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Received a whopping .06" from all the activity yesterday, followed by another .07" today. T&L all around but only a few occasional drops here. Congrats to all of those who are cashing in on the totals...

FINALLY getting some rain out here near Gainesville. First time it has been more than a few token drops all weekend. Got 1 in and it is still falling hard.

You can see on the maps four major differences to now if it isn't clear: 1) In 2023, you had hot water east of Mexico, cold water west of Mexico. That implied high pressure off the West Coast, and low pressure of the east coast. Absolute worst possible case for monsoon development. Followed the hottest June on record in Mexico, and coincided with the hottest July (and month) ever locally. in 2026, the warm water west of Mexico implies low pressure and the colder Gulf implies high pressure - nearly ideal pattern for moisture. Monsoon has been quite strong in Mexico since May and should pick up locally here too in the next week. 2) NE/SE Atlantic are night and day different - much colder now than 2023. 3) Coldest waters are relatively in the Atlantic now. Not the Pacific. 4) The SE Pacific (SW of South America) is much warmer, consistent maybe with steady weakening of the -PDO, just as the -PDO seems to be weakening somewhat in the NE Pacific. Still present though for both spots.

Awesome shot Jeremy. Wow!!! With this last bit of rain in the last 30 minutes or so, we are almost to half an inch here. I'll gladly take it, though we are on the lower end of rainfall totals in the area. Let it keep rainin'

Looking toward North Hills:

I'd make a hefty wager someone files a lawsuit and I'd wager if they do a settlement is reached. Emotional trauma or something along those lines.

Moderate to heavy rainfall here in Lucketts started up around 10:35.

Nobody was hurt so they’ll be fine.

It was an odd rise in temperature, 5 miles away at Newport News International Airport maintained 99 degrees with a heat index of 110 degrees.

Low clouds started moving east to west about an hour ago

2-3ft here….not even a dusting in Methuen. Good thing it’s not 5-6 months from now.

I think the only exception to that was parts of Monmouth County, NJ and some locations on Staten Island and along the South shore. Certainly the northern locations with 5-7" it was spread out to avoid any flash flooding. Gotta believe BJ's is going to have lawsuits for not maintaining their rooftop drains. Litigious society and all.

Which is more likely? ONI at 3.5, or 3.5 pages without mention of snow in the Northeast. I know what I'd bet on. July 2015 was actually very much dead on the long-term temp correlation for Nino 1.2, 3, 3.4, 4, etc. This year has been less so month to date. The pattern right now for July looks a lot like the 2023-24 winter - very warm NE 1/4 of the US, a bit cool or near average West & South. But July 2023 itself was cold North Central. The Modoki El Ninos that are cold in the East in winter tend to be cold in July in the East: 2004, 2009, 2014 were all cold in the East or Northeast for both. Best indication that everything is "clicking" correctly for US El Nino impacts is the long-term precipitation tendency. We're not there yet. Amarillo-Boise zone is not behaving yet. Northeast and Florida should be much better too. The map (even accounting for Tropical Tidbits adjusting for global SSTs by global mean above average) for oceans looks very different to July 2023.

My typical zero in fuquay varina...lol. Glad Falls lake got some good rain!

Also maxed out at 99.0 before the clouds arrived and heat index was 112 which I believe was highest of the entire heat wave here

Under the stratiform rain coming off the cells in southern Fairfax and still get .2+ inch per hour rates.

Wow that sucks. I’m lucky here in New Windsor having power. Just broke the 5” reading with 5.03” currently.

Have to wonder if that heavy rain near the islands makes it this far north before it gets blasted east.

Don’t think I need to water in morning. 2.89” here. Radar estimates show over 6” just east of my location. Maybe more to come overnight? 3.03” MTD

This is what we are. A very good but not top level team. Can't make mistakes like they did tonight and expect to beat a top 10 team.

So far this has been the perfect" pre season game" for the methuen area...not a drop of rain has fallen while areas to the south have been "buried".... #TOTALWASTELAND

The good news for most was that it was spread out over 24 hrs which mitigated flood risks

I’m sure these will dissipate and we’ll get a couple hundredths of light stratiform rain.

Should be a good rain to soak in later tonight and tomorrow. I came home to El Paso. Ground is hard as a rock. Windy here tomorrow too.