February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[BullCityWx]

Euro has temps in the mid/upper 20s across almost all of the CLT metro up into the catawba valley into the foothills at 132. With 850s still relatively cool at 126, I am assuming we're having sleet from 126-132.

[Cheeznado]

I think the Euro para has been better, though. And it has a completely different solution. Unless the other three start showing a cutter like the Euro and UK, then we still have two different solutions on the table and not any kind of trend towards one solution or the other. Just have to wait to see what the other models do.

The EPS is best of all with the verification scores, and is was meh for snow. The UKIE has been very consistent with the cutter solution, other models have trended slightly warmer. This is not going to be much of a snow event. Ice is still very much on the table however.

[fountainguy97]

Yes it has.

This low track is in no way favorable for central NC. Sure squeeze some ice out maybe.  Even western areas this isn't the storm for us.  Its a TN and VA north storm.

[BullCityWx]

Huge QPF this run with storm totals in Charlotte around 2.9" with 2" totals rampant west of 77 into WNC and the Upstate. 

[JoshM]

Huge QPF this run with storm totals in Charlotte around 2.5" with 2" totals rampant west of 77 into WNC and the Upstate. 

 

Is that mostly sleet? or a bag of everything?

[burrel2]

Euro and Ukmet arent exactly in the same camp. The ukmet goes negative tilt with a long wave trough over the mississippi river. The euro isn't nearly that aggressive, and would still imply a front end snow/ice threat for some area's. 

 

Also, the euro is sending the surface low right into where the heart of an insitu wedge would be. I'm not buying that at this point. It should either cut west of the apps, or jump more towards the coast. IMO

 

 

Also, The euro has my temp at 29/11 Monday morning when precip starts, at 1pm i'm at 30/25, at 7pm: 31/30 and at 1am 35/34.

 

So it essentially shows zero cooling from wetbulbing... I'm definitely not buying that.

[BullCityWx]

Is that mostly sleet? or a bag of everything?

 

if I had to guess, 2" of snow followed by sleet followed by freezing rain followed by rain. I'd say about an inch or so of the total QPF could possibly be frozen/freezing. 

[BullCityWx]

Euro and Ukmet arent' exactly in the same camp. The ukmet goes negative tilt with a long wave trough over the mississippi river. The euro isn't nearly that aggressive, and would still imply a front end snow/ice threat for some area's. 

 

Also, the euro is sending the surface low right into where the heart of an insitu wedge would be. I'm not buying that at this point. It should either cut west of the apps, or jump more towards the coast. IMO

 

Honestly, I was expecting a transfer and never happened. 

[griteater]

So much for the meh fropa GFS idea...total QPF on Euro is over 1.75 for all of central NC...a little less to the E/W/S

[UpStateCAD]

Huge QPF this run with storm totals in Charlotte around 2.9" with 2" totals rampant west of 77 into WNC and the Upstate. 

QCWx.....through what timeframe?

[BullCityWx]

So much for the meh fropa GFS idea...total QPF on Euro is over 1.75 for all of central NC...a little less to the E/W/S

 

Someone is gonna get crushed with ice. I picked a wrong time to move to the foothills. 

[SnowNiner]

The EURO 0Z op didn't even agree with its own ensembles.  I don't think this one will either, heading up the apps.  The EPS is south. With that said, the EPS still wants to run the low inland along the gulf, and up 95, which still is not what I'd like to see.

 

I agree too that I would pay more attention to the para EURO which has been doing very well and also shows a southern solution.  If that falls to cutter/runner solution this afternoon....

[chapelhillwx]

Can't remember the specifics but for the storm a couple weeks ago, a lot of areas were modeled to either change to rain or not have frozen precip at all that saw colder temps or more frozen. 48-72 hours out a lot of the global models showed temps bottoming out around 32 here and it ended up being more like 27 all day Friday.

Maybe this will be one of those deals where it ends up being more amped but the models pick up on it being a little colder at the sfc.

[BullCityWx]

QCWx.....through what timeframe?

 

I'd say for the upstate, flurries flying by 12z Monday, sticking snow by 18z then the sleet/freezing rain hits overnight. It almost reminds me of 12/2002. 

[Lookout]

Euro actually hangs on with the parent high longer and actually is more impressive with the wedge during the day Monday..as it keeps temps sub freezing even without precip into the afternoon. The euro appears to wrongly drive the surface low straight into the wedge which models often do..which ca uses instant doubts in its surface temps.

Once again it really looks like the warming being shown is unrealistic. The Canadian and euro actually aren't that far off pressure wise with the low and parent high. The Canadian though is much colder and much more likely to be right. It shows the wedge extending up to at least 925mb...easily deep enough to resist temps warming....especially against modest 850m temps. The euro is warmer at 850 but even 6 or 7c probably wouldn't be enough to overcome the depth and degree of the boundary layer. However since the euro wants to drive the low straight into the wedge it's probably a bit too warm at that level.

So the way I see it I see nothing on the euro or any of the other guidance that makes me believe temps will warm up in cad regions from north ga into the western carolinas to prevent significant icing. The bigger question to me is just how much total precip there will be.

[griteater]

Someone is gonna get crushed with ice. I picked a wrong time to move to the foothills. 

We need some damn cold air damming analysis from Lookout

 

Funny thing is this is 5 days away, an eternity in wx model world

[packfan98]

So much for the meh fropa GFS idea...total QPF on Euro is over 1.75 for all of central NC...a little less to the E/W/S

 

And the GEFS has been trending drier the last two runs.  It's time for the GFS to lose the storm until 48 hours in anyway.

[StormyClearweather]

if I had to guess, 2" of snow followed by sleet followed by freezing rain followed by rain. I'd say about an inch or so of the total QPF could possibly be frozen/freezing. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but looks like CLT goes above freezing around 135. By then about .5 frozen or freezing has fallen.

 

GSP looks to stay below freezing a little longer, but is at 33 by 138 when about .9 has fallen, FWIW. 

 

It's impossible to deny the warmer trends though.

[BullCityWx]

We need some damn cold air damming analysis from Lookout

 

Funny thing is this is 5 days away, an eternity in wx model world

 

Timeline is eerily similar to 12/02. We'll see how it goes through the weekend. 

[Jet Stream Rider]

As long as we have this acute arctic air mass around we are in the game. We have at least a couple of possibilities to follow.

 

I figure cold rain for the Monday system, so as not to be disappointed. But I suspect it might be more wintery than that. Time will tell.

[PackGrad05]

Allan tweeted a lot...  western NC best chance of anything right now, he isn't excited about central NC with this one.

[StormyClearweather]

Euro actually hangs on with the parent high longer and actually is more impressive with the wedge during the day Monday..as it keeps temps sub freezing even without precip into the afternoon.The euro appears to wrongly drive the surface low straight into the wedge which models often do..which causes instant doubts in its surface temps.

Once again it really looks like the warming being shown is unrealistic. The Canadian and euro actually aren't that far off pressure wise with the low and parent high. The Canadian though is much colder and much more likely to be right. It shows the wedge extending up to at least 925mb...easily deep enough to resist temps warming....especially against modest 850m temps. The euro is warmer at 850 but even 6 or 7c probably wouldn't be enough to overcome the depth and degree of the boundary layer. However since the euro wants to drive the low straight into the wedge it's probably a bit too warm at that level.

So the way I see it I see nothing on the euro or any of the other guidance that makes me believe temps will warm up in cad regions from north ga into the western carolinas to prevent significant icing. The bigger question to me is just how much total precip there will be.

 

Good post. What's the bigger question? Don't leave us hanging Lookout!

[FallsLake]

We're not going to get a good idea until maybe Friday. I don't buy the European. This is some really cold air that is going to be in place and very hard to dislodge. I don't think the models are going to be able to model this correctly.  I expect to see the euro start trending south and east just like the last storm. (but)I also don't buy the GFS. I think we end up with some kind of hybrid A/B system, with mesohighs keeping a hybrid CAD in place. I have no idea how this would effect areas like RDU; which could still turn over to rain. I would (at this point) favor areas in the NW sections of NC being the jackpot for whatever we end up getting.

[griteater]

Euro actually hangs on with the parent high longer and actually is more impressive with the wedge during the day Monday..as it keeps temps sub freezing even without precip into the afternoon. The euro appears to wrongly drive the surface low straight into the wedge which models often do..which ca uses instant doubts in its surface temps.

Once again it really looks like the warming being shown is unrealistic. The Canadian and euro actually aren't that far off pressure wise with the low and parent high. The Canadian though is much colder and much more likely to be right. It shows the wedge extending up to at least 925mb...easily deep enough to resist temps warming....especially against modest 850m temps. The euro is warmer at 850 but even 6 or 7c probably wouldn't be enough to overcome the depth and degree of the boundary layer. However since the euro wants to drive the low straight into the wedge it's probably a bit too warm at that level.

So the way I see it I see nothing on the euro or any of the other guidance that makes me believe temps will warm up in cad regions from north ga into the western carolinas to prevent significant icing. The bigger question to me is just how much total precip there will be.

We need some damn cold air damming analysis from Lookout

 

Thanks.  I'll put Lookout's knowledge for cold air damming up against anyone, anywhere

[packfan98]

I believe we had a similar conversation with our big storm in January.  The Euro shifted south eventually instead of plowing directly into the cold air.  I know every system is different though.  I think I will go back through the archives...

[BullCityWx]

Put me firmly in the camp that I think the OP Euro will correct southward over time. Not sure how much but that airmass is no joke. If QPF numbers hold, that is a horrible ice event waiting to happen. 

[franklin NCwx]

The 12z Euro run was totally different than the 0z. The 12z is less amped and sends the low into sw NC then transfers to the coast. The 0z cut the low up through west central Tennessee, then into Ohio. I wouldn't mind seeing another shift like that at 0z.

Edit. Its also closer to the cmc Gfs camp than ukie with the 12z run.

[BullCityWx]

The 12z Euro run was totally different than the 0z. The 12z is less amped and send the low into sw NC then transfer to the coast. The 0z cut the low up through west central Tennessee, then into Ohio. I would wouldn't mind seeing another shift like that at 0z.

 

this run is definitely a more significant event than 0z. 

[griteater]

The sfc high is working off the coast, so an amped up wave is definitely going to put a lot of pressure on on the damming.  Still could be significant freezing precip in some areas in that scenario.

[SnowNiner]

Put me firmly in the camp that I think the OP Euro will correct southward over time. Not sure how much but that airmass is no joke. If QPF numbers hold, that is a horrible ice event waiting to happen. 

 

Yeah I think so too.  But if the Para falls and the EPS starts to show the northern route this afternoon I will really lose hope.  Can't have confidence in a GFS/Canadian combo versus the Euro/UKMET.