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You mean absolutely nailed the pattern and the last 4 storms that kind of wild.

I know it was just a coating/dusting this morning, but what a disaster on the roads on my drive to work. State highway in Gardner iced up, as was Rte 2

I know they like to use them and the NBM, So if those are right, Yes.

Temp hit 7.0 around 7:30 am yesterday morning, tied the record low for the day with 1989. Currently 19.4/14.4 at 8 am here with a partly cloudy sky (high cirrus). Even if NWS is off 8 degrees like yesterday, the 55 high forecasted will be mid/upper 40's, should see some melting.

I thought there would be more SWFE’s this year.

If we get any snow this weekend even 1/2” he needs to voluntarily delete his account.

Think they’re right? Id love s snow day.

And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back. Will it be right? Probably not, but Indont know that enough to make declarative statement la bout what I’m tracking. Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it.

I may be having radar hallucinations, but does it seem like RGEM is doing much better than the others at this point?

If I get enough time, I’ll analyze the Baltimore daily temperatures for some of the MJO phases in (post) La Niña years in March as a followup to my 20 Feb MJO La Niña MJO phase analysis. If I do, I might start with 8. I’d look at the same 20.

Until Sunday/Sunday night

I looked at a webcam from Truckee the other day and no hint of snow. Not even left over piles from a previous storm- which means there really haven't been any lately.

I will say we had pretty much the various type of winter events from squalls, to inv troughs, to clippers, to SWFE. We just have not had a legit coastal.

80 days to go!!!

There’s actually a little MU CAPE pushing into NYC area this evening. I think that’s one factor boosting the precip in an otherwise mundane setup for SNE.

Is there a 200% button?

1 pm average 8 - 15 mph

Too far north for suppressed systems, too far south for coastal huggers, too far east for lake effect snow. I'm not sure what we're too far west for, but I'm sure it's something.

Good to see the Sierras getting snow. They need it. Hopefully the Rockies can cash in before the end of winter snow season too.

I did a little comparison on all the models this morning. All the models have that bowing ball in a similar location day 3, but there’s a second shortwave that dives underneath it. Camp GFS, GFS Ai, Euro Ai have the bowing ball not reacting to that shortwave and it just meanders over SE Canada and blocks any attempt at our storm to come up the coast. Camp euro, cmc, Ukie phase that shortwave with the bowling ball and kick it east into our 50/50 location This interaction plays a big role on whether our storm can come up the coast or not. There’s other factors, but this is key imo

For you? Nah. 1-2”…maybe a lucky 3”

It does look like another one of these events where it is going to snow Sunday/Monday but probably not a big one and one models won’t ramp up until Thursday / Friday

Everyone is dropping their pants to this winter, but if you take the snow goggles off, it’s surprising we only had one good storm and that took a gulf low ramming into an arctic dome. Think about that for a second.

Perfect phase, strong LP, and a perfect track. That has to be the outcome! The temps are just above freezing where it has the heaviest snow. Heavy precip dynamic cooling deal. Clearly the best chance for snow in this pattern is NW with elevation.. if the storm makes it there. Pretty crazy run-to-run variations- busy NS, so its difficult to resolve wave timing and degree of interactions.

GYX map looks like the 00z/10 HREF map.