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Might be a decent light show tonight SOP

93L likely became a brief tropical storm overnight based on the LLC seen on visible this morning but since that time convection has been ripped well to east of center. Might be a numbers booster in post season analysis

More storms coming through this afternoon.

il fixing to stat pad with some more spinups? at this point it's taking the all-time record from tx or bust

Unreliable Heat Index?

There’s a decent chance for a record breaking long phase 6 this month. It started in phase 6 on Aug. 3rd: The latest GEFS, one of the more reliable for the MJO in the WPAC, has phase 6 through the entire run, Aug 26th, except it has it on the border of phase 5 Aug 18-20th: The EPS has it in phase 6 through 8/23: These are the longest phase 6 periods on record (back to late 1974): 6/13-30/1984 18 days 7/28-8/18/1984 22 10/6-20/1988 15 7/15-8/4/1996 21 2/25-3/10/1997 14 11/16-12/1/1998 16 7/19-8/1/2018 14 10/13-31/2022 19 1/5-21/2026 17 So, the longest phase 6 is currently the 22 days of late July-Aug of 1984 with the 2nd longest of 21 days mid July-early Aug 1996 (both near same time of year). The GEFS is suggesting the current one could reach 24+ days while the EPS has it ending up at 21 days.

I may get clipped or may miss this mcs by a few miles. Will be real close

We UHI

hrrr rather insistent on training cyclone following another mcs out of iowa tomorrow droughtville to flood headlines can sure hit you fast in the modern era

Consistent miss south for Madison and points north in southern Wisconsin, as well. Naturally Wausau area managed a few severe storms late last night despite being well north of even the marginal risk contour.

Looks like I-90 on south, roughly.

Not mad at all by the miss south, we’ve been blessed locally. Plus we still get to see the cool looking clouds out in the distance even with no rain.

jelly^

This seems realistic given what is fairly likely (robust and energetic subtropical jet that brings above to perhaps much above normal precipitation to the southern tier). It seems that the initial outlook discounted the 2009-10 analog (as it should). Fall seems more uncertain, as one is dealing both with a lot of variables and the seasonal transition.

I have had back and forth loud rumbles to howitzers since midnight. I'm seriously saying 1 or more a minute for the last 9 hours straight. I don't think I've ever had a lightning/thunder streak this long since I've lived here. Doesn't bother me at all normally but its really starting to get on my nerves now (my dog has 4mg's of xanax in him. He's gonna need a therapist). Rumble rumble rumble then bam. Even the rumbles are those far off explosive sounding strikes. Almost every blast of lightning is CG, no upper cloud stuff. Its freakin' nutz. The rain was pretty steady also, another 2.5in since last night bringing my 2 day total to 7. But just to my SSE they have been getting pummeled even worse, 4-7 inches overnight. The training over East Central/SE IN/SWOH is unreal. Every time I've checked the radar since this started around midnight they are just covered. If that next bow sustains and and doesn't swing to our south the ground is completely saturated primed and ready for tree falls with any wind. Once again, I hate these setups with a passion. Give me a single SUP with a TOR any day. Here and gone lol. This is like WWI trench warfare crap. Think I'm shell shocked lol

The one next year is really the one to see. If I had a million dollars I'd probably go to Gibraltar for it.

These would be perfect on some scrambled egg ice cream. Someone needs to invent that

4-6" with an immediate changeover to rain? I guess it would be payback for the February blizzard....

I ended up with 0.67 inch for the day. There may be another complex rolling through this afternoon/evening based on radar analysis upstream, but again, NWS doesn't seem to make much of it.

All this concentration on Winter but Fall comes first. Fall is one of my favorite times of the year. October in MI is amazing so I'm hoping it is mostly dry, cool and sunny.

makes u think^

Glad to see you got some good rains...we had some very small hail here in Hixson around dinner time but got about 0.5". Then another round at 11p....

Good quick explainer.

hate when that happens on the plus side, you'll get more chances, we haven't locked a rof pattern in like this in a long time

Got over 2" from a very vivid storm last night. Lots of trees down this morning.