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Chuck was high on this period I think before you, me, and PSU. I think a Chuck storm might be exactly what we need. But if he makes a single post about a negative fucking PNA it automatically gets transferred to someone else.

I feel confident that we have the equipment already in place in Kingsport which can seed clouds. Those little ground based, propane powered silver iodide dispersers...ain't got nothin' on the thermal ability of the Model City.

YOS.

I'm hoping for more than mood flakes on Sat as I expect that to be the snowier day for me. I think LI and southern NJ has a decent shot of accumulating snow on Sun. But I'm not closing the door on a significant west trend.

Round and round we go...but think a small event is in order here

RGEM very westerly.

The model thats gonna replace the NAM the RRFS A.

Toss. (Except for model huggers. Enjoy the next 6 hours.) Our flagship American model is just as unreliable.

reggie is rain to long lasting snowstorm 4-5 inches

Reggie west. Let’s sacrifice Saturday for Sunday night

I just looked. Nice little event

Lovely write up. For a change I don't think it's all hype and BS. I seem to remember this feedback loop being enhanced when PVA tracked close to the Gulf states and picked up additional moisture inflow... which is what is forecast by most models to occur.

34 and ripping -GSSN

My temp didn’t go above 31 this afternoon and at 4:30 already down to 27.5

This is a wildly difficult forecast. I mean it could literally be nothing outside of some Saturday mood flakes or we could see legitimate accumulations closer to the coast. I don’t envy the Mets who have to communicate this stuff to the public.

18z RDPS further West with more moisture, but too warm at the surface for most east of 77.

So we've moved on to the next head fake have we? Ok, cool. Count me in. Ya know, we do this to ourselves.

Thank you good sir. Yes, I’ve been to that Brimmer’s a number of times over the years. Today I just went to the Rohrerstown DMV and believe it or not I was in and out, got there right when they opened. ‘Twas quite pleased. I believe you have to go to a PennDot center for real ID, so no dice on Brimmer’s.

So our options are so far out to sea or so far west it’s rain?

We need you to come wade through our mess and be the voice of reason. You know how we get when there’s model madness. In the same boat as many of you! Hang in there, we’ll score eventually. Mother Nature hasn’t been too kind for eastern Tenn through the foothills of NC.

I love how it's snowier than 12z. Lovely model battle

I have always hated the Germans.

From Eric Webb (aka my current hopium dealer) There are positive feedbacks between warm advection, precip, latent heat release, and wave tilt/amplitude that a lot of, if not most, models are going to miss in setups like these, which make them especially tricky to forecast. It’s easy for a lot of people and forecasters alike to get caught up in the models and underestimate the effect these processes and the magnitude of impact they can have on even a short range forecast. This positive feedback loop involves warm advection and upglide aloft generating more precip and latent heating, which force -PVa ahead of our upper trough, causing the wave to slow and tilt the over more negatively/less positively. The increased wave tilt is able to advect more warm/moist air aloft over the Arctic front, which triggers more precip, etc.When your air mass is super marginal like this and the large-scale flow is diffluent downstream (ridging off Newfoundland), you’re even more vulnerable to this positive feedback running away in a hurry and amplifying the short-term changes in the models. This is just the kind of recipe that can lead to big forecast busts, especially on the north & west side of these systems where the warm advection is weaker but also closer to the snow growth zone aloft

Quite surprised how that looked....it was west with Saturday too, but would sacrifice Saturday for the look Sunday. The timing is odd too, snowing here on Sunday, early morning

A sustained colder-than-normal period is commencing. The temperature will tumble into the 20s overnight and then rise only to the middle 30s tomorrow. With the exception of Saturday, highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on Sunday and Monday. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least the most of next week. Flurries and perhaps a heavier snow shower are possible on Saturday and Sunday as a renewed flow of cold air moves across the region. Any accumulations should be light (mainly a coating to an inch). A coastal storm could begin to develop off the Southeast coast and then track south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. On such a track, it could bring a period of light snow to eastern Long Island into southeastern New England on Sunday into Sunday night. After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall. The probability of a PNA+ regime has increased in recent days. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +11.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.231 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.1° (-0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.