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EPS is very chilly. Maybe 1 day of of warmth. 50s next 10 days Euro agree GFS not much better All told we probably squeeze out a couple nice days but temps will struggle with destructive sunshine. Huge pattern change

Love me some Windjammer food. View ain't bad either

No kidding, sitting with the family in the adirondack chairs overlooking the ocean at the Windjammer yesterday. Decent crowd for April on the beach.

We're either drowing or droughting. Not much in between it seems lately.

maybe even kill off some ticks Reminds me of a few Aprils ago (or maybe it was early May) but we had that dome of well below average 925/850mb temps overhead and yet we where still putting out ~ average.

Wow beautiful summer week. It was all a dream for a long time

Phase 8 will need to deliver the goods

Yeah, we got about .75 the 5th and 6th but nothing since. Of course we had some super soakers back in March but my memory doesn't work that far back anymore lol. Hope you're feeling better

April 17 1965: The Mississippi River at St. Paul has a record crest, 4 feet above the previous record. High water records would be set all the way down to Missouri in later days. For Friday, April 17, 2026 1922 - A family of at least six tornadoes caused death and destruction along parts of a 210 mile path from north of Ogden IL to Allen County OH, killing sixteen persons. A post card, picked up in Madison County IN, was found 124 miles away near Mount Cory OH. (The Weather Channel) 1953 - One of the few severe hailstorms accompanied by snow, sleet, glaze, and rain, pelted parts of Kay, Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Washington, and Rogers Counties in northeastern Oklahoma late in the day. Nearly 10,000 insurance claims were filed. (The Weather Channel) 1965 - The Mississippi River reached a flood crest at Saint Paul MN four feet higher than any previous mark. During the next two weeks record levels were reached along the Mississippi between Saint Paul and Hannibal MO. Flooding caused more than 100 million dollars damage, but timely warnings kept the death toll down to just twelve persons. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Twenty-two cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the High Plains Region to the Mississippi Valley, with readings in the low 90s reported in the Southern Plains Region. Tulsa OK hit 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Heavy snow blanketed northern Arizona. Snowfall totals ranged up to 16 inches at Pinetop, with 10 inches reported at Flagstaff. Afternoon thunderstorms spawned a couple of tornadoes in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Missoula MT was blanketed with four inches of snow, and Glasgow MT reported a record cold morning low of 14 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - High winds in northern Utah, gusting to 90 mph in Weber County, blew a trampoline through a living room window, and strong winds associated with a cold front crossing the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 75 mph in the Chesapeake Bay area of Virginia. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Valentine NE was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of 10 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Top 10 crests at St. Paul: 1. 26.01 ft on 04-16-1965 2. 24.52 ft on 04-15-1969 3. 23.76 ft on 04-18-2001 4. 23.20 ft on 04-30-2001 5. 22.37 ft on 04-13-1997 6. 22.02 ft on 04-16-1952 7. 20.19 ft on 03-31-2019 8. 20.17 ft on 06-29-2024 (P) 9. 20.13 ft on 06-26-2014 10. 19.15 ft on 06-26-1993

The KW is about to emerge on the South American coast. The models are showing it developing as an east-based/East Pacific event. Then we will have to see if it stays east-based or becomes basin-wide: Research shows that +PMM El Nino’s strongly support east-based events. We have a very strong (record strong actually) +PMM this year: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” ^Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution. +PMM:

It seems like relative to every pattern ... results are + Whether it is .001 of a single degree F, or +10 Fs, +'s are sort of a baked in ( no pun intended ) consequence of being in a +d(C) where C denotes climate. But it's not just temperature? seriously...I see something subtle in the circumstances, too. Today is a perfect example. Right now, it is 69 F here... we are about to go above 70 F. Yet, looking at the satellite and WPC's surface synopsis, this appears to be a backside cyclone scenario. The strata entrails and scuddies are moving NE-SW... and there's regions of pancaking coming d-slope and evaporating as they come. Meanwhile, the main/real polar boundary is situated up in S Canada. I don't recall ever seeing cyclone mechanics closed off like this, INSIDE a warm sector. Much less... in April These are odd circumstances. These kind of idiosyncratic things... I just have an Aspergery kind of memory about weather situations since I was apparently designated by birth to waste a life with a Meteorological talent that will provide nothing for anyone ha ( I'm like the Michigan Jay Frog of weather minutia ). Anyway, I keep having to step back over this shit and go, "what in the f is happening here". Things are just behaving differently ...whether it shows up in the thermometers or not. And they're just under the radar oddities, too subtle for most to even be aware... Besides, who the fuck is complaining or getting spooked by 70 on April 17 in a "cold sector" behind a cyclone inside a warm sector ... Too nice to care. It's just unknowable to them.

Hoping we do get 3 or 4 hours below freezing Tuesday AM to kill of some of the black flies that are already buzzing around. Seems like the years that we do get a nice Mid-April freeze after the first hatchings, we then have significantly fewer black flies for the rest of the season.

You should have done pretty good last night right?

That appears to be his total up top which I pulled from the 2023 burbs thread.

Picked up .06" rainfall with a quick moving t-shower around 10:00 last evening. Places west and NW of here did better with greater than .25". We'll see how much we can add on Sunday. Heat was nice but a bit much for mid April. Looking forward to a cool down but could do without the cold mornings upcoming early next week. On the other hand will be nice to sleep with the windows cracked open again.

Not a drop of rain for me last night

Well this was quite the surprise to see https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

They were legit thunderstorms. Was turkey hunting when they went by decent amount of thunder and lightning

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

6z Euro AI goes wild April 27th

Mmm... slow down there,

That would be a giant FU

We'll see how the cuttoff trough establishes