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Devastating

well that changes my whole understanding.

Not sure anyone posted but CMC was a little south and a touch colder. FV3 gets precip in earlier (the finger) and because of that it starts as light snow for most of NC. Looks a hair colder that other modeling west of here too

Yeah but NWS counts sleet accumulation as snow accumulation.

Sleet is counted as “snow”

Sorry if I repeated you, I must have missed that comment somehow. 13 UTC NBM run did juice things up quite a bit. Mean is up to 12.5" now. Definitely a consistent trend the last couple days to keep increasing totals despite the one run from overnight (1 UTC) where things went back slightly. I'm kind of hoping that settles because eventually, as you see from some of the individual runs, we start inching into "mix" territory, and we know that warm tongue is often underestimated by the models. The chances of non-snow precip increased a lot (relative, 4% to 10%), as well. To see where things could go wrong, you might compare these two shots at 66 hours. Here we see the 12Z GFS with three distinct pieces of energy at 5H. Northern vort over Montana, secondary in Utah, and primary southern vort over Mexico. Hasn't quite phased yet. This is the 12Z NAM at the same time. We can see the distinct pieces of energy are interacting, instead. Southern energy is pulling north and west as a natural condition of the phase with the northern energies. We want the phase just not too early. The 12Z Euro hedges slightly in between these two, but as far as I can tell, neither the 700 nor 850 temps get above freezing as modeled there. Silver lining is the long-range NAM isn't all that good, but it is remains a possibility. Not quite in the "comfortable" range yet.

and Morristown, right? Right?!?

The map is titled "Snow Accumulation" however.

Who let Ji onto LWX’s snow map making computer lol. Ya right if he was on there the map would be maxed out.

That looks historically accurate. more N&W than DC and burbs.

And I mean this storm is coming on the exact 26th anniversary of the greatest game of catch-up in history…Jan 25, 2000

I can see the Mount Pocono, Allentown and Sussex numbers verifying. Not so sure about the other ones.

Woof!!

Almost certainly. Sleet counts as accumulation.

If you told me a week ago we'd get 8 inches in DC, I'd be happy. So I'm happy.

NWS prepared the briefing as EURO was coming out and basically said that… Said trending for more ice. Gives Chattanooga 49% chance of >.25 of ice would not be surprised if it’s more especially in mountains. .

When/if the changeover occurs, it will compact down for sure especially if it occurs during the heavier precip instead of waiting for a more “dry slot” snizzle/sleet scenario

Hit 49 now back to 48. Legit temp decline starts in 2hrs

I like it better when they play catch-up…

17.5" on the 1.45" qpf from NBM IS 12:1 Ratio If we hit 15:1 it's 22" To make top 10 we have to break 15" 7 is 17.5" 5 is 20" 3 is 22.2 (blizzard of 96) Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

They may be going with a blend of the Euro and GFS. Which isn't entirely unreasonable, just not something we would run with ourselves.

thats ballsy. But I like it. They have to be factoring in some of the slightly colder solutions

Right, good point. Mainly, I was just surprised how cold it was at H85 that far southwest…which I didn’t expect to see. My hope is that strange things could happen with a gradient like that.

In the pro's we trust!

Does anyone want to hear the 12z Euro is trying to snow on the gulf and Florida beaches again at day 9? It's going to nail this at day 9, isn't it? lol