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Gotta say...the bots have been quite impressive with pattern recognition and just an overall better idea of the general idea of the larger-scale storm details (development, track). Certainly enough I think to give a big boost in confidence for medium-range forecasting. Not entirely sure about the inside 48-hours or storm specific details but they've been a big boost in the medium-range for sure.

the epac is warmer than the wpac. that's outrageous

unfortunately

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Friday but this weekend we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Monday. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Friday but this weekend we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Monday. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

I feel like the robots are winning this. Another test is that big typhoon out in the west pac. Seems like bots are winning, but bots sort of moved towards the physical models with that.

.. there's historic data that suggests warm ENSO autumns frame cyclonic tendency in that region along and off the middle Atlantic. This year really hitting that with panache. There really wasn't much of an input in terms of arriving S/W mechanics into that region leading into that thing. There was only weak sauce arrival prior to the one at the end of September, either ... that made major media outlets millions on pimped out headlines... My hypothesis is that it is the CAG climo repositioning up and off the eastern seaboard - 'CAG' referring to the Caribbean Gyre... It's a general region of cyclonic tendencies that formulates in late summers and throughout autumns, situated as the naming suggests... around the Caribbean - although it's really typically over the western limb of that geographical region. Anyway, this is a source of 'home grown' TCs in the October climatology for west Atlantic Basin activity. Fronts or frontal echoes decaying through the Gulf can also formulate 'book end' spins but ... overlapping general vorticity potential in the area is an overall cultural jelly. The CAG is there because of overall large scale Coriolis balancing underneath autumn high pressure settling through the TX. My hunch is that the large hemispheric circulation mode/manifold favors this more off the EC than down there in typology. We have a high pressure seemingly eternally lodged and incapable of settling S of us - see current sfc analysis' - which has been there for days. When it breaks down... no worries. Another dying cool boundary wafts silently trough, and reinvigorates the high pressure all over again... and this is causing a standard weakness over/off the M/A just like the CAG machinery. interesting...

It won’t be your standard super Nino though…lots more in play…there will be surprises.

But the takeaway, are the bots getting it right more often? Or no?

Screaming PAC jet. Nino here

Maybe we are moving in the direction of making some small improvements on that front if the claims about this new AI corrected version of the EPS weeklies turn out to be correct.

But since I’m a man that’s honest, euro AI failed with the rain over us too back a few days ago.

Man euro AI just wiped its ass with the euro op this weekend. Euro op had this cold shot coming in while euro AI laughed at it. Robots won.

I mentioned in the enso thread on the main forum, but honestly, pretty much everyone in the north and east is expecting a subpar winter relative to their climo. So the expectations are set. However, there are a few trolls in that thread that say absolutely ridiculous things that are completely unrealistic wrt weather, and these things will be hilarious when people bump them in the spring. People need to kinda chill on these insane assumptions because its such a strong Nino, especially with some things not behaving as expected. Do I expect a milder and less snowy than avg winter? Yes. But thats as far as ill go.

Frost again on elevated surfaces. 4 nights in a row.

Webber cancelling baby. https://x.com/webberweather/status/2112886732030886077?s=46

Not a big ran of Pivotal Weather website redesign.

Yesterday, the ECMWF announced, "A finer 0.1° resolution is now published alongside the existing 0.25°, for the IFS streams (the AIFS streams remain 0.25° only). It is produced from the same high-resolution (~9 km) forecast." So, how did the new higher-resolution map perform with regard to this morning's low temperatures in the NYC area? The 10/21 0z run did quite well with one exception. Preliminary Lows: October 21, 2026: Bridgeport: 49° Islip: 50° New York City: 50° Newark: 48° White Plains: 41° (off by 4°)

You never know about the holidays! 60 years ago in 1966, Augusta had a high of 31 and low of 18 with 6 inches of snow. 61 years ago in 1965, we had a high of 62 and low of 46.

The is peak fall weather, but damn is it boring.

6-7

let's get greedy and go for no single digits

Still little hope in the long range. Google deep mind keeps us bone dry over the next two weeks