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Seems to be right on the verge of becoming a hurricane based on the latest pass. No new pressure measurement so they may have missed the center.

A toasty 44.6 here for the low

lol how'd they get a second rounder?

He is starting to wrap up.

Significant strengthening ongoing this pass

12Z UKMET is at its strongest of any run so far at landfall with 979 mb at 12Z on Sat at AL/MS border. Then it heads N along the border followed by NNW/NW into MS. The center is in NW MS as of GA/AL gametime. Tornadoes look like a problem in much of N FL/AL/GA while heavy rain and strong winds hit N MS/Memphis area Sat afternoon/evening due to the tightest gradient in that area at that time. Interesting.

"my neighbor got the peppers but he ain't getting these"

Did the Birds just toss in the towel on the season?? Cam Jurgens trade: Eagles send center to Ravens for draft picks | Bleeding Green Nation

That makes JI late to the party.

The latest hurricane models, like the HAFS, have backed off on the strength as Isaias struggles with dry air advection from the west all the way through the gulf.

This is another excellent point. I sometimes think some get too wrapped up in the reds and blues of a temp anomaly map. Dark red in Winnipeg and blue in Atlanta? Means it's only going to be 30F colder in Winnipeg than Atlanta instead of the normal 40F colder lol.

Seems he already knows where the next 25 days are headed so hang it up folks. Winter 26-27 time of death: 10/7/2026

Yeah the center is squarely under the convective burst ongoing at the moment, would expect another substantial drop on the next pass

I'm not a big tropics guy per say, but I am a fisherman. All I know is that these kind of fall systems produce epic bites and fights ,so my budy and I are going to be out Sunday and Sunday night, taking full advantage. I'm heading out now to stock the cooler with bait.

because being patient and logical with snow autists is a waste of time

Incredible organization since this morning’s flight. The inner core is well on its way to becoming established. Very tight core too

I think it’s worth tracking, but proceed with caution given the known ECMWF weak PV bias.

The latest dropsonde says 997 mb.

Yo @ineedsnow I guarantee you that this would piss some people off buddy Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

I thought the "theory" was the rate of change thru the entire month of October.

Thanks. So, what does all of this say in regard to the ECMWF’s forecasted weaker than avg SPV in Jan/Feb? Is that a legit signal of a likely weaker than normal SPV then?

The pressure dropped by several mb because the center of circulation has suddenly tightened up.