both. Anyways OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Best videotaped landing of all time in heavy winds...2 minutes in. East asia airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I've received a few calls asking us if we agree about winds to 50kts at TXKF, and I agreed..lol. Igor must have been pretty cool. You were the focus of the entire board during that storm..lol. We had a gtg if you will, down at Chatham Light when Earl went se of ACK and crapped the bed, but it was cool. The storm started looking less impressive for the Cape in the final 24 hours, but we had a good time. Got some 30-40kt gusts. Will and several others were down at the same location during Noel back in '07 when they had 70-80mph gusts. We really haven't been brushed or hit with a good TS or cane in years, outside of the Cape. Perhaps this year changes things. We'll never get the true, tropical core systems that Josh has a fetish for..lol, but I went through Gloria in '85 and Bob in '91 and have fond memories of both. Anyways OT. Yeah hopefully we get something cool this summer. Blackstone is by far the least windy place I've lived. I lived in Buffalo, Oswego, and Bermuda..all very windy places. Now I live in the middle of a valley lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 This was during one of the gales they had over there a few winters ago. One of the scariest near landings/crashes I've ever seen. foreign carriers seem to have lower safety standards than US ones. BA or Air Canada will attempt a landing in near 35 kt cross winds that AA or US never would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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