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Skynet hopefully is right. Solid advisory event for most of sne.

Meaning PF will be making snow angels in 2' of sn out on the picnic tables

Both 6z euro op and euro ai were decent at 6z. Euro needs to hold serve because seeing hires models outside of Reggie kind of meh makes me nervous.

the banding sets up basically perfectly for DC/Balt

Yeah, Lock this one up for me.

12z euro backed down a little from the 06z “zonked” run…no surprise. Still a decent event for far Se areas.

At last! Improvement across an entire suite 40 hours out...maybe this one has a better chance

THE EURO!!

Pain.

Did the robot or OP come in hot at 6z?

I'm going to open my business back up. I'm offering super good deals on deck restorations and house washes!

This basically shows the AR getting shifted from the NW into Cali,is this NINA or NINO...LOL

EURO a little futher southwest with the best stuff. Gonna be a nice DC-Annapolis run

Euro is a hold. Better for DC.

Looking at lots of 50s and 60s for highs the back half of December if the Esembles are correct. And possible a few days in the 70s ahead of cold fronts

where the genuine hell are we finding these models

Plus the gradients have been getting pushed further north that we used to get in the old days. I was pointing this out last February with the model snowfall forecasts from early in the month which were way overdone around our area. The best snows wound up closer to Toronto and across the Interior Northeast.

They seem to have me at around 5" right now where I'm at. I'm pretty much on the Allegheny/Washington County border. I'm a stones throw from a WSW. Lol I'd be good with that if that verifies. Would be a little more for me than last week. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

Here was latest extended run of the HRRR (12z) this morning The biggest thing to resolve in C-PA with this system is the extent of the snow shadow east of the Alleghenies. Pretty much all modelling shows this now to varying degrees basically in between the I-99/US220 corridor and the I-81 corridor. Models like the GFS or the 3k NAM don’t even give much snow to a large portions of the Sus Valley. The wave itself is fast moving and very weak with not a lot of moisture to work with. The mean flow in the low levels remains westerly, which is why you see such a pronounced downsloping shadow off the Alleghenies on modelling. So unfortunately I expect this feature to show up with likely a corridor of T-1” snows in the ridge and valley. How fast that precip shield reenhances as the weak system reaches to the coast will dictate how much of the Sus Valley can reach at least a low end advisory type snowfall. I think York/Lancaster probably does okay, not sure about the Harrisburg area (right now I’m thinking about an inch maybe two in that area). Obviously western PA doesn’t have to worry about the downsloping component and that coupled with this being plenty cold with pretty high ratios it should be a pretty nice event over there. Given the aforementioned low level westerly flow, that will act as an upslope component on the western leading ridges of the Laurels, which is why you see those higher warning totals show up there.

12z euro AI very close to 6z.

Beautiful. I’m gonna enjoy this one, until the next model shows zip for mby.

The 12z Frog Model looks good for the cities....just gotta hope for high ratios (0.5 inches of snow per millimeter)

Yep the solution really hasnt changed much. A few wobbles north and south but overall it hasn't really changed.

While we all wait for the 12z GEOS-5 model to run, here's the 00z GEOS-5 run for comparison.