PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still all snow north of Toms river PB? My argument has been KNYC all day. I think the NAM is wrong at 48 its a pos tilted trough and shouldn't cut into the confluence. I have said all day I think NYC is snow. I stand by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rain? No way. Frozen maybe Sent from my iPhone Winds switch around to E and ESE for much of Long Island and at least for a time it would be rain on the NAM. The South Shore gets close to 40 at the peak of the warming. Then winds flip around to NW and there's a flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 PB no it hasnt. You've been saying Tom's river come on pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My argument has been KNYC all day. I think the NAM is wrong at 48 its a pos tilted trough and shouldn't cut into the confluence. Ive said all day I think NYC is snow. It would difficult for the low to go any further north without a phase and either models hold or tick further south especially if the confluence grows stronger. There's still nearly 2 days left to track this and you still wouldn't want to be in the bullseye this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If the nam verifies than this is nothing but a nuisance for TTN south. Big if though. The NAM has maybe up to 3 or 4" of snow in NYC before sleet and rain take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 PB no it hasnt. You've been saying Tom's river come on pal10 rebuttals today on how KNYC was a snowstorm. I said I think the battleground is Toms River. U should go back and re read the comments all day about KNYC Move out of RedBank. It's a dump and char is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My argument has been KNYC all day. I think the NAM is wrong at 48 its a pos tilted trough and shouldn't cut into the confluence. I have said all day I think NYC is snow. I stand by it. Amazing that people take the NAM as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My argument has been KNYC all day. I think the NAM is wrong at 48 its a pos tilted trough and shouldn't cut into the confluence. I have said all day I think NYC is snow. I stand by it. I agree. I think NYC stays all or mostly snow. Even with mixing, I do think this will be a 5-10" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The surface will be very tricky because there's a lot of CAD in place due to very cold air in the low levels just north of the low. The low itself it having a very hard time climbing any further north because of the setup in place so there is a limit to how far north it gets. I'd rather see what the other models show as both the SREF and Nam are out of their range.I would honestly be very surprised if we do not see at least a slight correction South with the system on subsequent runs. This high pressure is not only rather strong, the models are also beginning so realize just how cold this artic air is. Furthermore, with the snow pack for easter areas, even if the 850 low touches our latitude (which I doubt happens) , that's going to be freezing rain and sleet. This could be a significant icing event for parts of the area if we the 850 were to touch our latitude. That being said, I highly doubt that happens, and furthermore, the band of precipitation that sets up just north of the 850 is going to be very intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The surface will be very tricky because there's a lot of CAD in place due to very cold air in the low levels just north of the low. The low itself it having a very hard time climbing any further north because of the setup in place so there is a limit to how far north it gets. I'd rather see what the other models show as both the SREF and Nam are out of their range. hey snoski you won the January snowfall contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Amazing that people take the NAM as gospel.We use the RGEM here inside 36 hours all of sudden we are humping this thing at 60. Whatever makes people happy. It's a pos tilted trough it should continue east and not cut. There HP sitting right in front of it and blocking to NE of that HP . Why would it cut ? Maybe its right. I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well wether the nam is right or not it's going to get very cold so everything is going to freeze were it does rain or mic so either way it's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Models always underestimate low level cold let's not forget that Sunday morning icing debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well wether the nam is right or not it's going to get very cold so everything is going to freeze were it does rain or mic so either way it's not good Yes indeed. If it does rain, it'll really lead to some very dangerous driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We use the RGEM here inside 36 hours all of sudden we are humping this thing at 60. Whatever makes people happy. It's a pos tilted trough it should continue east and not cut. There HP sitting right in front of it and blocking to NE of that HP . Why would it cut ? Maybe its right. I don't see it. Most SWFEs are positively tilted and they cut all the time. SWFEs almost always trend north at the end and warmer at mid levels from the 850mb low track and south. The storm is becoming more amplified because the S/W is strengthening on models and the confluence is too transient and weak to stop it. Let's see what other models have to say, but this isn't a storm I'm comfortable with for all or mostly snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Models always underestimate low level cold let's not forget that Sunday morning icing debacle. For anyone away from the immediate coast, I wouldn't worry about plain rain at all. More likely tons of sleet and maybe a zone of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 hey snoski you won the January snowfall contest Oh I did. Oh good now I only need another 50 or so inches to get my seasonal snowfall prediction right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would honestly be very surprised if we do not see at least a slight correction South with the system on subsequent runs. This high pressure is not only rather strong, the models are also beginning so realize just how cold this artic air is. Furthermore, with the snow pack for easter areas, even if the 850 low touches our latitude (which I doubt happens) , that's going to be freezing rain and sleet. This could be a significant icing event for parts of the area if we the 850 were to touch our latitude. That being said, I highly doubt that happens, and furthermore, the band of precipitation that sets up just north of the 850 is going to be very intense. I did see a met over in the accu forums saying he still expected a southerly correction because in his opinion, the models aren't pciking up on the arctic cold enough, and this air would be too strong to dislodge. After this week's debacle, I am waiting to see what happens after the storm is on our doorstep. In other words, he was expecting some of what you folks here would call suppression. Forget the dude's name, something like easten PA weather. maybe someone here know who it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Most SWFEs are positively tilted and they cut all the time. SWFEs almost always trend north at the end and warmer at mid levels from the 850mb low track and south. The storm is becoming more amplified because the S/W is strengthening on models and the confluence is too transient and weak to stop it. Let's see what other models have to say, but this isn't a storm I'm comfortable with for all or mostly snow for NYC. Not when there in confluence and blocking. They don't. They get shunted east. They will cut in the face of a SE ridge and when HP backed by blocking is not present. You can see it still exits SE of the area. So it sees the confluence just a little to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM has maybe up to 3 or 4" of snow in NYC before sleet and rain take over. This is unlikely to change over to rain at NYC unless the surface low continues to trend further north. Even the 00z NAM is a pretty substantial freezing rain event for NYC. The low level cold air is quite formidable with this event and will start to nose down as the surface low transfers offshore. It would difficult for the low to go any further north without a phase and either models hold or tick further south especially if the confluence grows stronger. There's still nearly 2 days left to track this and you still wouldn't want to be in the bullseye this far out. While I agree that there is likely a northern extent to the track of the surface low (due to aforementioned confluence and relatively flat shortwave), what will have to be watched the next 24 hours is how much tropical moisture from the upper-level low over the southwestern US is able to get advected into the south and central plains. If a decent amount of tropical moisture makes it into this system, that could boost the chances of moist convection in the warm sector of this cyclone. More convection out ahead of the main system would favor a more amplified, stronger, and poleward system. Something to watch carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is unlikely to change over to rain at NYC unless the surface low continues to trend further north. Even the 00z NAM is a pretty substantial freezing rain event for NYC. The low level cold air is quite formidable with this event! While I agree that there is likely a northern extent to the track of the surface low, what will have to be watched the next 24 hours is how much tropical moisture from the upper-level low over the southwestern US is able to get advected into the south and central plains. If a decent amount of tropical moisture makes it into this system, that could boost the chances of moist convection in the warm sector of this cyclone. More convection out ahead of the main system would favor a more amplified, stronger, and poleward system. Something to watch carefully. This is unlikely to change over to rain at NYC unless the surface low continues to trend further north. Even the 00z NAM is a pretty substantial freezing rain event for NYC. The low level cold air is quite formidable with this event! While I agree that there is likely a northern extent to the track of the surface low, what will have to be watched the next 24 hours is how much tropical moisture from the upper-level low over the southwestern US is able to get advected into the south and central plains. If a decent amount of tropical moisture makes it into this system, that could boost the chances of moist convection in the warm sector of this cyclone. More convection out ahead of the main system would favor a more amplified, stronger, and poleward system. Something to watch carefully. Could you explain the implications of that for those of us who didn't major in the hard sciences? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Could you explain the implications of that for those of us who didn't major in the hard sciences? Thanks. I would think that more tropical moisture being advected in would help pump the ridge east of the storm, and force it further north, as well as helping strengthen the system which would also favor it trying to cut as far as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So I guess for you guys' sake, hopefully tomorrow isn't too rainy down here in Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Larry Cosgrove just said he believes NYC will stay mostly snow. He did say that maybe sleet makes into Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So I guess for you guys' sake, hopefully tomorrow isn't too rainy down here in Austin. You moved there for the U T girls and 6 th street. Now I know why you moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Larry Cosgrove just said he believes NYC will stay mostly snow. He did say that maybe sleet makes into Staten Island. Great, I live right across the river from it, and I hate sleet. My experience over 52 years is that if it can find a way to rain or sleet, it will.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM at hour 48 is over Kentucky the NAM at 48 is in Indiana. Looks about 75 miles south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would think that more tropical moisture being advected in would help pump the ridge east of the storm, and force it further north, as well as helping strengthen the system which would also favor it trying to cut as far as possible. I would think that more tropical moisture being advected in would help pump the ridge east of the storm, and force it further north, as well as helping strengthen the system which would also favor it trying to cut as far as possible. Which would mean more rain I assume.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You moved there for the U T girls and 6 th street. Now I know why you moved. I've yet to venture to Sleazy 6th-maybe tomorrow I'll check it out. I'll have to cop to checking out some of the UT females though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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