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All snow currently in Halls, light to moderate with dimes. No mixing that I can tell yet. Temp was up to 32 earlier, down to 29 currently.

Yes that’s what that usually means.

Tick snowier

Pretty much the same as previous run

It funny how it’s colder in the Triad than most of the NC mountain locations. Heck, Durham is much colder than Asheville

As someone in the industry, it’s not for no reason. Thank energy policy this past decade which pre maturely rushed the closure of coal fired power plants. You can’t replace that capacity overnight, it takes significant investment, much more than any company can possibly shell out without passing on. Luckily, electricity is still the best bang for your buck. It fuels almost every aspect of your life daily, for roughly the cost of a value meal.

Still the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen. 5” an hour, flakes the size of actual pancakes

This storm looks nothing like the models we have been watching or am I not seeing something

Or maybe don’t take things so personally. At the end of the day, it’s just snow. It’s not gonna make anyone’s life better.

This is one of the most widespread winter storms for the nation period. The guy on Fox Weather (Ari something) said yesterday that he's never covered a system this expansive (in terms of frozen/freezing precipitation) in his 20 year career.

Maybe 10” is the boom scenario and 4-8 is the most likely outcome?

1st and probably only call I’m gonna do with this. I could’ve just put a text box that said 10-18” on it and called it a day and would’ve had the model support to defend it. But I am hedging some on the NAM thermals being at least partly right and a bit more sleet intrusion. Not full NAM, but somewhere in between that and the general consensus. These are purely snow numbers, obviously the reduced zones in the southern tier are for sleet mixing, but if that were to occur than sleet accumulations would be fairly notable as well (perhaps an inch or so). The only reason I’m giving the NAM a bit more weight in what is mainly a snowier consensus is strictly its handling of mid-level features and the warm nose. If the snowier consensus wins out, then the whole subforum simply sees 12-18”. Impact wise, that really isn’t that much of a difference.. this is going to be disruptive. I also think top end will be tempered a bit, mainly for speed of the system. Mostly I think there will be a lot of 14s and 15s with some 16-18” reports sprinkled in. It doesn’t look like any kind of a comma head lingers in C-PA to drive widespread amounts toward the 20” mark. What could overcome that is a fast start to the heavier snows when the best snow ratios will be before the mid-levels of the column start to warm later in the event. Both of these points were mentioned in CTP’s disco from yesterday.. which was a good informative discussion.

Wondering if this storm is going to ultimately have the lowest tracking/posting to snowfall ratio ever.

I did....lol

how did the euro run? I was at the shopping center. I'm driving right now.

Sleet is picking up over here in SW Lewisville.

No it’s all good out fishing and it’s pretty nice out actually with the wood stove ripping in the shack lol

West based Greenland blocking might be in play due to the strat background state taking place during this time period. Would love to get a Manitoba Mauler to pop off NC and explode and do a loop de loop off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Been waiting decades.

The Winter lecture my professor just posted for winter weather forecast actually has a slide on Kuchera method. One of the bullet points Does not account for vertical velocity, depth of DGZ, saturation of DGZ, dry layers near surface, time of year, or stability Often overpredicts snowfall in in very cold airmasses and in marginal/mixing situations

Let’s hope that theme continues well east.

When you say Max 10" or whatever does that mean some isolated areas will receive up to 10"?

Still 35 here

my thermometer has never been below zero until today. I got it in April

I want to ask about the “mileage” of “near 95”. Along 95 and 5 miles away, or 10 or20 or 30? Thanks