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Official forecast model:

The regular Euro ensemble from 12z:

Norlun on Saturday ?

Everyone busting on the weak pos. Tomorrow morning in the lowlands

That is true. It is only good if it is a paste job for photos. Half the reason I got so upset about this last one is because of missed photo ops with a big one in Raleigh that could have caught on.

First true “thaw” day in well over a week. 50 degrees, all snow is gone from sun, working on the last of it in shaded areas now. My strategically reinforced and shade placed snow piles have some staying power though

The amount of happy chemicals my brain managed to derive from a ten-minute lunch break dog walk in 28 and sunny almost just shot me straight through "I guess I'd still take a big dawg" season.

To torch for Valentine’s weekend or no torch; that is the question

February snow generally sucks unless it’s a coastal with heavy rates or at night. Even last years storm didn’t stick on roads until sunset even though it was in the mid 20s

It's a legit threat. Not all longwave patterns are created equal. Not all -PNA's are created equal. A -PNA pattern without any blocking and a scorched N America with no cold air anywhere is never going to work, and that is what we've had when we've had a -PNA most of the time lately. A -PNA with blocking and a N America covered in snow and cold air left over could possibly work. Yes it will be a warmer pattern, yea any wave COULD end up rain...but at least there will be waves coming at us and room for them to amplify.

It has WAA thump event 13/14th range.

I set up a topic for whatever happens on Friday. The last one I did overperformed for many

This should be a fun one to radar watch tomorrow evening. Someone could get a pretty decent band out of this and some decent accumulation, but probably won’t where know until it sets up. Think anyone in northern half of NC has a chance

Dosent go out that far lol

ASOUT

I’ve got fiberglass panels on the back and the clear on the front. It’s a little greenhouse in there on sunny days.

I figured the last one I set up for this type of thing did well a few weeks ago. Models seem to give SNE at least a bit of snow as the temps go down. Weenei away to 1-3"... Kev thinks 3-6"

My expectations for this winter weren't that high to begin with .The pattern has already verified quite a bit colder then I would have thought, due to my solar cycle biases. Hopefully, when we reap the benefits of the SSW later this month we're not in the hostile phases of the MJO and can time some other interactions properly. As far as any guidance goes, I don't put any emotion or thought into any qualitative or quantitative forecast this far out for a number of my own reasons, but mainly because I just can't handle the f****** ride. Until we're inside 96 to 72 I view most of the data as noise and look for other cues .

I feel like Elliott at MU downplays wind almost as much as he does wintry weather. Having said that, he's already emphasizing that Saturday will feature 60mph winds...

000NOUS61 KOKX 031615FTMOKXMessage Date: Feb 03 2026 16:15:43KOKX radar will be down for maintenance today until ~2330z.

Are the heavies centered over NC and the coast? If so, it's snow.

few days in the 30s but much cooler compared to 12z yesterday and 0z last night

The “snow” is officially starting to look kinda crusty. I’d be cool with a thaw/washout and possible reboot later in the month.

The Jan ‘26 30 mb QBO came in at -25.51, Jan’s 2nd lowest on record to only 2015’s -26.7: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data Based on the patterns since 1948, there’s a very high chance (I’d say 95%) that it will be positive by next winter, and there’s a better then even chance for the next +QBO period to even start by late summer.

6:40p after 18z Euro