earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I do not usually kid around with my personal independent snow forecasts. Understood, don't forget to inform your clients of your shift to the east and make sure to include the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We still have the GEFS Ensembles I'll take P001 and go down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 simply epic I had the axis of heaviest snow over my area before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I do not usually kid around with my personal independent snow forecasts. You get a check + young man... Seriously though, I am hoping that the Euro ensembles give us something else to consider after the bitter op run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Understood, don't forget to inform your clients of your shift to the east and make sure to include the map Thanks for the advice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 honestly, i think the best route may be to route for the overunning to get stronger on each run. That would bring some lgt snow to the area on christmas Before today's 12z runs, I was thinking about where we were over the weekend. We were rooting for the bowling ball solution to put down a few inches in the Christmas Eve/Christmas Day time frame. Then the Euro started teasing us with the wound up phased idea and we got greedy. It was sort of like "Let Make a Deal". We had the years supply of Rice-A-Roni in our hand, but we wanted what was behind door #3 instead. So maybe it's back to square one and the overrunning idea pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. JB called this a Maine/NS Red Dot Special a week ago you con artist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A consensus on the models 72 hours out is very convincing, to say the least. Not to mention that the CRAS is the only model showing snow for me, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks for the advice! snowlover - you are awesome.. keep up the good work, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 In case people didn't see it in the other thread... Because the models have shifted east, I am forced to move my axis of heaviest snow about 100-150 miles further east. This storm has been a major dissapointment. :lmao: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 JB called this a Maine/NS Red Dot Special a week ago you con artist Really? Quite interesting. Did he mention about the orangey and yellowish colors down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just drowned my sorrow for the storm that won't be in a big McDonald's chocolate shake. I suggest you all do something similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe the 18z NAM will push this thing into the Bahamas. Honestly at this point I am rooting for the storm to miss everyone including ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just drowned my sorry for the storm that won't be in a big McDonald's chocolate shake. I suggest you all do something similar The Mrs. and I just got Domino's and had some Christmas cookies while downing a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know, perhaps this is the Euro being just like it was for the 12/19 event, only the opposite? It showed nothing for like 6 straight runs, then trended very favorably at 00z, then crushed us at 12z, then went way out to sea again at 00z. Perhaps this time, it'll be a blizzard for 6 straight runs, and unfavorable trend at 00z, nothing at 12z, then back to a blizzard for 00z. Lol at this logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You get a check + young man... Seriously though, I am hoping that the Euro ensembles give us something else to consider after the bitter op run... Thanks! I think the 12Z Euro, above all, was what really convinced me that this storm is a no-show for Pennsylvania, NJ, and Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, we still have some SREF members leaning towards the 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just drowned my sorrow for the storm that won't be in a big McDonald's chocolate shake. I suggest you all do something similar I read the Euro coming out on my phone at red lights. I pulled into Burger King for lunch soon after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe the 18z NAM will push this thing into the Bahamas. Honestly at this point I am rooting for the storm to miss everyone including ENE. NAM comes out @ 3:30. Since it is 18Z, it usually has a bias east, so don't expect anything huge from this model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 snowlover - you are awesome.. keep up the good work, my friend. Thanks! I try to always stay objective, no matter how heart wrenching it is (like today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM comes out @ 3:30. Since it is 18Z, it usually has a bias east, so don't expect anything huge from this model run. mmmmm......ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If we have a few ensemble members still showing a hit late tomorrow this becomes a radar/satellite nowcast party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You know, perhaps this is the Euro being just like it was for the 12/19 event, only the opposite? It showed nothing for like 6 straight runs, then trended very favorably at 00z, then crushed us at 12z, then went way out to sea again at 00z. Perhaps this time, it'll be a blizzard for 6 straight runs, and unfavorable trend at 00z, nothing at 12z, then back to a blizzard for 00z. Lol at this logic. we have until 12z tomorrow for things to correct themselves...after that point whatever is going to happen should be pretty locked in if it isn't already. I feel like I'm playing the bottle carnival game where you have to toss a ring around the neck. You could throw it 500 times and not get a single one....I would say are chances right now are pretty close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Coal in our stockings this year. I'm too lazy to look... anything non-boring on the 384-hr GFS or should we all take a 2-week break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You can get an inexpensive antenna and pick them up in HD... though I hear 6abc is very difficult to pick up on antenna since the DTV transition. When I lived in the Trenton area I found the NYC station forecasts to be very unhelpful for anything outside of NYC. We always watched the Philly stations for forecast info. They are A LOT better these days than when I was growing up. Yes Glenn is very good and also Kathy Orr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensembles are directly over the benchmark at 84 hrs...definitely north and west of the OP. But I don't think it matters all that much given the hook type track the system takes..unless you are on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Coal in our stockings this year.I'm too lazy to look... anything non-boring on the 384-hr GFS or should we all take a 2-week break? Nice quote under the avatar! In any case, given the way things are going this year, any threats should hide themselves until we're within 72 hours before showing up. Otherwise they'll never make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 and the Euro folds to the GFS Just goes to show....whichever model shows no snow is the one that will eventually verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensembles are directly over the benchmark at 84 hrs...definitely north and west of the OP. But I don't think it matters all that much given the hook type track the system takes..unless you are on Long Island. Sounds like the Euro ensembles basically haven't budged in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sounds like the Euro ensembles basically haven't budged in days. But the problem is what Earthlight alluded to. Yes the ensemble mean has the low over the BM but the key is how does it get there. In this case it gets there by swinging way OTS and then turning due north so basically everything misses everybody except those out towards Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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