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I'd take a continuous series of light to moderate events that don't erode a block, vs one "big dog" storm that melts off in 4 days. Snow-on-snow is the best!

I was just trying to give Scooter something with his gravy.

It’s great when it’s snowing . Really helps the holiday vibes heading into a snowy holiday night . Well that was when it used to snow

You're a lost soul to the realm you were meant to be born into. Utqiagvik calls to you. The sun just set at that location and won't rise again until January 22nd.

PNA forecast staying closer to neutral now & not as deeply negative & trends positive in later: And, PNA for the most part keeps verifying above forecasts: FWIW

Only if we go full December 2020. Non-stop shotgun blasts.

I think what I said is very true… models catching on to SSW and the changes that may cause will take some more time.

Winter rarely just blasts into the MA early season. It's a carving process and we're usually 3rd on the list when it happens (MW first, NE second, etc). First week of Dec looks like a carving process to me. This is an interesting jet panel. If you animate d10-15 it's pretty clear that the eps wants to press (or carve) the northern jet down into our latitudes. Still not good enough here but the process is ongoing Overall it's an encouraging jet structure with split flow and convergence. Mean QPF panels show moist SW flow embedded in this. If this verifies, areas to our west and NE will be in the crosshairs for overrunning type snowfall. If the carve continues southward it would be our first real window of opportunity beyond d15. Patterns like this can be active with precip but not really a big storm pattern. Which is probably good. It's really really hard early season to get a wound up storm to track underneath of us or be cold enough for snow. Much higher odds with a weaker shortwave zipping along

Barrow for you my friend

That's really cool. Nerd alert: just this week I was on WGAL's YouTube page waxing sentimental while watching Joe's (and @AllWeather) videos from before and during the great January 2016 snowstorm. I love going back and reliving moments like that. There are videos on the page from about 3 days prior to the storm all the way through the event finale. Best part is watching the forecasted amounts go up and up as the event approached and played out. I do this probably once every few months. Truly.

Instead you have 6 months of sweat. Enjoy!

Slightly more stronger going into 8 than yesterday

I want 6 months of darkness

No...no, I wouldn't; I got 2.5" and then a flip to rain. It was actually a rather traumatic event.

Yes, although now its a bit more difficult since last summer our dog had a severe spinal stroke which has left very little mobility/control of his back legs so his playing days are over. But the hope from the neurologist was over time he would get back to 100% but it never happened. We did a third and final MRI back at the end of the summer and it revealed the part of his spine that had the stroke (it was his second one) is slowly being replaced by fluid, so we went the wheel chair route and he loves it...can go on walks again! But being able to go on walks again is phenomenal.

Definitely a colder complexion returned to the guidance overnight. There were some odd solutions there for a couple cycles when considering the principle component/indexes. Likely it was just typical pattern change guidance games all along. We see this going the other way in April where the indexes suggest the season's first big warm up ... but then the GFS wanders off in a spontaneous pita-flop day dream in the other direction. So in this situation .. I'm wondering if we might end up in a split flow type during those first couple of weeks of Dec. There's likely to verify that large scale -WPO/-EPO changing of the guard over the Pacific, but there's been some persistence in the various ensemble clusters to pin the geopotential anomalies along 120 W. Typically that results in flow bifurcation over the Pac NW, with the N resulting stream being a cold loader flow spanning across Canada, while the S branch meanders through the S Rockies... This can be good for overrunning storm types. If the blocking features lose latitude if/where they set up ...that may trigger more +PNA response underneath than we are presently seeing - whole different ball game. But the idea here is a seasonal dump ( we'll see if all this results in more as the times near) of polar-arctic cold at least down to 40 N across the Continent. As far as particularly dailies and what storms form, if/where those do or not... etc etc... too vague for the time being to make much of any play call.

UPDATE: 3.95" is the official final total per FWD...

Baja Low has screwed us over many times in recent Years. Hard to dislodge the Pattern when a standing powerful SER has developed in response. Maybe the MJO will dislodge it if it gets to cold Phases at enough Amp. A Block upstream would help particularly with a 50-50 in place. Without it you risk the SER, -NAO hookup.

It's actually a little bit interesting, the way things are unfolding for the PV. Having previously seen the wave 1 tropospheric precursor pattern (displacement). In the weeks prior. Followed by the displacement event we've all been monitoring in the stratosphere now. Now, looking at some ensemble runs moving forward. We're resembling something pretty close to the wave 2 precursor (split). Which, if we take into consideration what looks to be a meaningful phase 7 mjo transit upcoming (known for PV disruption). Plus the associated WWB mentioned out at the dateline. That should act to give another boost to the AAM. If I'm recalling correctly, split events are typically achieved with a wave 1 attack (preconditioning) followed up by wave 2. Added all up raises an eyebrow a little bit. I'll just add, "setbacks" (or vice versa) from a European perspective doesn't necessarily equal the same to someone in the US for anyone reading.

Having a dog helps tremendously. Forces you to stay active and get out regardless of the sun cycle

Hmmm, Uncertainty… you don’t say

Realistically if you look at statistics and probability, we should break our drought of not having winter storm warning criteria this winter. We have had 1 WSW system (3 or 4 inches of snow or more) since January 2019 for most of our area and that was Jan 2022. The cold being delayed is common and we have all seen this song and dance many times in December. Sometimes it comes later in the month, sometimes in January and sometimes only marginally. We really need the SSW to work in our favor and displace the cold on this side of the northern hemisphere and we need blocking. The Pacific will rarely help us this winter IMO. We need a strong-NAO.

Snow makes the early sunsets much more tolerable for sure. There is nothing like it being dark out at 4:30 with heavy snow falling and just the quietness outside with nobody driving. One thing that doesn't bother me either is the stars. Last night I was outside with the dog at like 6:15 and the sky was perfectly clear with plenty of stars overhead and the stars were bright and vibrant. I also did get a little sad though thinking back to the summer when it was 6:15 and just sitting outside drinking a beer. I think the key though with early sunsets and the seasonal depression stuff is just trying to stay busy...which is hard when you're cooped up inside because there isn't much to do outside. Early sunsets never really used to bother me until maybe the last 4-5 years and I've thought why that is...figured maybe just getting older but then it dawned on me. I used to be very active doing stuff...had season tickets to the Wolf Pack and would go to road games that they would play locally sometimes there could be like 3 games a week. Plus school kept me busy...then I finished school, and it was just work and being lazy. But being back in school + work...don't have time to notice it being dark

EPS agrees.

I enjoy the early sunsets, gives that holiday season vibe, the darkness driving to work at 5am sucks though, the sun helps wake me up.