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Hey dude. My 80 yr old bud got whacked good from what looks like to me as an isolated downburst with 6 to 10 trees down. Huge uprooted tree just missed his house.

why?

Sunny and 51! At least it’s not 60’s

the 11 best enso analogs (we won’t know which actually end up the best for another month or two) since 2000 are the Novembers of 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2024 There does seem to be some correlation between a colder November and a better chance at snow those winters. These are stats for BWI. The 4 warmest November’s were 2001, 2011, 2022 and 2024 and those years went on to average 3.9” of snow. The 4 Coldest were 2000, 2013, 2017, 2021 and they went on to average 19.4” Now let’s assume 2013-14 was a fluke outlier (which I do) even if we remove it and replace it with the next coldest year 2005-6 the mean is 14.5” which is close to a median winter at BWI and significantly better than 3.9” So it does seem colder November=better

GEFS have been way west of the op not sure why?

@LibertyBell we need wetlands, you're going to have to get over it lol sorry bud

That, or high elevation snow, if that scenario is to be believed.

Well, they aren't environmental scientists, or biologists, after all.

11/2 looking exciting on the 12z gfs!

Assuming by neutral you mean "cold" neutral for ENSO (excluding warm neutral years) - I get the following (1990 & later) after -1 or colder novembers at KIAD: 1995-96 1996-97 2000-01 2008-09 2013-14 2021-22 Avg snowfall for those winters is 28.4" at IAD. But that includes two big years, so if we take those out, we get a more realistic target of 13.7" similar to last year.

1988-9: 0.9” (Feb) 1989-90: 8.0” (Dec) (record) Same consecutive years for SAV

DeepMind 12Z has Melissa at a Cat 3 SSE of Jamaica.

That 180-degree split in potential tracks has me worried for Jamaica, Cuba and western Bahamas. I wanted to get to Andros this winter riding the Bahemian mailboats. I know it's an outside chance, but SE Florida is still in play at this point, right? (Esp if the trough over the midwest moves east in a hurry?)

Had a vivid rainbow right after +RN squall at 44 degs here. Qpf over-performing as well

All of the people predicting a mid October heat-wave 4 - 6 weeks ago were pitifully wrong........

This is a very complicated forecast, I feel for the NHC.

The surface center continues to track sw of the NHC forecast.

crystal clear blue skies are aesthetically very pleasing but not exciting weatherwise lol. This was a great day though, maybe the best out of the next 10. If it's windy later this week you'll see me complaining about allergies lol.

Pesticides are more trouble than they are worth. I grow my own veggies organically without any. We have carcinogenic pesticides in our water here on Long Island, the consequences of farm runoff. This is something where technology can come to the rescue, large farms are now using laser powered drones to effectively zap pests. I don't mind the pesticides you've mentioned those are pretty safe. My issues are with organophosphates and 3,5-Dioxane.

Thanks a ton! Great tips.

That New Foundland warm pool makes me suspect we are going to see the infamous -NAO linkage with the WAR/SE ridge

Hope for what ? Another mundane outcome

we could not grow the amounts of food we do without pesticides. period. and we'd be inundated with roaches without them too. not all pesticides are onerous; boric acid and baking soda are pesticides. pyrethrins are pretty safe. if you've ever had a roach hitch a ride in your groceries and drop an egg sack, you would be much more inclined to be friendly to pesticides.....

Winds will also be gusty going into tonight with the next cold front passing through. Tomorrow will definitely feel like fall with several not making it out of the 50s.