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  2. MUWX
    The GFS just keeps getting worse.
  3. stormtracker
  4. franklin NCwx
    Im starting to think northern Mississippi, N Bama, N GA through the upstate will be the sweet spot. Perfect over running event with the high working in tandem over the Midwest
  5. midatlanticweather
    From a N stream system or a Southern stream system view in a fast moving environment, these two scenarios make sense.. and suck
  6. Carvers Gap
    I think we are about to find out that models which were trying to crash a slp into a 1045 were maybe out to lunch.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    GFS is a step back from 12z as it doesn't have any real interaction between the NS and SW. However, as mentioned in my post still a chance we get a storm from the NS if it dives enough south. As for the RGEM and NAM they both look good I like them as they have NS energy entering into where it may capture the SW like every other model.
  8. olafminesaw
    Seems to be delayed with the primary impulse which has been the trend lately. I think it's going to be a good run for many
  9. aldie 22
    What storm was it recently where we were in the bullseye but there was some suppression risk and then the bleed started to happen and it ultimately ended up a Norfolk blizzard?
  10. stormtracker
    Gets light snow up to us at 132/135
  11. Thrasher Fan
    Out to 114h and we do get a bit of a jog south.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    AI is wayyy south. Suppression is a very major concern.
  13. milleand
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z AIGFS has completely abandoned its amped solution - almost a pure slider now w/ even a secondary wave of over-running right behind it. And right behind that...a clipper.
  15. Franklin0529
    Of course there's gonna be flip flopping. Not gonna stay the same every single run
  16. Interstate
  17. Wurbus
    I believe its the only model holding the Baja low back now. Whatever it spits out is probably not going to be correct
  18. 87storms
    The upper level flow is still very much NS dominant. Your idea of the southern stream energy coming out in pieces makes more sense than one big storm imo and, frankly, is what the h5 map shows on the gfs. We’re up against atmospheric memory rn.
  19. WeatherGeek2025
    thread got jinxed
  20. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah but that news is being tempered a bit at the moment... ai runs are more south this afternoon, smh
  21. WestBabylonWeather
    Called it lol
  22. Reb
    Also more suppressed vs 12z
  23. MillvilleWx
    Different types of setups for those two. Those were split flow phasers in a pattern where blocking was prevalent. Atmosphere slows down and allows for phasing more easily. This one is more overrunning with blocking to the north to anchor in a cold high and maintain a general WSW to ENE progression of waves ejecting out of the southern plains.
  24. BornAgain13
    18z GFS looks to be further south. That High really pressing down
  25. mitchnick
    This is the way it works. If southern VA is the bullseye at 120hrs, it'll basically stay put with minor changes. If we're in the bullseye at 120hrs, it's heading north. Always been that way.
  26. SEwakenosnowforu
    I live in fuquay varina and it was 22 and snowing all during last years event. The storm we had before that...2022 or 2024 also low 20s
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