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Had a low of 56 with guess what more rain this morning.

For the record, the 0Z Euro center stays just offshore S FL as it recurves to northward motion 100 miles offshore at 360. Of course, the 360 hour position on an operational has very little credibility. Only 3 of the 50 0Z EPS members come within 300 miles of S FL from this with none hitting there throughout the run. One out of 50 (2%) threatens to hit S FL while still near Andros Island at 360.

Low of 61. Rain chance this evening and again on Saturday, and then we get another taste of fall. Happy Thursday, y’all.

16-17: Slightly below avg here but above for the immediate coast with the big early Jan storm 17-18: Avg/slight above avg snowfall here; above avg for the coast> Da bomb cyclone in Jan 21-22: Above avg snowfall for much of the coastal plain 24-25: Above avg snowfall for much of the coastal plain Long term annual avg snowfall for my area is 18.5".. No idea what it actually is anymore, but probably anything over 16" is above.

Looks like a back and forth pattern setting up this month. Next chance for low 90s at the usual NJ warm spots Friday into Saturday. Then cooler weather returns for next week with a warm up again in mid-September.

00z Euro and 06z GFS are amazingly almost identical in the 240-360 hour range. Both crush the bahamas and then ride up the southeast coast.

Euro hits Florida Gfs is a tick south so far but still running.

The big story in the Arctic last few summers has been the record warmth in the Kara and Barents seas areas with the very low sea ice extent there. https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/august-2025-arctic-sea-ice Regional Sea Ice The Atlantic side of the Arctic has had very low ice extent all summer, with the Barents and Kara Seas almost entirely open water for much of late July and August. The pack ice edge at the end of August was near 82N, 200 km or more north of the Svalbard and Franz Josef Land archipelagos. The climate impacts of the lack of ice were dramatic. The only real-time climate station in Franz Josef Land, Polargmo Im. E. T. Krenkelja on Heiss Island at 80.6N, did not record a temperature below freezing in August. At Wiese (Vize) Island, a small island in the northernmost Kara Sea at 79.5N, the temperature has remained above freezing since July 16 (47 days as of September 2). Last summer, the longest freeze-free period there was 11 days and in summer 2023 the longest was only 4 days. On the Pacific side of the North Pole, ice loss in the Beaufort Sea increased during August, but plenty of ice remained at the end of the month in the eastern part of the basin. The Northern Sea Route, along the north coast of Russia, was open to most vessels by late August. The Northwest Passage, connecting Canadian waters with the Bering Strait, was close to being open for non ice-hardened traffic, but mobile areas of higher concentration ice persisted at the end of August in Amundsen Gulf, the southeastern-most portion of Beaufort Sea.

Anyone have any insight on rocky mountain national park? Gonna be in colorado for a few days for a work thing in 2 weeks, most likely what we’ll spend our free time exploring i think.

It will be called Barry GBP and will be a catastrophe on the forum.

Gotta' give it to him. That's a whole lot of words for a non-forecast.

Gfs and GGEM really like Saturday now as well. Euro, as always, remains cagier.

Starting to see the wave more clearly consolidate now. Should become an invest today if that trend continues imo.

PIOMASS sea ice volume is currently number 2 behind 2012. Volume losses were unusually low this year in June, similar to 2017 in that regard.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 402 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-050815- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 402 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible today.

OI LAD @GaWx

0Z: -Icon is a little SW of the 12Z with it at 18N, 55W at 180 moving WNW -The UKMET on again off again is now back to off with the low not strong enough to be classified a TD. -Early in the GFS run, it’s a little N of the 18Z position at 138 hours.

Release the Epstein files!

The actual correlation to the Winter NAO consists of two area: cold up north, and warm below New Foundland correlates with Winter +NAO and warm up north and cold below New Foundland correlations with Winter -NAO. Erin really did a lot of cooling in the southern region, but it's actually a 5-month average (May-Sept), and May-Aug so far is running +NAO probability because the north part has been so cold. Here's the Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs -> Winter NAO correlation (default positive) Here is May-Aug so far: Weak Winter +NAO signal overall. Edit: ^That was only August, but it does show how we are progressing lately. Here is May-Aug.. it comes out at a +0.22 DJFM mean NAO prediction

I think people need to temper their expectations a bit. It's not supposed to be nonstop 80s and 90s all summer long. I was reading P. Vanderbilt Spader's weather record for New Brunswick, New Jersey. He installed self-registering max/min thermometers on February 1, 1857, with periodic records back to 1847. And it looks very similar to those old Newark records you shared earlier this summer. I'm not sure what's going on here, but the summer temperature and precipitation regime looks more like New Brunswick, Canada than New Brunswick, New Jersey. Looks cold and wet. Very weird. Weather Record for New Brunswick, New Jersey, 1847-1890 - Google Books

The Wednesday evening hi-res guidance is very encouraging for Thursday late afternoon / early evening convection, especially over central Maryland.

Thanks for the update, Don. Akron, Ohio saw its driest month on record. Not just driest August, but driest of any month. Looking over the numbers, it looks like Ohio had either its driest or second driest August on record. Pennsylvania looks like a top 5 driest August as well. I didn't look at any other states, but it looks like dryness prevailed from Missouri to Maine.

2013/14 is an analog... Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk