Post-Super Bowl Storm chance discussion

[forkyfork]

Lol at people thinking this was mainly a D.C. and south storm yesterday.

lol at people thinking this can't come further north. there's no blocking so the confluence moves north along with the storm

[jbenedet]

i've never seen a SWFE come back south inside 84 hours after the models started bringing mixing into the area

Wasn't the southeast trend inside 84 hrs., the theme for virtually all of last season?

[danstorm]

i've never seen a SWFE come back south inside 84 hours after the models started bringing mixing into the area

 

Sounds anecdotal. 

 

2/13 last year it happened at the last minute.  The pre blizzard paste storm there was a last minute southerly burp, too.

[Brian5671]

Lol at people thinking this was mainly a D.C. and south storm yesterday.

yeah, what a difference 24 hrs makes, NYC looked to be on the northern frindge, now there's taint issues and DC is a rainstorm

[Heisy]

lol at people thinking this can't come further north. there's no blocking so the confluence moves north along with the storm

 

Exactly, look at 72 hours 500mb vort map. The confluence is quickly retreating, there is NOTHING stopping 

[danstorm]

Wasn't the southeast trend inside 84 hrs., the theme for virtually all of last season?

 

typical forkychopstick rhetoric... "never seen", etc...

[bluewave]

yeah, what a difference 24 hrs makes, NYC looked to be on the northern frindge, now there's taint issues and DC is a rainstorm

 

Any more north and we would have to worry about ice mixing in since the surface won't get above freezing in NYC

with such strong CAD.

 

[SnoSki14]

Several days ago the gfs thought this was mostly a big rainstorm perhaps it's going back to that original idea then. If it keeps trending north by tonight's runs then we'll know where we stand. 

[forkyfork]

Wasn't the southeast trend inside 84 hrs., the theme for virtually all of last season?

"after the models started bringing mixing into the area" 

[Ericjcrash]

Several days ago the gfs thought this was mostly a big rainstorm perhaps it's going back to that original idea then. If it keeps trending north by tonight's runs then we'll know where we stand.

GGEM was warm and amped as well.

[stlirish]

The CAD is real. This is not rain. It might ice some in the city but briefly before going back to all SNOW. I hope everyone in this sub forum gets thumped! We all look good on the front end. Let's hope for a tick south or the very least hope that 12z Euro and GFS hold course. The NAM and 18z GFS need to be considered but when blended across the guidance NYC is almost an all Snow event and a big hit

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[SnoSki14]

lol at people thinking this can't come further north. there's no blocking so the confluence moves north along with the storm

I disagree though that it'll be all rain unless the low moves north another 100 miles. I don't see that happening unless we see a big phase. 

 

I would normally agree with you but you took a hit with the Tuesday bust.

[SnowGoose69]

I disagree though that it'll be all rain unless the low moves north another 100 miles. I don't see that happening unless we see a big phase. 

 

I would normally agree with you but you took a hit with the Tuesday bust.

 

It would need the PV to phase in from Canada and that's not happening, it may come 50 miles further north and I'm not even sure its going to do that.

[PB GFI]

You have confluence through the lakes and you have a block.

Look at what this looks like S of Greenland at hour 48 at 500

The confluence will keep this west to east and that's the best CAD we have had this year.

In early Feb with a cold air mass the cold wins

That's how you snow in NYC.

[bluewave]

It would need the PV to phase in from Canada and that's not happening, it may come 50 miles further north and I'm not even sure its going to do that.

 

Yeah, there is no PV to drop in like 1-17-94 and 2-14-07.

[danstorm]

You have confluence through the lakes and you have a block.

Look at what this looks like S of Greenland at hour 48 at 500

The confluence will keep this west to east and that's the best CAD we have had this year.

In early Feb with a cold air mass the cold wins

That's how you snow in NYC.

 

I agree.  The AO is dropping like a rock next few days.  NAO too. 

 

Not sure on all snow for NYC, but odds of mostly snow are high, IMO. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Any more north and we would have to worry about ice mixing in since the surface won't get above freezing in NYC

with such strong CAD.

 

gfsNE_sfc_temp_066.gif

 

 

Wow is that a tight gradient.  You can generalize this for the entire region, but as an example, 25 on the north shore to 35 on the south shore is pretty extreme.

[stlirish]

You have confluence through the lakes and you have a block.

Look at what this looks like S of Greenland at hour 48 at 500

The confluence will keep this west to east and that's the best CAD we have had this year.

In early Feb with a cold air mass the cold wins

That's how you snow in NYC.

Spot on. I don't think anyone is denying we might mix for a few hours and lose an inch or two of snow but this grab bag posting of "it's going to be all rain in a few more runs" is complete rubbish. That's the crap that ruins an otherwise nice forum.

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[NYCGreg]

To me, I just want to see the models showing as strong a storm as possible.  Iron out the details later.  These posts about trends and this and that mean virtually nothing to me with a storm more than two days away.  The models - all of them, whether they show all snow or all rain - are complete trash.  They flip flop so much from run to run that if the name of the model was removed from the printout it'd be an entire guessing game.

 

Within 36 hours of the epic blizzard bust, the NAM caved to the rest of the guidance and showed a massive storm.  Of course, right after that, the rest of the guidance trended east.  No model - not one - came close to depicting that storm correctly.  So I really don't care what any of the models say at any time until there is any consistency.  And before you tell me there is already consistency, let me point out that 18 hours ago so many were concerned about this storm being pushed south.  All of a sudden, those fears come to the storm being pushed north.  Just sit back and let this thing play out, and hopefully it works out.  I want snow as much as anyone here, but I refuse to be emotionally invested after the blizzard bust.

[bluewave]

You have confluence through the lakes and you have a block.

Look at what this looks like S of Greenland at hour 48 at 500

The confluence will keep this west to east and that's the best CAD we have had this year.

In early Feb with a cold air mass the cold wins

That's how you snow in NYC.

 

The 12z Euro looks like it has the best handle on things given the block and 50/50 in place.

[Ericjcrash]

To me, I just want to see the models showing as strong a storm as possible.  Iron out the details later.  These posts about trends and this and that mean virtually nothing to me with a storm more than two days away.  The models - all of them, whether they show all snow or all rain - are complete trash.  They flip flop so much from run to run that if the name of the model was removed from the printout it'd be an entire guessing game.

 

Within 36 hours of the epic blizzard bust, the NAM caved to the rest of the guidance and showed a massive storm.  Of course, right after that, the rest of the guidance trended east.  No model - not one - came close to depicting that storm correctly.  So I really don't care what any of the models say at any time until there is any consistency.  And before you tell me there is already consistency, let me point out that 18 hours ago so many were concerned about this storm being pushed south.  All of a sudden, those fears come to the storm being pushed north.  Just sit back and let this thing play out, and hopefully it works out.  I want snow as much as anyone here, but I refuse to be emotionally invested after the blizzard bust.

Any stronger and you get rain. Nothing to iron out.

[bluewave]

Wow is that a tight gradient.  You can generalize this for the entire region, but as an example, 25 on the north shore to 35 on the south shore is pretty extreme.

 

It will be interesting to see how low the temps go Tuesday morning as the cold air gets drawn down over the fresh snowpack.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

So PB you are sticking with all snow and no chance of change for monmouth?

[SnowGoose69]

The 12z Euro looks like it has the best handle on things given the block and 50/50 in place.

 

It'll be funny if the Euro is discounted in this event if it continues to generally remain on the more south side and ends up right, given how basic this setup is, its hard to believe the Euro will have another fail.

[USCG RS]

I agree. The AO is dropping like a rock next few days. NAO too.

Not sure on all snow for NYC, but odds of mostly snow are high, IMO.

Even if we taint, I don't see plain rain, at least not for long. The ground is frozen, and while winds aloft may be warm enough, it's going to be very hard pressed to scour out that very dense cold air.

[jm1220]

I'd much rather be near I-90 with trending north SWFEs than near NYC. 9 out of 10 of these center the heavy snow there, while I-80 and south has rain or sleet for much of it. This could be a better case since there's a lot of preceding cold, but if the 850mb low goes over or north of you, inevitably it goes to a mix. And right now I'm not liking the trends there for NYC, much less anywhere south. I'd say 50 or 60 percent chance that accums get cut a good amount around NYC from mixing at this point. Tonight and tomorrow will be crucial for finishing up these trends. Gun to my head, I'd go no higher than 3-6 for NYC for now. If it turns out like the NAM, it might be more like 2-4".

[NYCGreg]

Any stronger and you get rain. Nothing to iron out.

Possibly, but not necessarily.  If the low bombs out after reaching the coast - which is still a possibility - you get snow.  Not sure any of the models are depicting that scenario, but I'm not really paying too much attention to the models at this point.  Though from what I am reading there are a few that are now suggesting a Miller B, which can get you all snow depending on the location of the transfer.

[bluewave]

It'll be funny if the Euro is discounted in this event if it continues to generally remain on the more south side and ends up right, given how basic this setup is, its hard to believe the Euro will have another fail.

 

I generally like the Euro for getting these storms with such strong CAD correct since it seems to see the HP better.

Several times the GFS has incorrectly ran lows into HP only to correct south under 48 hrs.

[PB GFI]

The 12z Euro looks like it has the best handle on things given the block and 50/50 in place.

All the guidance did today is place the 0 line somewhere between Tom's River and just south of the Driscoll . That's not a trend N.

On a NE wind the battleground is usually Tom's River .

You are not seeing a set up where the 0 line is on the CT coast.

All the models are west to east because all the models see the confluence.

So the Last piece ( in this case hour 66 is the 0 line in Asbury or wildwood . ) The 500 mb map S of Greenland looks great and by 72 it doesn't escape into the Atlantic.

You are Getting NE winds with a really cold air mass. I don't need the models to tell me that's snow in NYC

I think being in KNYC is the safer bet , I have been arguing KNYC all day and don't like to argue my backyard. But there is a chance its all snow from Trenton on N although arguing KNYC has been my battleground.

[Ericjcrash]

Possibly, but not necessarily.  If the low bombs out after reaching the coast - which is still a possibility - you get snow.  Not sure any of the models are depicting that scenario, but I'm not really paying too much attention to the models at this point.  Though from what I am reading there are a few that are now suggesting a Miller B, which can get you all snow depending on the location of the transfer.

Let me rephrase, a primary any stronger and you go to rain, how long who knows. 12z GGEM is as good as it gets. Sign me up right now. My mIn concern is a sneak period of ZR given the CAD.