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January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs III


Baroclinic Zone

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Probably a good 20-32" snowpack here overall.Some spots drifted over 4'.

I seem to have approx 23-24 in the most reliable spots in my yard. There are some major drifts and some of the piles after plowing and shoveling are obscene. On some roads here the piles are even larger than me they must be approaching 6.5 feet.

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I seem to have approx 23-24 in the most reliable spots in my yard. There are some major drifts and some of the piles after plowing and shoveling are obscene. On some roads here the piles are even larger than me they must be approaching 6.5 feet.

I'd say close to that here too. Maybe 18-20" or so in the most drifted and exposed areas, but I'd say on avg, probably near 2'. It still doesn't compare to what we had after the 6-10" dumpings that occurred post '96 bliz and '05 bliz, but I think this is the most I've seen since then. Perhaps in 1994 my snowpack was as deep....after the big OES enhanced storm.

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I'd say close to that here too. Maybe 18-20" or so in the most drifted and exposed areas, but I'd say on avg, probably near 2'. It still doesn't compare to what we had after the 6-10" dumpings that occurred post '96 bliz and '05 bliz, but I think this is the most I've seen since then. Perhaps in 1994 my snowpack was as deep....after the big OES enhanced storm.

If we can somehow make a MECS out of next weeks event, then this snowpack will easily compare if not surpass the deepest snowpack here.

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It real wrong for me down to Windcredible

It was wrong here also, but that's because the FAA seems to be ditching the contract observer at JFK for undisclosed reasons (they hadnt even measured the last event.) When everyone in the area has 16"-17", 10" does look suspicious.

http://www.erh.noaa....ow&centeron=BOX

Im the 16.4 in this report-- I always like these graphics better than the PNS's..... really shows you the whole area. Plus the liquid equivalent they had somehow ended up being 1.00 while everyone else had 1.8" or so and yet they reported 3 straight hours of near 0 vis with heavy snow, more than either EWR or LGA or NYC for that matter.

METAR KJFK 270651Z 35016KT 1/8SM R04R/2800V4000FT SN FZFG VV006 M01/M02

A2957 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP011 SNINCR 2/11 PRESENT WX DRSN

P0016 T10061022 $

METAR KJFK 270551Z 36019KT 1/8SM R04R/1000V1200FT +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M02

A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 36026/0512 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP004 SNINCR 2/9

PRESENT WX DRSN 4/009 P0017 60046 T10061022 10011 21006 53012

$

METAR KJFK 270451Z 34013KT 1/8SM R04R/1200V1600FT +SN FG VV003 00/M02

A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 36037/0425 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP016 SNINCR 1/7

PRESENT WX DRSN P0011 T00001017 400111039 $

METAR KJFK 270351Z 36026G34KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT +SN FZFG BLSN VV002

M01/M02 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 36034/0349 SFC VIS 1/4 PLE00

PRESFR SLP979 SNINCR 1/6 P0012 T10061022 $

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The RGEM was the model of choice 48 hrs in. In the medium range, the Euro was the model of choice. That's all I'm saying. As for the NAM, it did many things right, but if you had to give a forecast off of it (and many did), you would be burned. The speed of the system was just a point in saying that the Euro's performance was not as bad as perceived. 5 days ago it was the best guidance we had (not just bc of QPF). People only remember yesterday.

I'd agree. It makes it almost impossible to tell exactly what it's showing...how many shades of green and yellow can they use?

You are missing the point entirely. A couple of days ago it buried Logan11 and people up north where they got little or nothing depending on the area. If you were xx miles NW and got nothing, you'd not be saying it was best. It went from being an epic regionwide storm to being confined to coastal areas flipping from one wrong extreme to the other wrong extreme. It was just as overblown to the snowy/expansive side outside of 48 hours as it was underdone inside of 48. The only reason you're saying it's "better" than any other model is at one point two days ago it showed QPF representative of the types of snow you got. It didn't show that inside of 24/48 hours, and prior to that it was way overblown N and NW.

What's your point on the NAM? I could care less about the speed of the system, all I said was it had the right idea first on an elongated system with two stages. It was not great otherwise most of the time although about 1 out of 3 runs it generally did get the dynamics right. The point was never that the NAM was best, better or even all that good. The point was the acclaim for the euro - well it just doesn't gel with what went down for guys well W and NNW, and again what it did inside of 48 hours.

Arguing that a model got it right because 5 runs ago it nailed it...silly. I don't think it's really all that close, the RGEM had an outstanding idea of where the sharp cutoff would be and IMO did a great job indicating as others have said the banding would set up on the NW side of that line like always in addition to the second max down here.

Saying the Euro was right because it once painted a lot of precip - so did the JMA. It covered 5 states with death and destruction...it got it right in CT and parts of MA/RI...so it was good too?

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Wow...you were certainly right about that.

I can attest to that in 2006 feb storm as I had sixteen inches of snow in the se part of spfd while just two miles away downtown by mardi gras where I used to work had less than ten inches and just nw of that it rapidly dropped off to less than a half foot with Northampton only getting three or four inches..and just to e/se of me amounts to over 20 inches were recorded ( hampden..suffield..etc).

Last night's version although a little less extreme is another perfect example of that.

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Anyone have any idea on ratios? The snow was far wetter and heavier than I would have ever imagined. I was thinking ten to one maybe eleven to one at best?? Seemed like snow growth lacked for awhile to when it got going and then improved dramatically later and right before the snow started to pick up I had some freezing drizzle and a few little ice pellets.

Boy it is a ct and nyc metro winter that is for sure!! My aunt and uncle in Rye Ny just celebrated ( well i say celebrate but I do not think they see it with as much enthusiasm) their third foot plus storm in a month with nearly sixty inches for the season already...twice their normal!! The high lands of fairfield county must have places with nearly eighty inches!!!! Just sick!! So far I am really glad I am in southern mass, I almost wish I was about twenty miles to the east/south east but that is the true weenie in me..never quite satisfied when it comes to snow!!

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Great system...enjoyed it immensely...thrilled I planned a little sleep and awoke at 2AM in time for the party.

As others have noted...epic snow pack....simply astounding. My wife..who is used to my hype and sometimes rolls her eyes had them wide open in shock when she looked out the window upon awakening as the snow was ending.

Kevin...those snowbanks are amazing. Next GTG at your house...we'll cater and buy your wife something nice. Let's hope we can do it while the pack is high. (There...I invited myself and everyone else to your house.....lol...)

My only beef is what Zeus alluded to. Logan Airport is a piss poor representative of the Boston snow climate. It would be like having JFK representing NYC.. In events that had a cf with taint that only effected East Boston but nowhere downtown per everyone I spoke to, having them 9.9 while the rest of us were close to a foot is unfair. Same goes for summer temps...downtown 87, BOS 69. Use the Common, Kenmore, event MIT. Much more representative. Ok beef over...wonderful storm.

Today's modeling brings to mind one of the all time greats....1993-94. We're snowpacking without melting like that year but KUing like 2 years later. What an epic year....and Tip's thread as well as guidance suggests we're not ending anytime soon. I'm savoring every moment......my winters are more numbered than you younger folks and if we go into a 10 year slump, I might not see a good one again until I'm in my mid 70s. But as always...remember.....Long....Live....Winter!! WHOOOOOOO!!!! :weenie:

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Getting into the model discussion of verification, I mentioned this this morning.

I thought the Euro was the best signal for the type of storm days away but agree CMC was pretty solid inside 5 days...probably should be judged the best. NAM was the 1st to pick up the meso lows and split and GFS was very good in the final run at 18Z. So they all had their strengths and weaknesses. But medium range the Euro was pretty solid if you don't have fine tooth comb expectation. Euro, CMC, and UKMET had the storm. GFS was pretty late to that party.

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Great system...enjoyed it immensely...thrilled I planned a little sleep and awoke at 2AM in time for the party.

As others have noted...epic snow pack....simply astounding. My wife..who is used to my hype and sometimes rolls her eyes had them wide open in shock when she looked out the window upon awakening as the snow was ending.

Kevin...those snowbanks are amazing. Next GTG at your house...we'll cater and buy your wife something nice. Let's hope we can do it while the pack is high. (There...I invited myself and everyone else to your house.....lol...)

My only beef is what Zeus alluded to. Logan Airport is a piss poor representative of the Boston snow climate. It would be like having JFK representing NYC.. In events that had a cf with taint that only effected East Boston but nowhere downtown per everyone I spoke to, having them 9.9 while the rest of us were close to a foot is unfair. Same goes for summer temps...downtown 87, BOS 69. Use the Common, Kenmore, event MIT. Much more representative. Ok beef over...wonderful storm.

Today's modeling brings to mind one of the all time greats....1993-94. We're snowpacking without melting like that year but KUing like 2 years later. What an epic year....and Tip's thread as well as guidance suggests we're not ending anytime soon. I'm savoring every moment......my winters are more numbered than you younger folks and if we go into a 10 year slump, I might not see a good one again until I'm in my mid 70s. But as always...remember.....Long....Live....Winter!! WHOOOOOOO!!!! :weenie:

We busted low Dude for the winter, who would have thought. I am ashamed now my rep is shot.

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get a new ruler man your is broken

i am in middletown and we got 26 from the blizzard alone

officially 21 inches new snow now thats 21+26+6+4=57 inches on the ground here

I'm going to make a statement that I think is probably fact. You don't have 57 inches of snow on the ground. Period.

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Just got done shoveling on no sleep and I am toast.

12.5" final

Depth: Ranges from 25.5" in the most exposed spot to 32.5" in the most heavily shaded spot, thus the avg depth of 29" eclipses my previous high of 27" in Jan 1996...and this one will not be consmed by a torch in short order....BEST WINTER OF MY LIFE.

I knew you'd crush me, and it wasn't even close.

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