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Radar appears to be more like the HRRR than the NAM's. For whatever that's worth.

You'll even the tables somewhat on Friday.

Yeah...hovering over the pixels in the Yukon on the map below, there's a modeled -71F at hour 312. I keep an eye on modeled temps up there in the winter, and seeing anything colder than -65F on the GFS (since it's a global model and therefore doesn't capture the local terrain/cold spots very well) is extremely rare. While I agree it could be driven by model feedback, it's still very impressive to see. As for ground truth...I believe the coldest temp in Alaska since 2000 is -64F in early Feb. 2024. So, if these modeled temps come close to verifying, I'd argue it would be the coldest temps in 25+ years in that part of the world. Great article on Alaska's 2024 cold outbreak here: https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/alaskas-2024-cold-snap Also, for anyone interested in Alaska weather & climate, this is a great blog: https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

EPS supports the Euro and that's not a really warm look in the long range. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New:

This has been a tough spell here

Still have time to work on it says the average weenie... 36F

-SN has commenced. 29.9°

Let’s go with its correct and be happy for a minute. Enjoy the DB. Happy Holidays!

New NAM's.

Whiplash anyone! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Latest disco: Models continue to advertise the possibility of a winter storm on Friday, particularly for locations north of I-66/U.S. 50. A preponderance of the 12Z guidance favor an area from I-70 northward across the Mason-Dixon Line into Pennsylvania. The setup is certainly favorable for a wintry mix dominated by freezing rain and sleet. Canadian high pressure builds over Quebec while a stationary boundary arcs west to east across the Carolinas. The resultant cold- air damming (CAD) signature is quite favorable to such setups. Low- level cold air becomes locked in place while warm advection above this layer ushers in milder air aloft into the (925-850 mb layer). Models are also hinting at some snow toward northern Maryland given colder thermodynamic profiles. All and all, travelers will need to consider this potential winter storm in their plans for Friday. Aside from this precipitation threat, it will be a chilly day across the region with highs in the 30s to low 40s (40s along the Alleghenies).

Feel your game. I am baking the crap out of cookies and slamming Devils Backbone Danzig Porters. 8%ers sneak up on you. As far as weather goes the longer range stuff has me intrigued. Big ole Greenland block, monster 50/50 and a split flow. But who knows if its correct or not.

I'm glad to be 110 degrees warmer than this

Driving through the Hudson Highlands today I observed a couple inches in New Windsor, Cornwall, Newburgh, Cold Spring, Fishkill, and Garrison. In Beacon there was absolutely nothing - just bare, wet ground. Elevations were roughly comparable - all less than 300ft. I've never seen that kind of disparity between Beacon and other river towns before. It must have been some kind of meso-effect with Mt. Beacon or the wind direction off the slightly warm Hudson River... plus being right on the edge of the main band... but that doesn't explain Fishkill to the east having snow. Fascinating... Congrats to those who scored today!

Hey Larry, Natural Gas March contract went up 7.5% today, while the January contract is up 11.5%. They two are pretty correlated so when there is a difference like that it tells me it's focusing on more shorter term. Since Europe uses NG heavily, a strong east-based -NAO here in the next week is a cold pattern for them. We could have used the late Nov Stratosphere warming to predict this NG move! Although if we got in late Nov, it still would have been a pretty substantial loss as there was a big move down throughout the month of December. $3.28 for the March contract is still cheap, but up from the $3.00 low. Under $4.50 basically implies a +NAO mean for the majority of the Winter, while over $4.50 would imply a mean -NAO pattern. I would guess that from now to March, the March NG contract rises from its current $3.28 price, I'd say probably about 65-70% likely.

This is exactly what I've been talking about this week. We've seen this time and time again. And especially on the EURO We've seen even colder solutions in the mid range. Some people are gullible.

But we just don’t know

.04 precip with marginal temps is not going to get it done. next.

Happy Festivus! I got a lot of problems with you people!

The GYX radar issue is looming large on the returns heading into Jeff. No snow for you!

He should add a + to the purple for some lucky folks.

Saw some geese flying to the South West. Torchmas officially cancelled.

New GYX map just came out.

its been great seeing positive trends moving closer to the window of interest versus negative trends. Something is going to work in our favor over the next 10-14 days.