PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So PB you are sticking with all snow and no chance of change for monmouth?The UKMET says you get a foot of snow then snizzle The EURO is all snow The 12z GEFS Says all snow Those are my 3 models . There is so much forcing on its front side by the time you mix If at all the damage will b done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 i've never seen a SWFE come back south inside 84 hours after the models started bringing mixing into the area i agree with this, but I will say these SWFE often end up with a big thump to a lighter mix, so it ends up being a pretty good event. especially since we are dealing with such a good antecedent cold mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 i agree with this, but I will say these SWFE often end up with a big thump to a lighter mix, so it ends up being a pretty good event. especially since we are dealing with such a good antecedent cold mass. This is not a true SWFE, its like a bastardized coastal/SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All the guidance did today is place the 0 line somewhere between Tom's River and just south of the Driscoll . That's not a trend N. On a NE wind the battleground is usually Tom's River . You are not seeing a set up where the 0 line is on the CT coast. All the models are west to east because all the models see the confluence. So the Last piece ( in this case hour 66 is the 0 line in Asbury or wildwood . ) The 500 mb map S of Greenland looks great and by 72 it doesn't escape into the Atlantic. You are Getting NE winds with a really cold air mass. I don't need the models to tell me that's snow in NYC The S/W is trending stronger, so the low is trending north. The confluence will stop it at some point, the question is where. That's why tonight and tomorrow will be crucial. I certainly don't see any rain though besides the immediate coast and then only briefly. The main thing to watch is the 850mb low track and mid level warmth. I've been burned many times at PSU ignoring the 850mb low track. Anywhere south of it is guaranteed to mix at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is not a true SWFE, its like a bastardized coastal/SWFE that's true, and I can see how that might lead to a little more actual rain/mix on the back end, but I do think the idea of a good front end thump stands, especially if you get under some good banding. and that the cold air will be relatively tough to scour out. also that could increase the chance of a snow to rain to snow scenario, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All the guidance did today is place the 0 line somewhere between Tom's River and just south of the Driscoll . That's not a trend N. On a NE wind the battleground is usually Tom's River . You are not seeing a set up where the 0 line is on the CT coast. All the models are west to east because all the models see the confluence. So the Last piece ( in this case hour 66 is the 0 line in Asbury or wildwood . ) The 500 mb map S of Greenland looks great and by 72 it doesn't escape into the Atlantic. You are Getting NE winds with a really cold air mass. I don't need the models to tell me that's snow in NYC I agree.This is the best looking block near Greenland and 50/50 pattern all season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 FWIW Upton has 5-9 in my point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Let me rephrase, a primary any stronger and you go to rain, how long who knows. 12z GGEM is as good as it gets. Sign me up right now. My mIn concern is a sneak period of ZR given the CAD. Ice...this looks a bit like 2/2/11 to me, where we had 3" of snow and then prolonged icing with 1/2" of accretion. I think the antecedent cold, the snowpack, and strong banana high pressure will prevent a changeover to rain anywhere in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If any of you want some comic relief about possible mixing issues, go to the link below (it's a remix of Ollie the Weatherman from Family Guy saying "It Gon Rain"): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dseYaVG6x34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ice...this looks a bit like 2/2/11 to me, where we had 3" of snow and then prolonged icing with 1/2" of accretion. I think the antecedent cold, the snowpack, and strong banana high pressure will prevent a changeover to rain anywhere in the NYC area. I agree BL temps will remain below freezing and probably below 30, but really thats low impact after it snows. Freezing rain or plain rain any further NW and there would be liquid falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro has a nice ratio booster later Monday morning into the afternoon as temps in NYC drop into the teens and 850's collapse south into the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow is that a tight gradient. You can generalize this for the entire region, but as an example, 25 on the north shore to 35 on the south shore is pretty extreme. 25 on the north shore and 35 on the south shore. Is that true . What model? Seems extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is not a true SWFE, its like a bastardized coastal/SWFE A Miller X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 25 on the north shore and 35 on the south shore. Is that true . What model? Seems extremeThat can easily verify and happens more ofen than you would think. Ask the other south shore guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That can easily verify and happens more ofen than you would think. Ask the other south shore guys. I have seen it lots of times , but not 10 degrees, unless he is talking about Montauk on the high end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 25 on the north shore and 35 on the south shore. Is that true . What model? Seems extreme Not that extreme. It happens more than one thinks. 20 degree day North? Probably 27 degree day South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not that extreme. It happens more than one thinks. 20 degree day North? Probably 27 degree day South. I live in Northport and work in Bohemia. I can tell you many times with marginal events, I would drive home and see the roads go from wet to white as I cross 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z gefs?north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here is the closest analog on CIPS...notice how it tracked maybe 50-70 miles north of where the NAM/GFS want this and the pattern in SE Canada and the WRN US sucked vs what it is here, so this one should go south of that. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0306.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The S/W is trending stronger, so the low is trending north. The confluence will stop it at some point, the question is where. That's why tonight and tomorrow will be crucial. I certainly don't see any rain though besides the immediate coast and then only briefly. The main thing to watch is the 850mb low track and mid level warmth. I've been burned many times at PSU ignoring the 850mb low track. Anywhere south of it is guaranteed to mix at some point.The 12 z Euro BL gradient is insane. Before temps crash at hour 72 its 19 on the N shore of Nassau county to 27 at KJFK. The high temp at KNYC is 19 so if there is any push , you could sleet w the surface at 15 before it goes back over. Most of the models want to push a lot of moisture ahead of the push and then collapses the entire column and snow behind it That's why the talk of rain is just dumb. People look at one level and never bothered to peak at the BL . The surface is COLD . The push people see are in the mid levels and not the surface. And they are quick to reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18zGEFS is a snowstorm at KNYC the 0 line is at the Driscoll bridge and the 32 degree line at the surface is in Monmouth County at hour 66. Colder before and After. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 12 z Euro BL gradient is insane. Before temps crash at hour 72 its 19 on the N shore of Nassau county to 27 at KJFK. The high temp at KNYC is 19 so if there is any push , you could sleet w the surface at 15 before it goes back over. Most of the models want to push a lot of moisture ahead of the push and then collapses the entire column and snow behind it That's why the talk of rain is just dumb. People look at one level and never bothered to peak at the BL . The surface is south. The push people see are in the mid levels and not the surface. And they are quick to reverse. Excellent analysis. I've been at work flooded with rescue calls, so I haven't been able to look at specifics, but I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not that extreme. It happens more than one thinks. 20 degree day North? Probably 27 degree day South. South of Merrick rd for sure. -I will start posting my temps more in events like this or just in general. I've seen more than 10'degress before. All you need is a slight south wind. The only true south shore reporting station is JFK. Farmingdale and ISP aren't really on the shore so I don't think it's picked up enough unless you live down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Excellent analysis. I've been at work flooded with rescue calls, so I haven't been able to look at specifics, but I agree 100%. Thanks man. Be safe. We all appreciate the hard work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is one I gravely doubt would be any kind of changeover at NYC's latitude...all these east bound cyclones make their way eventually off the NJ coast or the Delmarva...especially on the 1st day of February...when things are about as suppressed as they can get climatologically...how many storms do you know that went from Pittsburgh to Allentown...to Hartford...lmao...they can't because they would run into those hills...it just doesn't happen...if you get mixing...probably confined from Sandy Hook, NJ south...maybe just scraping the S. Shore of L.I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is one I gravely doubt would be any kind of changeover at NYC's latitude...all these east bound cyclones make their way eventually off the NJ coast or the Delmarva...especially on the 1st day of February...when things are about as suppressed as they can get climatologically...how many storms do you know that went from Pittsburgh to Allentown...to Hartford...lmao...they can't because they would run into those hills...it just doesn't happen...if you get mixing...probably confined from Sandy Hook, NJ south...maybe just scraping the S. Shore of L.I. I mean obviously south of the low there will be mainly rain...but that would probably be confined to the southern half of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is one I gravely doubt would be any kind of changeover at NYC's latitude...all these east bound cyclones make their way eventually off the NJ coast or the Delmarva...especially on the 1st day of February...when things are about as suppressed as they can get climatologically...how many storms do you know that went from Pittsburgh to Allentown...to Hartford...lmao...they can't because they would run into those hills...it just doesn't happen...if you get mixing...probably confined from Sandy Hook, NJ south...maybe just scraping the S. Shore of L.I. This is our wheelhouse climatologically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is our wheelhouse climatologically About 20 January to 20 February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is our wheelhouse climatologically I think WSO Upton has an average February snowfall (for the month) of just over a foot the last 14 years..previously, it was closer to 9 or 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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