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Pre-Christmas Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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A lot of "ifs" with this storm potential still. If this trough goes all positive tilt, it'll be a strung out, icy/mix mess with only a narrow corridor of snow on the northern side. The northern extent of the precip is all blown up on this run due to the negative tilt on the shortwave that ejects from the base of the longwave. I'm not convinced that will happen.

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Wow. The 12z Euro is a beauty for the subforum next Sat-Sunday-Mon. Gulf Low. 

 

Shows a powerful winter storm, around 8+ inches. Its also slightly further south with the initial Low, so we'll have to wait and see if it trends further south. 

Except for Ohio. Not good to have a storm track over your head. 

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Euro sucked for Ohio. Pretty mild from the 18th onward. Looks like more a Chicago type setup right now.

 

7+ days out?...  Yea, maybe it sucks exactly as depicted...but I'll take my chances on a pressing banana high and waves coming out of the southern plains/gulf.   Low #2 is the one for us to watch.  

post-622-0-46112600-1387060710_thumb.jpg

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IWX already has a snippet about the first storm in their afternoon forecast discussion.

PTYPE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNINGINITIALLY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...BUT MAY END AS A WINTRY MIX OFFZRA/SLEET/SNOW LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN STRONG UNDERCUTTINGCOLD ADVECTION TIMED WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS(SUPPORTED BY LAST SEVERAL ECMWF RUNS AND BULK OF GFS ENSEMBLEMEMBERS) FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE/SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THEMIDWEST/GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVENTUALLYEJECTS OUT THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER OH VALLEYBAROCLINIC ZONE.
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From Larry Cosgrove and his weekly newsletter...

"The read I get on this system is threefold: one, that it is underdone due to model error (weak bias on GFS and ECMWF in the 144 - 180 hour time frame); secondly that the cold advance will be slightly more south and east than what current equation runs are showing (owing to favorable "gap" between the Gulf of Alaska ridge complex and the Sargasso Sea High); and the this feature will set up a major ice and snow event from western and northern Texas and Oklahoma into the Corn Belt and southern Ontario. Cities such as Dallas TX; St. Louis MO; Chicago IL; Indianapolis IN; and Detroit MI may be in line to see critical power and travel issues from ice and snow, followed by bitter cold."

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