mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I average about what Boston does. really? Hartford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Well I consider 12" or so in March to be relatively snowless after the Dec/Jan we've had If you look at all the huge years that front loaded big time Dec/Jan, Feb/Mar was pretty mundane in comparison. Even 1993-94 and 1995-96, Boston's "big 2". If we slip in as #3, it will be similar this year. So I disagree Ryan...it almost can't be 30+ in March without breaking a ton of seasonal records at all the big climo sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Well I consider 12" or so in March to be relatively snowless after the Dec/Jan we've had What I meant was that season saw a ton in Jan and hardly any in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 One possibility, just a thought here, is to read what is in the thread and what people are talking about. Because what people are talking about is a gradient pattern with SWFEs, not a huge NAO block. This pattern is for us not for you and it is the kind of pattern that can produce up here, as Will, Scott,etc have been telling you for 3 months. I've read what's in this thread very carefully; I certainly agree with Will that there's a trend towards a more -EPO in the medium/longer range with cold air pooling over Canada. The 18z GFS ENS show this very nicely with super cold air over NW Canada in the 11-15 day range and some of it spilling into eastern Canada due to a -NAO. In this pattern, New England will have the chance to see some nice SW flow events as pieces of energy eject from the western trough/-PNA. The problem is that the SE ridge is REALLY pumping and some of the storms get too warm for you if you believe the GFS for next week and the ECM for day 9-10. There's a limit to how much of a SE ridge you want, and we're definitely pushing it. I lived in Vermont during Winter 08-09 so I know what sort of regime gets it done...we had lots of SW flow events that dumped on Middlebury. But I just think people are exaggerating a little bit with this idea of winter returning with a vengeance. Does the pattern look great in the long range? No. Does it look terrible? Of course not... I average about what Boston does. Yup me too, just slightly less, about 39" per season. I probably get it a bit differently though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'll bet you $50 that I see at least 20" of snow in March. do it Ray!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I've read what's in this thread very carefully; I certainly agree with Will that there's a trend towards a more -EPO in the medium/longer range with cold air pooling over Canada. The 18z GFS ENS show this very nicely with super cold air over NW Canada in the 11-15 day range and some of it spilling into eastern Canada due to a -NAO. In this pattern, New England will have the chance to see some nice SW flow events as pieces of energy eject from the western trough/-PNA. The problem is that the SE ridge is REALLY pumping and some of the storms get too warm for you if you believe the GFS for next week and the ECM for day 9-10. There's a limit to how much of a SE ridge you want, and we're definitely pushing it. I lived in Vermont during Winter 08-09 so I know what sort of regime gets it done...we had lots of SW flow events that dumped on Middlebury. But I just think people are exaggerating a little bit with this idea of winter returning with a vengeance. Does the pattern look great in the long range? No. Does it look terrible? Of course not... Yup me too, just slightly less, about 39" per season. I probably get it a bit differently though. Just Rev trying to whip up conversations during an uninteresting period... yesterday most of the posts were about a certain someone's temp being 1* too cold... You made some interesting points, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The SE Ridge will win out at times, at other times the Bryan Adams cold will win out, case closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Good thing you don't live here where Winter is alive and well. ive actually realized the past couple years (because of all the snow and cold in places further south of I-80) that a lot of people who claim to enjoy snow really cant hack it all if they had to deal with the real thing on a daily basis. it goes to show you why 90% of canadian hate cold and snow and wish a neg AO for eternity, many people on this board would actualy fit right into that category if they had to deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 ive actually realized the past couple years (because of all the snow and cold in places further sotuh) that a lot of people who claim to enjoy snow really cant hack it all if they had to deal with the real thing. it goes to show you why 90% of canadian hate cold and snow and wish a neg AO for eternity, many people on this board would actualy fit right into that category if they had to deal with that. They also gave us Bryan Adams and Justin Bee-hive, so their taste is in their azz... (although they gave us hockey and Rush, so...hmmmmmm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I've read what's in this thread very carefully; I certainly agree with Will that there's a trend towards a more -EPO in the medium/longer range with cold air pooling over Canada. The 18z GFS ENS show this very nicely with super cold air over NW Canada in the 11-15 day range and some of it spilling into eastern Canada due to a -NAO. In this pattern, New England will have the chance to see some nice SW flow events as pieces of energy eject from the western trough/-PNA. The problem is that the SE ridge is REALLY pumping and some of the storms get too warm for you if you believe the GFS for next week and the ECM for day 9-10. There's a limit to how much of a SE ridge you want, and we're definitely pushing it. I lived in Vermont during Winter 08-09 so I know what sort of regime gets it done...we had lots of SW flow events that dumped on Middlebury. But I just think people are exaggerating a little bit with this idea of winter returning with a vengeance. Does the pattern look great in the long range? No. Does it look terrible? Of course not... Yup me too, just slightly less, about 39" per season. I probably get it a bit differently though. Be very careful young apprentice. One does not want to get bitten by the dog twice, while the cat is playing in the corner. This upcoming pattern is a c%$t hair away from being something special for those north of LIS, and even moreso north of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Be very careful young apprentice. One does not want to get bitten by the dog twice, while the cat is playing in the corner. This upcoming pattern is a c%$t hair away from being something special for those north of LIS, and even moreso north of 84. I think he's trying to use the same tactics. Last time he talked like this, the pattern worked out, so maybe he's trying it again? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I've read what's in this thread very carefully; I certainly agree with Will that there's a trend towards a more -EPO in the medium/longer range with cold air pooling over Canada. The 18z GFS ENS show this very nicely with super cold air over NW Canada in the 11-15 day range and some of it spilling into eastern Canada due to a -NAO. In this pattern, New England will have the chance to see some nice SW flow events as pieces of energy eject from the western trough/-PNA. The problem is that the SE ridge is REALLY pumping and some of the storms get too warm for you if you believe the GFS for next week and the ECM for day 9-10. There's a limit to how much of a SE ridge you want, and we're definitely pushing it. I lived in Vermont during Winter 08-09 so I know what sort of regime gets it done...we had lots of SW flow events that dumped on Middlebury. But I just think people are exaggerating a little bit with this idea of winter returning with a vengeance. Does the pattern look great in the long range? No. Does it look terrible? Of course not... Yup me too, just slightly less, about 39" per season. I probably get it a bit differently though. I think you know enough to know that the Rev gets a little hyperbolic.... you're just doin a little trolling (and I do mean little...) the pattern you describe above is a good pattern, especially in a winter that has already dropped 70+ region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 They also gave us Bryan Adams and Justin Bee-hive, so their taste is in their azz... (although they gave us hockey and Rush, so...hmmmmmm) yeah im talking about people from the south though, like S of I-80 .....not everyone, but many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Be very careful young apprentice. One does not want to get bitten by the dog twice, while the cat is playing in the corner. This upcoming pattern is a c%$t hair away from being something special for those north of LIS, and even moreso north of 84. Yeah I think we'll get into some good times in early March...end of February looks sort of mediocre for now, starting to pack it in for this month. All the analogs and models show the blocking coming back around 3/1 with more chance for sustained troughing in the East and the coldest air in the hemisphere moving into Canada. The only problem is that down here, except for a fluke, meaningful snow season ends around 3/20 or so, so we'll have limited opportunities to cash in on a big coastal. It'll also be almost impossible to build a snowpack at this latitude after the torch passes, even assuming we get a few good events in late February/early March. Walking to lunch today, I realized how strong and warm the sun has become even in the face of powerful CAA, and it's going to get a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yeah I think we'll get into some good times in early March...end of February looks sort of mediocre for now, starting to pack it in for this month. All the analogs and models show the blocking coming back around 3/1 with more chance for sustained troughing in the East and the coldest air in the hemisphere moving into Canada. The only problem is that down here, except for a fluke, meaningful snow season ends around 3/20 or so, so we'll have limited opportunities to cash in on a big coastal. It'll also be almost impossible to build a snowpack at this latitude after the torch passes, even assuming we get a few good events in late February/early March. Walking to lunch today, I realized how strong and warm the sun has become even in the face of powerful CAA, and it's going to get a lot worse. Its the same every year, and nothing will change that, and as you get older you will also understand how overrated sunangles and melting days are. Its going to snow again, even in DF. I would imagine the next two weeks are back and forth, cold>warm, snow taint rain snow. I think early March will rock, then climo takes over for you and I but up north they are in the game until at least 4/10. This thaw, was way overplayed because winter across nyc metro and sne has been fantastic, I think 51 days now of deep snowpack on the ct coast, I mean are you kidding me?? All good things come to an end, just the way it is, but even you and I have another 35 days at least at legit snow chances, enjoy them soon enough the cargos and red striped knee highs will be in all there glory. 19 average of 10" snowpack life is good young apprentice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I know I probably shouldn't post in the NE thread, but I do enjoy reading it. Anyway, cutoff season is and has been very good, even some historic snowstorms for the area (April 1982, April 1997, and countless of others). So I would reckon Ray can get 115+ inches for the season if he gets a bomb like April '97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 The uncertainty of March makes much hyperbole or claim of "winter over" or "big events over" pretty fleeting and useless as well as guarantees of an epic finish. As I mentioned several times before, the analogs were quite split between good ATL blocking returning in March vs kind of just status quo or even a torch for March in there. They did lean toward more stormy/cold but it was far from a consensus overwhelming favorite. The brutal cold that looks to be across most of Canada entering the beginning of March would probably incline me to lean a bit colder and snowier...but things can change between now and then obviously. Maybe it doesn't end up as cold as ensembles say or the pattern ends up totally different. As for the final week of February, I think we'll have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I know I probably shouldn't post in the NE thread, but I do enjoy reading it. Anyway, cutoff season is and has been very good, even some historic snowstorms for the area (April 1982, April 1997, and countless of others). So I would reckon Ray can get 115+ inches for the season if he gets a bomb like April '97. Where are you posting from? All are welcome here. Even NYC/Philly folk If Ray gets 115" he will get SNE comeback poster of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Where are you posting from? All are welcome here. Even NYC/Philly folk If Ray gets 115" he will get SNE comeback poster of the year I am posting from Northeastern New Jersey, Essex County. Well, 115 is a long shot, but its possible, I think you folks will get one more big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I know I probably shouldn't post in the NE thread, but I do enjoy reading it. Anyway, cutoff season is and has been very good, even some historic snowstorms for the area (April 1982, April 1997, and countless of others). So I would reckon Ray can get 115+ inches for the season if he gets a bomb like April '97. If I were an odds maker @ KVEG, I would set the over\under @ 100" for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 If I were an odds maker @ KVEG, I would set the over\under @ 100" for mby. 105" ... but some of that will be April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 105" ... but some of that will be April I'll take the over (100")....I expect a total pretty similar to the 107.5" that I finished with in 2005, which is my 2nd greatest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Woonsocket RI has 48.8" but they are missing the 1/21 event which probably dropped like 5-6"...and also the "appetizer" event the day before the 1/26-27 event which was probably around 3". Their December data looks a shade low too. So they are likely closer to 60" or so. The PVD number does look a bit low but not by a huge margin. The cocorahs around PVD support their numbers, WestbGloucester was high depth 35 in RI , Enfield 40 in CT Grovnor MA had 45 all on 2/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'll take the over (100")....I expect a total pretty similar to the 107.5" that I finished with in 2005, which is my 2nd greatest winter on record. As I recall...when telling you in late September you'd get over 90, you promised me 2 dinners. I owe Messenger one. I'll hold you to just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 As I recall...when telling you in late September you'd get over 90, you promised me 2 dinners. I owe Messenger one. I'll hold you to just one. I'll pay up at subsequent gtgs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm out early, tonight....I'd wish ya luck on the 00z suite, but don't think we need it....regardless of how much rain the GFS tries to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'll pay up at subsequent gtgs. You don't have to buy 2...but I'll be happy with one and so will you given the implications of what transpires to make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Don't look now but GFS has all of SNE in a decent snow event Monday night/Tuesday. As of now...Euro FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Don't look now but GFS has all of SNE in a decent snow event Monday night/Tuesday. As of now...Euro FTW. Yeah much more Euro-esque now with that system. Good sign. Still 6 days out though...but at least its on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Nice run tonight. Only 1 clunker and even that can have some potential trends. What a difference from 12/18Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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