NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

[atownwxwatcher]

FWIW

WINTER STORM STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUN-MON...

IN THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS CONTINUED TO NARROW CONCERNING THETRACK AND OTHER DETAILS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM AFFECTING THEEAST COAST DAYS 3-4...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE AND CONSISTENTMODEL TREND OBSERVED FOR FASTER NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION.EARLIER PREFERENCES WERE FOR A SCENARIO CLOSEST TO THE 06Z GFSWHICH REPRESENTED AN AVERAGE OF THE MOST WESTWARD 00Z ECMWF ANDMORE EASTWARD 00Z GFS...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THEUKMET/CANADIAN SOUTH AND/OR EAST OF AN OTHERWISE NARROWING CLUSTEROF GUIDANCE AND THUS WERE NOT SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED. DESPITEIMPROVED CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS AND SOME CONSISTENCY INTRENDS...IT REMAINS PREMATURE TO PICK A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTICSOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGIONHAS ONLY RECENTLY ENTERED THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONALNETWORK...AND THUS IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE ANOTHER 1 OR 2 MODEL RUNSAT LEAST TO RESOLVE THE MULTIPLE STREAM INTERACTIONS WHICH ISCRUCIAL TO A SUCCESSFUL FORECAST IN THIS SHORTWAVE PATTERN.THUS...THE FINAL PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE ONLY NUDGED ABOUT MIDWAYBETWEEN THE 06-12Z GFS...WHICH CREDITS THE NEW CONSENSUS FOR AFASTER SOLUTION WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AS THE PRECISETRACK FORECAST STILL CONTAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. JAMES

[dryslotted]

18Z NAM is OTS.

The low splits the uprights btwn Bermuda and the Carolina coast...sheesh...

[tmagan]

Nova Scotia may be in good shape.

[tmagan]

Who wants to bet the next NAM frame will show some form of a Norlun trough?

[NaoPos]

Who wants to bet the next NAM frame will show some form of a Norlun trough?

Not a question of if , but, to what extent..

[green tube]

In case people didn't see it in the other thread...

Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east.

This storm has been a major dissapointment.

you know in MS Paint you can "type" in text.

it would help ease the lol factor.

[LVblizzard]

Let's use some of the weenie phrases to bring back hope for this event.

"The ensembles are west of the op, so that should be a red flag."

"The models can't handle phasing!"

"Remember Jan. 25, 2000?"

"Just a small difference in timing could change everything."

[Jefflaw77]

I was just thinking about this past decade and its truly amazing how we've been so spoiled. 10 years and 10 12"+ events. December 2000, February 2003, December 2003, January 2005, February 2006, March 2009, December 2009, February 2010 6th, February 2010 10th, February 2010 25th-26th. What's the normal around here - a 12" storm every 4 years or so? We've seen one on average every single year since 2000, at least in my area.

Who knows, if this threat doesn't produce, we may have better luck getting snow w/ moderating temps. At least then we'll probably see the gradient move north w/ overrunning.

You have a very valid point and others have commented about this... From 1969 to 1996- on Long Island, there were only roughly 10 events that i'd say were "great." The Lindsey Storm in 1969, the 2 storms in 1978, Feb, 1983, a 1987 storm (11-13" roughly), Superstorm 1993 (still only 10" fell) and obviously Jan. 1996..

It wasn't until Dec. 30th, 2000 that we entered into this new "era." The last decade has been amazing.. And obviously 2009/10 was just out of this world.. The bottom line is we've been spoiled for so many years..

It wouldn't be so bad if we went back to the old days where we'd get a 7" event and would seriously all be happy.. In the 80's and 90's when it snowed- and we got more than 3" it was considered pretty good.. I remember plenty of storms in the 3-6" range and whenever you got a 7"-11" event it was "BIG." 1996 changed that for me and since then have always wanted storms to meet or exceed that threshold..

In the past decade, the best events on LI were 1996, Dec. 2000 (this was only about 12" though) Feb. 2003, Dec. 2003, January 2004, January 2005, Feb. 2006, and December 2009.. We didn't get blasted as much as other areas in Feb. 2010... What's funny is that in all of these events, I only measured 20+" in 1996, and maybe December 2009... (IMBY) - Every other storm was in the 13-19" range as far as measurements were concerned..

I've still have yet to have measured a true 24" event in all my life in western suffolk..

[tmagan]

I've still have yet to have measured a true 24" event in all my life in western suffolk..

You should of in Jan. 1996.

[tcutter]

What makes this hurt the most was that is was originally progged to be on Christmas day (at least to me)

[A-L-E-X]

I was just thinking about this past decade and its truly amazing how we've been so spoiled. 10 years and 10 12"+ events. December 2000, February 2003, December 2003, January 2005, February 2006, March 2009, December 2009, February 2010 6th, February 2010 10th, February 2010 25th-26th. What's the normal around here - a 12" storm every 4 years or so? We've seen one on average every single year since 2000, at least in my area.

Who knows, if this threat doesn't produce, we may have better luck getting snow w/ moderating temps. At least then we'll probably see the gradient move north w/ overrunning.

Yes, if people would remember the 80s and most of the 90s, theyd realize how rare big snowfalls are around here. I will still consider HECS for us to be 16" + snowstorms since they are supposed to occur only once every 10 years. An 8 incher usually happens once every 3 years, but we actually saw a footer every winter from 2002-03 thru 2005-06 (and 5 out of six years if you include 2000-01, even with the March 01 miss) and three of them in 2009-10!

It's probably much more common to go thru a 5 year period without even seeing a 6 inch snowfall, something which was quite common in the 70s, 80s and 90s!

[KEITH L.I]

You have a very valid point and others have commented about this... From 1969 to 1996- on Long Island, there were only roughly 10 events that i'd say were "great." The Lindsey Storm in 1969, the 2 storms in 1978, Feb, 1983, a 1987 storm (11-13" roughly), Superstorm 1993 (still only 10" fell) and obviously Jan. 1996..

It wasn't until Dec. 30th, 2000 that we entered into this new "era." The last decade has been amazing.. And obviously 2009/10 was just out of this world.. The bottom line is we've been spoiled for so many years..

It wouldn't be so bad if we went back to the old days where we'd get a 7" event and would seriously all be happy.. In the 80's and 90's when it snowed- and we got more than 3" it was considered pretty good.. I remember plenty of storms in the 3-6" range and whenever you got a 7"-11" event it was "BIG." 1996 changed that for me and since then have always wanted storms to meet or exceed that threshold..

In the past decade, the best events on LI were 1996, Dec. 2000 (this was only about 12" though) Feb. 2003, Dec. 2003, January 2004, January 2005, Feb. 2006, and December 2009.. We didn't get blasted as much as other areas in Feb. 2010... What's funny is that in all of these events, I only measured 20+" in 1996, and maybe December 2009... (IMBY) - Every other storm was in the 13-19" range as far as measurements were concerned..

I've still have yet to have measured a true 24" event in all my life in western suffolk..

great post..yes we are all spoiled including me ..the 00 decade was great!!

[ArtRosen]

I hate it when the models tease you with snow then take it away at the last second.

It's kind of like olivia wilde walking up to you and starting to take her shirt off and underneath her shirt is this big, fat hairy ass dude.... that's what i feel like i just saw. argh!!

[A-L-E-X]

The low splits the uprights btwn Bermuda and the Carolina coast...sheesh...

Hmmm, reminds me of a lot of the east coast tropical cyclone "threats" from this past season.

[A-L-E-X]

I'd actually argue we entered the "new era" in 2002-03, as we had a huge bust to end 2000-01 and 2001-02 was about as bad as winter can get around here.

[Jefflaw77]

I'd actually argue we entered the "new era" in 2002-03, as we had a huge bust to end 2000-01 and 2001-02 was about as bad as winter can get around here.

That's true- those winters did stink.. Now here is the question for all you guys... how many BUSTS were there in the past 20 years- since 1988 say... Someone mentioned 2/89, ( i think nyc was suppose to get hit w/ this one - and AC got 18" in that one.. not sure if i am thinking about the right one)

But, if anyone can come up with a list of MAJOR Busts, i'd like to see how many times, models portrayed a pretty good hit only to take it away from us.. I believe, 3/2001 was probably the worst.. Again, though i'd love to hear the details to that one and any other major busts..

Jeff

[Saturn510]

Did the UKie , KMA, or JMA have us getting snow at somepoint during their runs this past week? I dont remember. I kept saying to my self each time someone posted the UK met that it was on crack. But i guess it was right all along. I think the the jma only came close for one or two cycles. The GFS was ok i guess for its close but no cigar solutions from day 6 to now

[tombo82685]

you know what is pretty scary. Tony said that he was going to follow the fim model, that never once showed a hot on the ec lol. The fim is the king.

[tmagan]

Did the UKie , KMA, or JMA have us getting snow at somepoint during their runs this past week? I dont remember. I kept saying to my self each time someone posted the UK met that it was on crack. But i guess it was right all along. I think the the jma only came close for one or two cycles. The GFS was ok i guess for its close but no cigar solutions from day 6 to now

The KMA once, then went with its OTS scenario.

[Saturn510]

Thanks tom for your play by play each day. Hopefully you can get some rest now.

[uncle W]

the new era started in 1993 with the super storm in March...Before that NYC's last 10" plus storm was February 1983...The longest stretch without a 10" snowfall...Since 92-93 NYC has gotten 10" storms 10 out of 17 seasons...The record for consecutive years with at least a 10" snowfall was three before it was broken in 1996 and tied in 2006...

season...amount

1992-93...10.6"

1993-94...12.5"

1994-95...10.8"

1995-96...20.2"

1995-96...10.7"

2000-01...12.0"

2002-03...19.8"

2003-04...14.0"

2004-05...13.8"

2005-06...26.9"

2009-10...10.9"

2009-10...10.0"

2009-10...20.9"

[LVblizzard]

I wouldn't be surprised if the 0z GFS/Euro went back to grazing the cities. Their ensembles are pretty far west, and the Euro ensembles still have a good number of sfc lows tucked in under Long Island. This threat may be a longshot but it's not over yet.

[goldstar]

I won't stop believing, partially b/c I am totally addicted to tracking winter threats, maybe it is like gambling, the ups with the lows and all that jazz.

[A-L-E-X]

the new era started in 1993 with the super storm in March...Before that NYC's last 10" plus storm was February 1983...The longest stretch without a 10" snowfall...Since 92-93 NYC has gotten 10" storms 10 out of 17 seasons...The record for consecutive years with at least a 10" snowfall was three before it was broken in 1996 and tied in 2006...

season...amount

1992-93...10.6"

1993-94...12.5"

1994-95...10.8"

1995-96...20.2"

1995-96...10.7"

2000-01...12.0"

2002-03...19.8"

2003-04...14.0"

2004-05...13.8"

2005-06...26.9"

2009-10...10.9"

2009-10...10.0"

2009-10...20.9"

Wow, some nice numbers there Unc and it falls right in line with my memory of NEVER having had a single snow day the entire time I was in public school lol.

[daxx]

Day 3 QPF.

[A-L-E-X]

That's true- those winters did stink.. Now here is the question for all you guys... how many BUSTS were there in the past 20 years- since 1988 say... Someone mentioned 2/89, ( i think nyc was suppose to get hit w/ this one - and AC got 18" in that one.. not sure if i am thinking about the right one)

But, if anyone can come up with a list of MAJOR Busts, i'd like to see how many times, models portrayed a pretty good hit only to take it away from us.. I believe, 3/2001 was probably the worst.. Again, though i'd love to hear the details to that one and any other major busts..

Jeff

The most recent major bust I can think of (within 24 hrs of the event) was Jan 2008.

[ARyan]

So...HPC and OKX are still giving the storm a shot...I know I will be here for the 0z runs, who else will be? Also, our shortwave is becoming more neutrally tilted.

[Ericjcrash]

So...HPC and OKX are still giving the storm a shot...I know I will be here for the 0z runs, who else will be? Also, our shortwave is becoming more neutrally tilted.

I'll be watching, the 18z NAM was promising.

[jm1220]

Sounds like the Euro ensembles basically haven't budged in days.

I'm just not optimistic at all with the storm. The southern feature looks to be more cooperative again, but this northern stream feature seems to want to run out ahead and broaden the trough out, preventing a full on phase until the storm's long gone. It seems there's always something new popping up to disrupt the storm. The OTS models are as firm as ever, and the Euro as well as GFS are caving in that direction. The ensembles probably will soon too unless something dramatically changes on future runs. Everything should be well sampled in the models by now as well.

I agree the threat's not completely over, but I wouldn't give it more than a 5-10 percent chance at this juncture (at 4" or more for NYC). Eastern LI might be more like 20%. If 0z tonight doesn't start backpedaling west, I think it's really about over in terms of any threat.

[Bilas]

So...HPC and OKX are still giving the storm a shot...I know I will be here for the 0z runs, who else will be? Also, our shortwave is becoming more neutrally tilted.

I will be watching nothing is set in stone even though it does not look promising you never know hoping for a Christmas miracle!!