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Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°.

Remarkable turnaround

Ensembles give me hope. Could be foothills and mountains special

The great VD storm of 2026 has yet to show its face.

It has been so much fun in last two weeks to post actual, real weather events, outcomes, obs and discussions . It’s really what got these weather boards underway back in the day. 240-360 hour explosions over models is boring and generally futile and discouraging. But it was mostly the only thing going for years. This year we had winter weather!!

Transient high lowers the likelihood but winter has been winter this year, so why not? Been a long time since I’ve seen wet cement falling.

How is a random stranger to know? As for toughness, how would you know? You run away from the cold.

Zzzzzzz

Agreed. The duration of cold and snow cover making it feel like a real classic winter as long as we just put our phones down and take it all in. I’d give it a B- at least. But based on vibes and tracking, I feel last winter was more fun.

We can... but it doesn't mean "We do"

I don’t think we’re gonna crack freezing here. 31.4 and hasn’t moved in an hour

Just stick to the larger cities.

The higher ratios helped us out this winter with our snows since we have been continuing with this drier pattern since the fall of 2024.

To each …… his own …... As always …. .

Pretty snowy EPS run overall. Has more chances after the 16th too. Mean is double digits across a lot of New England. It’s not a frigid pattern but it’s just not submitting to the classic Feb Niña torch idea that has been an instinct to gravitate towards for many of us Mets. It’s a real struggle to get sustained large positive departures on these runs. You’ll see a run or two that starts to look like that but then it disappears the next run or even on the same run it can’t last more than a day or two. The in-situ blocking seems to dominate us locally while the plains have an easier time getting big warmth.

Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass. New run: Old run:

Don, what would be the one before 1982? Just wondering.

Of course it's a week away so we can hope that the high pressure won't be retreating as much as the current models show. Euro right now is showing a front end of a few inches and then a mix changing to rain. The position of the high pressure will be critical and we have a long way to go to figure that out.

The 12z CMC Ensembles with a huge increase for next weekend.

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

East River Mtn. Roof of the Tennessee Valley, sheltered hollows below it neared -20F last week. Lake Witten (Tazewell): Clinch River (New Garden): Clinch (Blackford Bridge) Upper Clinch (Near Swords Creek) Heck of a cold spell, been quite a show. The freezing has been impressive with even a snowpack on Witten! I'm not quite ready to let go of winter but I figure we could all use a break. Hoping for some upper 50s for a nice winter hike. Now on the other hand If we do score some marginal mid Feb winter wx in the window Carver is watching it will be the most impressive month long span of true winter in my memory. Flurries in Honaker, 27F.

Those southern and eastern outliers have the mean further SE than would otherwise be the case.

Snowman19 waiting for a Metfan post to weenie.

ICON got worse

Billerica proved that lol