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It’s a SWFE… the sleet is always closer than we think. Expecting 3” of slop here

ION, NAM also looks better for the SWFE tonight...(wrong thread, I know)....but good trends all around.

Great shift west with the icon

Nothing I want more than for that to tug N and stall off ACK lol. Stall won’t happen though but love to have the tug.

We all want a big ass storm with tons of snow. But let's not forget, beaches are going take a massive hit work potential erosion along with coastal flooding issues. Not 100%sure what the moon cycle is right now.

Lol I just tell it as I see it but if we want to splash a touch of sema magic on this, I’ll play the game for us.

I think much of S.NJ, the coast, and from about NYC to the east see a major storm but I think it will have a very sharp cutoff on the NW side -- this is one where. city and island could see double digits where areas just to the west see a 2-5 type event. Will be interesting to see if trends continue NW or if we start to see some settling of the models with better sampling present.

As I mentioned earlier, the NWS said in their AFDs that they were closely following the NBM, so given that the NBM has taken a decent bump upwards (maybe included the NAM already) at 07Z, I'd expect watches to go up for anywhere that is at at least 6" on that map, which includes this entire subforum basically and the Philly subforum too (note that this map includes previous snow from the Catskills northward).

Steve D in his latest video a few minutes ago on YouTube not buying into GFS solution at all. He said the double barrel low look that is tucked in is the model misinterpreting the inverted trough. Expects if anything, GFS low will trend east, not west.

Yes, I don't think we are done trending on that...I'm delaying my first map until late night bc I don't have the balls to go with my gut yet.

He's just saving the JuJu for Monday

RGEM has a narrow corridor that the IVT hits pretty hard

RGEM is pretty much steady as she goes. Edit: drier but really looking at the h5 and low track (former very similar, latter a bit west) it’s hard to say it’s not noise. IVT is gonna be tough to nail down.

ICON to my eyes looks well south of NAM/GFS correct? OFF NC

woof

32 at the shop in Simsbury. A couple weenie flakes have started

Nam has that too. Icon going big in SE MA

can see the little fuji here... slightly later phase with more NS involvement leads to later occlusion

I do remember, many moons ago, there was a temperature criteria of 20° or below. I know that has not been in place for a long time.

I kind of love these debates. I guess with Monday rush hour potentially in play (albeit barely), they can use their discretion and go under the 5" floor for a warning? Rare that they'd do that with the watch though. But yeah the actual NWS forecast right now is 1" through 7am Monday so gotta see that move up first....and it's going to FLY above freezing so fast monday....

improvements on the ICON but still going to be a couple degrees too warm for too much of the storm.......up next King GFS

Icon trended great Nam…. We want more keep going

This was an easy call on the trend NE....tougher sell was the track NW, but as you pointed out earlier, get that first trend significantly enough and it automatically pulls it NW and closer to us.