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Bro I just don't want to be 65 and party sunny on Christmas Day.

@CoastalWx might float into the Atlantic

This is your bump north

12z NAM

ice storm climo in n america def has some weird favored corridors, i could see one shifting and being potentially problematic that said, i the lake definitely offers a good deal of protection given the typical low level winds in ice set ups usually have an easterly component, with the exception being extreme deep cold antecedent airmasses but i'm selling those this winter for sure

Maybe the Walker circulation is finally beginning to weaken. The strengthening in recent decades went against model forecasts. Probably due to an incomplete understanding of how it works. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105332 The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50156-9 Our finding of a reversal in ENSO evolution from an initial increase to a subdued or collapsed amplitude toward 2300 highlights a strong nonlinear response of ENSO to persistent greenhouse warming. Under transient greenhouse warming, the fast warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though initially contributing to an increase in ENSO variability, sows the seeds of a subsequent ENSO decrease by reducing the potential intensity and shrinking the climatological non-convective area of the equatorial Pacific. Establishing atmospheric convection in the reduced non-convective area induces small convective and wind anomalies that feed into the Bjerknes feedback. The associated curtailing effect eventually leads to the ENSO reduction. Although ENSO from a reduction to an eventual collapse is seen in some models, the likelihood in other models requires experiments integrated beyond the 23rd century, but such an evolution represents no good news, because it means that the oscillatory nature of ENSO impacts would be replaced by a quasi-permanent condition that is similar to an El Niño in many respects, therefore with a cumulative impact on affected regions.

Strange to have a Friday game to kick off the season, but I’ll take it. Spurs fan here…can’t be any worse than last year!

The hurdle is getting to 1 under .500... The Orioles have not been 1 game under .500 since they were 15-16

As for lawns, I’ve got a huge bare spot in my backyard where we’ve had a 14’ diameter trampoline since Christmas. Trying to figure out if I want to try to fix it with seeding or go the sod route. The rest of the back lawn is a bit of a mess, so I’ll be aerating, laying down topsoil in spots, and overseeding to try to tidy it up.

Have done some reading about this, and it seems that they like trees of heaven, which smell like shit and apparently make the lanternflies taste like shit. If an area doesn’t have too many of those trees, then the bugs are more readily predated upon. Sounds plausible to this non-entomologist.

Models consistently nail us later today. Watch for spin ups with warm front nearby

https://x.com/WeatherCast3/status/2089934351911858402

It shows up here - https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/ Well, the discussion does

Betting new climo will be ice storms. Lots of ice storms farther north than typical.

The wind shear across the MDR is pretty nuts and probably isn't decreasing anytime soon. Would probably need to see some wave survive to around Cuba or Puerto Rico before it even has the chance of becoming organized.

SPC quite late with their 9AM D1 outlook update, wondering if they've been waiting on some additional model data?

It jumped south overnight , now jumping back north run by run . Looking at radar I bet we get a period of heavy rain into southern CT.

lock it.

I have resigned myself to this winter being an interesting vibration for sure. I don't care if it's 70 for Christmas... just please don't let us transition to that straight out of the only wintry period that really delivers of the entire season. No issues if it stays 65 the entire winter, just not the bait and switch. Watch, this year we're gonna get 30" on the 22nd and it'll vanish in two days...

Hopefully that inevitable stretch in Sept doesn’t feature the same dewpoints. I think this most recent stretch of mid to upper 90s has felt much worse than our hottest timeframe around the 4th. It was over 100 then, but at least the humidity wasn’t as high.

5% TOR for extreme SE PA/S NJ/DE. Meso models this morning really liking this area for both strong storms and flash flooding. 06z 3K NAM and 12z HRRR are both nasty later on. NAM with a supercell threat while the HRRR is showing a huge QLCS for this evening. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2026082006/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2026082012/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_12.png