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We would need some very good snow seasons in order to surpass the worst average snowfall in recorded NYC history. A very tall ask in a warming world

Just hit an inch in Nelson County.

Don't let them break your spirit .

Thanks, as always, I’m just showing potential chances! As @Itstrainingtime says, we can’t shovel potential… but it’s great to see we have chances to score next week.

2.5 now here. Yard is starting to flood.

Incidentally uncle wants to play…albeit a bit too far east.

Lee side low precursor is definitely there on modeling...whether it happens or not won't come into focus until the short range has a grasp imo. Would be a scenario where totals increase from west to east across the greater eastern valley.

Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Faust, Cashiers, and Highlands 1208 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected above 3500 feet. * WHERE...Buncombe, Graham, Haywood, Macon, Madison, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Southern Jackson, Swain, and Yancey Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Please if only… Lol!

Apparently, she converted you since you are now a warlock.

12z GFS full cycle kuchera snowmap .

Alot is dependent on what that TPV lobe does. The Canadian is vastly different from the GFS and dives that south into the country, the GFS scoots it east. Ideally, we want it to get out of the way like the GFS and just let the energy consolidate/cut off on its own

WWeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee this is gonna be a fun ride. Happy weekend gang.

it's notably more amped though

09-10 esq..... Been about that long since weve enjoyed back to back warnin level snows.

I started out slow but serious rates during the past hour have bumped me up to around .50". I'm down about 8 inches since June.

In fairness, Blizz isnt "callin" anything. If I may say on his behalf, we both are just seeing the potential (and he has an affinity to post perty maps). I'd gas up the car regardless.....thats a call I think we are safe making

Mount Holly has KEY messages in their AFD lol. Number 3 below- KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong frontal passage is expected later Wednesday with the potential of a coastal storm for Thursday and Friday as a secondary low develops off the coast. Impacts are very uncertain at this time depending how close the low tracks to the coast. By the middle of the week, an amplified upper level weather pattern is expected to develop of the eastern third of the United States. A strengthening and deepening upper level trough will be located over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, stretching all the way down toward the Gulf Coast by Wednesday night. At the surface, it is fairly confident, that a primary area of low pressure will be tracking across Ontario and Quebec with cold front trailing back across the Appalachians. This at the very least will lead to some shower activity across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures look to be several degrees above average, where highs will likely top out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Beyond Wednesday though, the pattern becomes highly variable and the differences amongst forecast guidance is fairly significant with regards to timing and location of upper level and surface features. While the upper level pattern is expected to shift east with time for the latter part of the week...what exactly happens with progression of the pattern is yet to be seen. For example, the 10/00Z GFS is the most aggressive with the pattern aloft, with a cut- off upper low tracking tracking across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with secondary surface low cyclogenesis ongoing right along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This scenario would likely bring widespread impacts of some sort to the area. Meanwhile, the 10/00Z ECMWF and CMC are both less amplified and aggressive with the trough, simply swinging the base of the trough off the coast with any secondary low development shunted well out into the western Atlantic. This scenario would likely equate to minimal impacts to the area. Ensemble guidance though, does support secondary coastal low development, so this system will need to be closely watched over the coming days to see how close this system may be to our coast. For now, have followed closely to NBM guidance which essentially carries a 20-30% chance of rain and/or snow across the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday night.

12z GFS says we could go 2 for 2 ! Second storm next Sunday this run produces another Warning level chance. This snow is ONLY for the Sunday storm chance.

wait 1 more day after 12Z Sunday runs IF there is more consensus with other models - disregard GFS snow totals now.......

I've been sayin for a couple days now, there is gonna b a lot of shit in da chute....so it really is gonna be a matter of timing, and why you are seeing a myriad of solutions being offered. NS is about to meet SS for first time in a while, and we just gotta figure out spacing/timing of vorts. No matter what we see in runs over the weekend, its really gonna b Mon/Tues till it gets sorted IMO. That said, its a HUGE win that the pattern is shaping up like it is. How much snow does ones back yard see....TBD, but I'm a tad giddy to see the pattern coming (and why I've been chirpin bout it since early this week.

UKMET is a non event

that last sentence is important and needs to be acknowledged more. these winters are warmer and with less snow than they would have been 20 years ago. 94-95 today could have been a shutout or single digit snowfall. The 2020s have the worst avg snowfall in recorded NYC history. Lets see if that changes

This is very close to a beast

If this one doesn’t work out we should all give up this hobby and go larping