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I believe that these equations of ocean to atmosphere heat transfer are what’s taught at meteorology courses. I’m sure there’s a way to do this.

NAM and Euro basically dry should put up a lot of caution flags

I’ll tell you what, let’s see how the new MPAS RRFS does. Tries to develop +RA here on warm front tomorrow.

When did you leave Burlington? I had no idea

A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. Parts of the region could experience flooding. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the lower 80s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -28.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

how many g damn times

it's a Stein summer here, that is objectively true by all measure(s).

Deepmind really wanting to pick up the second wave into the SW Atlantic. Some IFS/AIFS-Ens. members also agree with this.

Today's Highs: PHL: 90 EWR: 89 ACY: 89 BLM: 88 New Brnswck: 88 LGA: 88 TEB: 87 TTN: 86 NYC: 85 ISP: 84 JFK: 84

I know. The stuff tomorow will rob it. This is for tomorrow night into Friday.

Os offense is back to sucking against the Yankees. Sucks they blew Mondays game but oh well. Probably not consistent enough to make the playoffs anyway.

@dendrite, @stormtracker ! Fuck @Wow, he’s beyond useless!

Hurricane Lala at 0045z and 0605z from Aug 19 (that is, 0045z from almost 24 hours ago)

I get the dew and heat trolls, as well as the cold and snowy trolls, as well as the drought vs floods. But, for the love of what ever you believe in, can we just have a thread on reality?? PLEASE!!

Here is an example of the three-body scatter spike, essentially a form of bad radar data. The radar bounces off the large hail, and possibly back to the ground, back to the hail, and back to the radar. The DBZ values are up above 70 for a couple of pixels

I just need 2 more days of no rain, then I don’t give a shit! Hope you’re right on this!!!!

This is interesting. Meteorology is essentially the study of heat transfer. Winds increase in the winter, in large part, because the temperature difference increases between the mid and upper latitudes. We all know that. So, if we have 3.4 averaging 80 and NPac 52 (just for the sake of argument), what would the heat transfer difference cause the jet stream to do if the NPac was 45? In some ways that 7 degrees equals more stored heat than we could ever imagine, decreasing winds. But in the grand scheme of things, is it a proverbial drop in the bucket? Winters suck here because we're almost always close enough to be in the game yet we rarely score a goal. That's numbingly frustrating to us weather fans (in no small part why @dailylurker and I rented a damn house at the apex of the Tug). But I digress...you said (and I am an admirer of you) that you don't think the STJ would be materially impacted due to the increased temperature of the 'blob'. So, I'd love to figure out a way to calculate at what delta would the reduction in the temperature contrast between ocean latitudes cause the STJ to peter out, nullifying the best part of El Nino......and are we close?

Boundary temps. Cold above… rain. Cold below….ice. Fucking hate freezing rain!!!

I can deal with the weekend, as shitty as it’s going to be. I just need 2 more days of harvest!! Running around like a chicken with its head cut off trying to keep up with breakdowns. Got silage yet, but that’s weeks away.

I'm moving to West Townsend, that is my concern too Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

So many bad teams. The final WC spot in the AL will probably go to a team 5 games under 500, or worse. But this is good for baseball! If they want to be like the NBA. Remember when playing a 162 game season actually meant something? They should cut it back to 100, and even that's too long when so many teams get in anyway. NFL is king and always will be. Just give us an 18 game season please? Playing an odd number of games is fucked up.

Deep layer shear is good tomorrow, and there an solid 250 mb jet involved, unlike last time, so better dynamically. HRRR really makes the CAPE stand out over the entire bay. PWATs come up nicely during the day, so do sfc dew points.