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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

am19psu

By am19psu,
in New York City Metro

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am19psu

am19psu

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Question for you as well: Do you believe after this possible non-event the advantages of 4DVAR are negligible and the need for it on the GFS are now presumably not as rushed?

Now, if we start talking about 4DVAR with longer time windows, it gets more complicated.....

That's what we call foreshadowing in the business, folks

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dtk

dtk

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Question for you as well: Do you believe after this possible non-event the advantages of 4DVAR are negligible and the need for it on the GFS are now presumably not as rushed?

No. We get a LOT out of our 3DVAR but we need to strive to improve (btw, this may not necessarily mean 4DVAR; we're also working on some newer; ensemble-based methods).

You can never make an argument about something being good/bad or worthwhile given a single event/set of forecasts (this can mean a method, a model, anything)....it's just way too small of a sample. In fact, I think a 4DVAR-based GFS would have produced better forecasts than our operational GFS had, but that's just my opinion.

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Ridingtime

Ridingtime

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No. We get a LOT out of our 3DVAR but we need to strive to improve (btw, this may not necessarily mean 4DVAR; we're also working on some newer; ensemble-based methods).

You can never make an argument about something being good/bad or worthwhile given a single event/set of forecasts (this can mean a method, a model, anything)....it's just way too small of a sample. In fact, I think a 4DVAR-based GFS would have produced better forecasts than our operational GFS had, but that's just my opinion.

Thanks for the answer and :lol: at the foreshadowing

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Zelocita Weather

Zelocita Weather

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It was pretty bad locally. Of course you guys had 2/10 and the Snowicane so that kind of made or broke the winter.

Even though I was 60% above normal snow wise, was the worst 'good' winter Ive ever been through. Missed 2 of the biggest snow storms the Mid Atlantic has seen by no less than 40-50 miles each, and snow that I did get did not last that long...Feb 6 was the worst storm experience I ever went tthrough, and Dec 19th wasnt much better.

But overall tough to complain with 48" with a normal of 30".

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

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Even though I was 60% above normal snow wise, was the worst 'good' winter Ive ever been through. Missed 2 of the biggest snow storms the Mid Atlantic has seen by no less than 40-50 miles each, and snow that I did get did not last that long...Feb 6 was the worst storm experience I ever went tthrough, and Dec 19th wasnt much better.

But overall tough to complain with 48" with a normal of 30".

Yes, agree 100% with this. I would still consider last winter very good and I can't complain too much (I ended up with 46.5''), but it was still quite frustrating at times, and I feel like I got screwed over compared to a lot of places around me. Dec. 19 and Feb. 6, while both decent moderate snowstorms IMBY, were nothing like the historic 20+'' snowstorms that they were not too far to my south. Dec. 19 was agonizing because it took so unbearably long to get started up here and the heaviest snow stayed just to my south, while the insane cutoff and heavy snow JUST to my south made Feb. 6 even more unbearable. The Feb. 10 event was very good here (the only event that actually lived up to my expectations), but the Feb. 25-26 event was the most frustrating of all. I was stuck in a dryslot for almost the entire first part of the event, and I got far less than what I was expecting. However, once again areas not too far away from me got very high totals, only this time those places were north and east of me instead of south and west. All in all last winter was very good but also quite frustrating at the same time.

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Collegestudent11

Collegestudent11

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I have another question for the nice meteorologist answering questions. I learned after i observed model runs that the data comes from a system of stations which provide observations, of which aircrafts are a large part. Here is my question, what happens when there are a significant amount of flights canceled due to a storm, how does the data get fed into the system?

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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It was pretty bad locally. Of course you guys had 2/10 and the Snowicane so that kind of made or broke the winter.

Its funny, but alot of people remember 2/25 and not 2/10 as much because the disaster that happened on 2/6....had the 2/6 event come up the coast obviously most of the NYC area stations either have their snowiest winter on record or comes close to it...Central Park had 52.0 I believe and needed 24 inches more, they'd have probably gotten within 5-6 inches of that on the bottom side at the very worst....as it turns out CPK never even made the top 10 as there was amazingly no snow at all in March.

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dryslotted

dryslotted

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Love the avatar and the goalpost reference!

Thanks bro, didn't realize there was another retro Eagles avatar out there. Sorry to copy, but it's really cool. I was just remembering the other day the kelly green Eagles coat I had in the 80s with the hood that unzipped and laid flat on the back and the embroidered logo on the front.

Here's to a faster phase at 0z! :drunk:

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