dtk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The general consensus is that they aren't trash anymore. A certain met mentioned earlier in this thread says he treats them a little like an ensemble member of the previous 0z or 12z run. Basically there are some updates to the starting conditions from the previous runs which theoretically should yield a more accurate solution. There is probably more to it than that (more aircraft obs,, etc ingested) but the point is it isn't garbage. This is generally correct. There are plots out there, but in terms of forecast skill, all four cycles are pretty much equally skillful (statistically speaking). It's always possible for any individual realization (00z/12z included) to be an outlier. We have a wealth of observations even at 06z/18z (satellite and satellite based products, surface, aircraft, GPS radio occultation, wind profilers, etc.), so this isn't terribly surprising. However, it's always possible for some individual feature to get sampled/resolved (particularly in getting its vertical structure correct) as it reaches the more dense/accurate/reliable radiosonde network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know what'll be really interesting, the 18z GEFS. I wonder how many members will show a solution west of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I should probably get my wrists slapped for even saying this, but I think its a fair observation (an observation, not a forecast) that last week the American model operational runs were holding to a big storm for last Sunday with the Euro well east until the Thursday before the event [the event that wasn't] when the Euro came out with a huge storm for the this area and the American models flipped to an OTS solution, only for all to come to OTS consensus on Friday This week has followed the exact same pattern so far, except that the coast-hugger and OTS roles have been reversed. Make whatever conclusions you want about whether that means anything in this case, but don't come crying to me if you post them in a model thread and wind up with a 5 post limit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If that whole setup was like 100 - 200 miles west, that would have been golden Is'nt that the truth. Obviously the trends the last 24 hours are to take this just east but to still, for the most part, bomb it out intensely. That being said I still say the door is open for it to come back west some. It is just a matter of how open that door is and how far west it could come if it does at all. The immediate coast LI and SE New England are obviously in the best postion to take advantage of this system as only small adjustments westward bring those areas back into a decent to significant hit and in actualality far SE New England is legitimately in the threat zone currently. I-95 & west it is a bit more troublesome, I suspect, to get a shift west enough to bring more then light to perhaps moderate snow. But then again with such a dynamic system on tap with multiple pieces of enegy trying to come together it is within the realm of possibilites to head back towards Euroish type solution we saw yesterday though not as extreme. I'd say there is ~1 in 4 chance that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Check out 300mb charts on the GFS on the 72, 78, and 84 hour panels! That has the look of a SEMa blizzard! 200mb is pretty beautiful as well. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_300_072l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_300_078l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_300_084l.gif Trof is sharper, despite axis a hair east. Esp noticeable at h5. Looks a lot like GGEM a few nights ago. I've been expecting a track and strength almost exactly as depicted by the 18z GFS and see no reason to change now, but it would not be impossible for the SLP to tuck in closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OK. I am reinvested ... unbelievably. Those 3 maps eduggs posted is the clincher to get me back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lock this solution up. Its not the best but that verbatim depiction of 3-5" for me on the 18z is good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's a shame after a month of frigid weather and no snow, we get one chance for a snowstorm then a nice fat ridge to melt it all away. Sadly, the Euro agrees with this. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_180m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's a shame after a month of frigid weather and no snow, we get one chance for a snowstorm then a nice fat ridge to melt it all away. Sadly, the Euro agrees with this. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_180m.gif Look at the block, it's gone. There's no way the New Year's storm gives any of us snow unless something drastically changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes, there was a snow storm a few days before that, which gets forgotten about. I love those snow gradient maps on your site; 2002-03 has the weirdest snowfall gradient though-- basically there doesnt seem to be one lol. All of Long Island got hammered that season. 2/7/03 - 7" 2/10/03 - 3" I checked my notes...the snowdepth before the start of PD2 was 5", not 6". I could be thinking of a different event, but if memory serves the 3" on 2/10 was very wet and it was mostly rain in Nassau and NYC. It was a soggy acumulation here on top of the old snow. Max snow depth was 23". On the other hand we had a couple of inches on the ground prior to 1/7/96, so we might have hit 24" snow depth that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like maybe 2-3" in NYC. A depiction of .2 liquid with an offshore SLP undergoing rapid deepening can mean a dusting or a poorly resolved meso-band on the periphery that drops 6" It rarely works out to 2" exactly. Light to moderate fringe QPF is especially unreliable. I would consider it generally a miss until we are well inside the .25 isopleth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not throwing in the towel yet since I keep seeing varying solutions. Hey, you really never know what could happen This is what I said after the 12z euro when many folks were sealing the deal on this. While it could very well go out to sea, I'm a bit surprised to see folks knowledgable about meteorology write off an event 78-84 hours away. As the 18z GFS indicates, a small shift in the H5 pattern and we're easily back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Earthlight, that is a beautiful panel you showed us. Literally a phase just an hour or two earlier could be the difference. We shall see, we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am tempted to repost the same Jim Carrey "Dumb and Dumber" scene that about 30 other people have reposted recently. Partly because I really feel that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 just saw the euro ensembles. the op is definitely on the far right side of the spaghetti plots. Do you have a link? Or can you elaborate? I'm trying to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh, what the heck: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh, what the heck: Eh the Rambo nothing is over vid is better, but the earlier SERFs showing a good deal of members at the BM might have been onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean is similar to 12z, maybe a hair east. I DO like the fact, though, that there's more QPF - probably indicating a few big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, I have to go and leave for a few hours, but 18Z looked better than 12Z. Hopefully 0Z will have a blizzard along the EC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean is similar to 12z, maybe a hair east. I DO like the fact, though, that there's more QPF - probably indicating a few big hits. Looks pretty bleak to me. And worse than 12z. 18z http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif 12z http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks pretty bleak to me. And worse than 12z. 18z http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif 12z http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12072.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif Yeah, I just realized I was looking at an old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Look at the block, it's gone. There's no way the New Year's storm gives any of us snow unless something drastically changes. At this point I don't care. Let it rain. I hope we torch for a bit as well. I could use a couple weeks of mid 40's to mid 50's right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, I just realized I was looking at an old run. It possibly means a bigger spread - will be interesting to see how many hits there are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 heres the 18z gfs indiv ens runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 heres the 18z gfs indiv ens runs p004 DESTROYS the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 p004 DESTROYS the mean. Actually none of the individuals are a big hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Actually none of the individuals are a big hit... They aren't bad. 0z should be interesting. I would be happy with an inch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks like HPC is leaning a bit wetter than not: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Eh the Rambo nothing is over vid is better, but the earlier SERFs showing a good deal of members at the BM might have been onto something. This might be more appropo than Rambo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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