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That long range thread is always….

I didn’t pick up on this earlier and don’t know if anyone else posted this. Today’s GEFS has phase 8 starting on Dec 8th, which is about 5 days earlier than any other run:

18z Euro a little further north again. Totals around N. IN and SW. MI includes the lake effect from Thursday.

The 12z GFS, Euro & Canadian each brought some type of Winter weather chance between the 2nd & the 5th. Hopefully we are tracking a specific winter chance while we enjoy the holiday weekend.

Wednesday looks awfully windy. Gusts up to 50 mph across much of the sub.

Don't forget Lucy...

That happens I am flyin back to DCA just to see that once in a million year hyper blizzard!

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1___________+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8 ___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5 Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included). DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date.

Yeah let’s get the Mohawk back in the avatar and pretend it’s the late 2000s Decembers when SWFEs were a dime a dozen.

Not the best harbinger for winter weenies https://www.wmur.com/article/rare-bird-sighting-portsmouth-nh-11232025/69522743 “The species typically breeds in Europe and winters in tropical Africa. This is the first recorded sighting in New Hampshire.”

Bring the Mohawk back. Days of yore.

BWI: 8.5" DCA: 6.2" IAD: 9.9” RIC: 4.7” ----- SBY: 12.4”

What can Vocanic Winter share about possible Hawaiian volcanos and Mount Rainier tremblings?

Very Glad you’re on the mend pal!

Today's weather is what I want for more than one day in a row. Looks like Wednesday is the last day of nice temps before the Nina cold/dry returns. Hoping the end of the week is at least sunny.

1st day of the season for me today at Killington. Snow was pretty darn good quality for November. Some nice soft bumps on Snowden. 13K vertical to get those ski legs going!! .

Hey, we don’t judge.

It’s been a rough few years personally but I’m on the mend and feeling a lot better. Hate the cold now but will track for the love of the chase.

Reality will be nothing like that map, so no need to fret.

We knew

Just call it “leg” or “lower body” and be done with it

The daily snowfall record is potentially misleading (I didn't look to find examples). For Central Park daily snowfall covers 12:00 am to 11:59 pm. There could conceivably be a snowfall approaching 8" that spans both sides of midnight without either day reaching 4". I am sure similar events have happened, although I do not know if it happened within the streak periods.

As per the usual, the GFS and ECMWF runs now have some varied solutions as to when and if the snow will come into Colorado.

I think that's because there's a -EPO a few days before. It takes the US pattern a few days to change after the Pacific changes, but that pattern is going warm. I guess the N. Pacific ridge heading a little polar could keep it cool enough near the Great Lakes. The longer that storm takes to get here, the more likely it is for rain. We want it early while there's still a -EPO in place pushing down a strong High pressure.