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Same thinking , as long as the goods aren’t 5 miles north of our backyard we will survive another tease.

Definitely going to be on the edge as far as temps are concerned but that is tantalizingly close to an isothermal paster here

Man, I hope you're right. What's crazy is you've got a good chance pull a 20" month (at least)...in November. Awesome start to the season.

You can’t throw that far enough

Still think you need to be ORH to SNH for the goods.

Already gave my call but I think we are going to be in the sweet spot back to back storms. 11.2 inches for MBY is my final final call. Enjoy the storm!

Nice work. Caveat on the COOP "accuracy" for sure. Some sketchy measurements in past years. Regardless, this is definitely a November for the books around here, assuming this storm acts as expected. With that said, gonna narrow my range a bit and go 6-8" final call for here. General consensus QPF numbers in the 0.60-0.80" range, ratios pretty close to 10:1, etc etc. Going to be a fun day to work tomorrow.

Almost looks like a blue bomb for the 84 corridor and with temps this borderline I think elevation would help. 925 and 850 hover around 0 the whole time. I expect this to verify about 50 miles north of the 0c line depicted here however. what a juicy run of the euro widespread 1.5-2.5” qpf

That run was pretty amped as far as SLP goes, Track still a bit to the east once you get up into NNE, Waiting on weather models for the EPS members.

Torches to the pike at 925. Let’s amp it more.

Fall line event makes sense for climo in early season

Assuming the overnight runs were bad with no activity lol

H92 a bit warm until you get into NW CT.

Not the best for CT with those temps.

Gfs is all over the place and tossed. AI is tossed too. This will be a ORH to SNH deal on northeast. For best amounts anyways.

I’d hit that

GEFS not that inspiring.

Here’s the 06z OP run,

Lots of meh members on the gefs

100% correct. Possible, but the 12-2 system has the deck stacked against it. No 50-50 low, no Lakes to New England H.P. as a cold air source. And of course, our long time drought pattern that no one fully understands is again an aggravating factor. The GFS dropped the QPF from 1.48" for Augusta at 06 11-27 to .60" at 06 11-28. I don't have enough fingers to count how many times this has happened during the past 4 months.

Looks like the last 4 seasons continue. At least days get longer in a few weeks.

Are you able to post any pics, Jeff or is that forbidden?

This set-up would probably work in January with a colder antecedent air mass. Track isn't bad. Fast flow doesn't allow low to amp up and move inland.