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as do many here...

Yea, I'm just being neurotic. I was mentally resigning, and now have a foot back in and vulnerable.

I wouldn’t focus on the QPF That 500 mill bar combined with that surface there’s no way that thing isn’t causing major major snow problems, clear to Fitchburg

Yea, I said that about even the EURO....QPF won't sniff the mid level band.

NAM trending better out west. Still not where we want it tho so far

I thought he was discussing it with someone in Tuckahoe (southern Westchester county). Was just saying it was a solid storm there and never went to rain. It did go to sleet even up to my location earlier then initially forecast but still a top storm with 10+ snow/sleet combo Bronx north. Believe the city officially got 7-8” of mostly sleet.

With that 500 mill bar in that surface depiction the way that series has it? I know you just meant in general, but that thing would have huge wind and snow problems all the way in But I don’t use that model anyway so just commenting to what that looks like. It actually kind of reminds me of the old DGEX

That isn't what I would consider full commitment....

Dazed and confused?

Is this gonna be a wet pavement deal where it’s sleet/ mix or is it gonna be a mess? Plowable snow overnight tomorrow or something that can be melted off with salt? Trying to plan for a crew

GFS probably hasn't ingested the latest moon phase data. Once it does....it's over.

So that means the amped solutions are not reliable.

Could the GFS score a coup on this one, maybe, but it really just is a woeful model. The GFS holding on to a solution for run after run only to cave to other guidance in the short term is almost always what occurs. The verification scores show everything you need to know: The Euro, CMC (can't believe I'm saying that) and the Ukmet consistently outperform the GFS. Again, could the GFS be correct in this case, sure, but overall it is just not a serious model.

Moon angle might be deadly

I remember the 1 euro run for a day and we didn’t have QPF

Pretty sure this was written before every model caved to it. .

It does get exhausting, the thousands of international tourists coming and every one of them asking one thing: how do I get to the middle of nowhere in northern Connecticut, I've heard so much about it.

I’m actually wondering if the 00 runs just all come in like that… Maybe not that ferocious but you know full commitment

No new moon until March 18. But that’s the next storm. #1993vibes .

Nam is looking sharp so far. Still early

Some flags MHT south for me…dry air aloft and sim radar has that shredded look quickly after 00z. Wonder if it goes from steady snow to heavy showery junky frozen precip after a couple hours.

Either way I like the idea of only 2X/day I wonder how others feel about that. Maybe just the have the high res stuff run 4X/day. I kinda miss when the Euro only ran twice per day. The only main global that was running four times was the GFS. Now it's everything even the Canadian and UK run 4 times now in short range

Home...not even drunk. NAM look shaper with the northern stream so far