rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 About 20 January to 20 February... I would narrow it just a tad but yes. I can tell you from my history . I go back to the early sixties. Just my experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think WSO Upton has an average February snowfall (for the month) of just over a foot the last 14 years..previously, it was closer to 9 or 10 inches. February is the snowiest month of the year nationwide...despite it being the shortest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would narrow it just a tad but yes. I can tell you from my history . I go back to the early sixties. Just my experience Narrowed it would be Feb 3 - Feb 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would narrow it just a tad but yes. I can tell you from my history . I go back to the early sixties. Just my experience I am an EE by trade so I have always been interested in numbers and data and weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Narrowed it would be Feb 3 - Feb 13. Exactly what I would say from my and other guys I know from experience. Perfect. You must have similar history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 February is the snowiest month of the year nationwide...despite it being the shortest month. What defines the term "snowiest"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What defines the term "snowiest"? most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lots of people could get burned thinking the thermal boundary with this couldn't set up further north. Of course it could. A stronger mid-level shortwave over the central US would do the trick. Confluence is a correlated not causal factor. It cannot "force" a southerly storm track. And a forecasted future "pattern" cannot prevent changes in future model progs. The "pattern doesn't support it" theory is illogical. The future "pattern" and the modeled outcome are interrelated - they are essentially the same thing. Modeled highs and lows will form below upper level convergence and divergence respectively. Where those features set up is as yet unresolved, and we therefore cannot say, for example, how much confluence there will be on Sun/Mon. The recent trends have clearly been to inch this thing north. But the good news is that there is an arctic airmass in place over the entire northeast and the baroclinicity will be very strong. That likely means places just north of the 850mb low will get a period of impressively heavy snow... even places that eventually mix or change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lots of people could get burned thinking the thermal boundary with this couldn't set up further north. Of course it could. A stronger mid-level shortwave over the central US would do the trick. Confluence is a correlated not causal factor. It cannot "force" a southerly storm track. And a forecasted future "pattern" cannot prevent changes in future model progs. The "pattern doesn't support it" theory is illogical. The future "pattern" and the modeled outcome are interrelated - they are essentially the same thing. Modeled highs and lows will form below upper level convergence and divergence respectively. Where those features set up is as yet unresolved, and we therefore cannot say, for example, how much confluence there will be on Sun/Mon. The recent trends have clearly been to inch this thing north. But the good news is that there is an arctic airmass in place over the entire northeast and the baroclinicity will be very strong. That likely means places just north of the 850mb low will get a period of impressively heavy snow... even places that eventually mix or change over. Could you please explain baroclinicity in detail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Narrowed it would be Feb 3 - Feb 13. Are you speaking of general snowstorms? Or KU events? The PD I & II storms occurred in the 15-20 range, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lots of people could get burned thinking the thermal boundary with this couldn't set up further north. Of course it could. A stronger mid-level shortwave over the central US would do the trick. Confluence is a correlated not causal factor. It cannot "force" a southerly storm track. And a forecasted future "pattern" cannot prevent changes in future model progs. The "pattern doesn't support it" theory is illogical. The future "pattern" and the modeled outcome are interrelated - they are essentially the same thing. Modeled highs and lows will form below upper level convergence and divergence respectively. Where those features set up is as yet unresolved, and we therefore cannot say, for example, how much confluence there will be on Sun/Mon. The recent trends have clearly been to inch this thing north. But the good news is that there is an arctic airmass in place over the entire northeast and the baroclinicity will be very strong. That likely means places just north of the 850mb low will get a period of impressively heavy snow... even places that eventually mix or change over. I agree there will be a very nice front end before a changeover, and I don't see it being as extremely north/warm as the NAM, but I can't think of many of these SWFE type storms that end well around NYC. The last I can think of may be the 12/19/95 storm. NYC cashes in when it can on the front end, like in Feb 2008, and hoping the dry slot can end precip after it warms up. The vast majority of the time these inch north at the end before settling on heavy snow for I-90 in NYS and SNE/NNE and mixing/rain from NYC and south. Another problem with SWFE's is that warm mid-level air is often under-modeled. If you're on or south of the 850 low's track and the mid level temps look to cooperate, don't believe it. Only places north of the 850 low will stay all snow. It's an issue that central PA will likely face, as the 850 low looks to head down I-80 roughly. That also suggests that the I-90 corridor from Buffalo to Boston may have the highest snow totals. Strong enough confluence can keep the flow zonal enough to force the low east at some point, but to me it doesn't look overwhelmingly strong enough and stout enough to keep it all/mostly snow for the I-80 corridor and south. This type of storm and the bomb-out clipper from Monday are often Boston's best snow producers and ones that leave NYC on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are you speaking of general snowstorms? Or KU events? The PD I & II storms occurred in the 15-20 range, no? Probably both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I agree there will be a very nice front end before a changeover, and I don't see it being as extremely north/warm as the NAM, but I can't think of many of these SWFE type storms that end well around NYC. The last I can think of may be the 12/19/95 storm. NYC cashes in when it can on the front end, like in Feb 2008, and hoping the dry slot can end precip after it warms up. The vast majority of the time these inch north at the end before settling on heavy snow for I-90 in NYS and SNE/NNE and mixing/rain from NYC and south. Another problem with SWFE's is that warm mid-level air is often under-modeled. If you're on or south of the 850 low's track and the mid level temps look to cooperate, don't believe it. Only places north of the 850 low will stay all snow. It's an issue that central PA will likely face, as the 850 low looks to head down I-80 roughly. That also suggests that the I-90 corridor from Buffalo to Boston may have the highest snow totals. Strong enough confluence can keep the flow zonal enough to force the low east at some point, but to me it doesn't look overwhelmingly strong enough and stout enough to keep it all/mostly snow for the I-80 corridor and south. This type of storm and the bomb-out clipper from Monday are often Boston's best snow producers and ones that leave NYC on the edge. This kind of pattern is not going to yield some type of warm surge north of 41 N or even 40.5 N...I mean anything is possible...but this is not the event to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can you take this to banter Pam and others, this is a weatherboard, please, enough already. Thank you.. You beat me too it. Any word on Srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Srefs north, warmer, 850 lines gets into SNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Surface temps are cold on the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Surface temps are cold on the sref at this point, id be a lot more concerned about the 850's than the surface, but you know this after 50 gazillion posts, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Srefs north, warmer, 850 lines gets into SNY. Looks like only for 4 or 5 hours before crashing south again, and while the surface stays close to freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like only for 4 or 5 hours before crashing south again, and while the surface stays close to freezing... And 2 more days to keep trending north. Maybe even SNE will have to worry about mixing. Forky might be right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes it is about a 30 shift north. I had a feeling the northward trend was too much too fast. There is a good chance that the track of the low will even go north of the city. Of course things can change, but the odds are for a shift further north. I even put it in my official forceast for DSNY yesterday and keep a possible change over in today's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 at this point, id be a lot more concerned about the 850's than the surface, but you know this after 50 gazillion posts, no? Thus might turn into an icestorm for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And 2 more days to keep trending north. Maybe even SNE will have to worry about mixing. Forky might be right this time. Snowgoose a met in this thread mentioned that this is more of a hybrid coastal/swfe event, which makes me wonder if we could cool down again before the end of the storm as the coastal gets cranking especially the farther north you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And 2 more days to keep trending north. Maybe even SNE will have to worry about mixing. Forky might be right this time. Maybe we should wsit till the major 0z globals come out before making such statements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Upton has a pretty good discussion tn about why they are waiting on Watches. They note the north trend and higher confidence in snow amounts inland rather than coast. Also want to wait until tn for the energy to come on land to be sampled. ..would have posted it but its a pain from the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes it is about a 30 shift north. I had a feeling the northward trend was too much too fast. There is a good chance that the track of the low will even go north of the city. Of course things can change, but the odds are for a shift further north. I even put it in my official forceast for DSNY yesterday and keep a possible change over in today's forecast. the one thing i do disagree with though is this becoming primarily a rain event, i think no matter what there is a nice period of snow for pretty much the entire area to start, at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe we should wsit till the major 0z globals come out before making such statements? Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe we should wsit till the major 0z globals come out before making such statements? he's just speculating and discussing, hence the use of the word maybe, etc....that is sort of what these threads are here for no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREF's are the most useless models out there...they are not called "experimental" for nothing. If they were any good they would no longer be deemed as such... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe we should wsit till the major 0z globals come out before making such statements? I agree - this north shift stuff that even southern new england has mixing and change over issues is ridiculous and premature IMO there will be no rain in southern new england thats for sure with such a cold environment and very deep snowcover on Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I look at practically every model *except* them...I also don't give any weight to the JMA or KMA or other obscure foreign model. fair enough, and very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.