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After conducting a thorough quantitative analysis of all model and teleconnections verification scores, I have concluded: The model that predicts AN and no frozen precipitation in the SE verifies almost 100% of the time.

High of 31 in Kemp Mill and 29 Frederick. Snow still on ground in Frederick

Indiana is carving up Alabama, what a half

He got all sensy where brooklyn said it’ll warm up for the first 10 days of the month or so.

Uh-oh...Ravensrule bat signal just went up...better be careful! Oh, wait a minute!!!

Logan has been screwed more than me. Apparently N side of town only had 1.5-2” Today.

Who said first week? Seems like after the 7th we go AN for several days.

Warming. Not warm. It gets pretty warm after 1/7

Hmmm

Jan 25 2000. Seen it happen hundreds of times here…thousands

I'll say February. That's when we got that Blockbuster 4-in storm last year.

December is now in the books at MDT. -4.8 temperature departure 5.0” snow which is slightly above the 4.4 December average. Not a bad start to the Winter. Hopefully we have more chances to score snow as Winter continues.

Like the op, the GEFS has been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. 0z run compared to the most recent 18z run-

It's possible.

Clear. Windy. 15.9F

You must have 1994 on your mind!! Shades of @Bob Chill's total glaciation with a foot of ice!!

55 as the sun sets on this 1st day of 2026. .

GEFS is close enough to something to stay interested especially SE of DC

1/1: 0.1" T: 3.4"

How are we warm the first 10 days of the month ? I mean beer? It’s in the teens and 20’s for highs thru Tuesday . That’s Jan 6th. Maybe after that a few milder days but to say the first week of Jan is warm when it’s WBN is simply wrong

Yes, in the next 14 days I have four forecast days above 40. I may fill up the pool.

MAV mins for tonight. There’s actually a little WAA overnight too. I suppose it wouldn’t take much to decouple in the CRV after midnight if they can avoid clouds by then.

i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS

I was surprised, too. We’ll see whether anything measurable is added in the climate entry.

Happy New Year! Please post your Jan obs as well as current/recent wx occurring anywhere. Regardless of what the rest of Jan has in store, I’m outside enjoying another stellar day thanks to Canada!