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Gefs also bumped NW

Gefs came northwest

I plan on traveling into Manhattan on Sunday. I'm not altering my plans until something other than GooFuS is on board.

Thumbs up in his green fluorescent DPW jacket.

That GFS run last night is likely the biggest, wildest run we will ever see for this area.

Actually more like a lower end warning event verbatim. It actually was not THAT different vs 12z in terms of dynamics leading in.

Good to distinguish for people.

Cursed

6-12 en route for Brett who will post a picture of him snow blowing with the cub cadet.

This is going to be the first piece of energy coming down that reinforces the cold air on Saturday into Sunday. The energy in discussion is still towards the West diving down behind this first piece.

Getting a few flakes mixing in with rain. I can't see the top of Buck Mountain (5K) right across Soco Rd from me. Big Bald just above Cataloochee is covered now with Moderate snow. 39 now at the house.

there is that La nina hole again which means we are still in the same pattern of cold/dry warm wet

Yeah really. I remember some Winters where south of us wound up with more.

With the temp issues in ETn but not so much in west or east of here, makes me think the mods are about to sniff out a handoff or energy transfer. Seems like when we get odd looking thermals up the valley, it’s a precursor to a low popping off the coast of SC. .

That is a potential horror movie waiting to be written.

is it suppose to be 67 degrees on January 27th?

As per a typical thing we need to avoid, sloppy phasing is at the top of the list. Need 0z to be cleaner like 12z was. Wouldn’t mind the 18z euro bridging the gap with something in the right direction, though it’s 6&18 runs never seem to

Latest Cfs2 forecast for February. I bet it gets wetter in future runs.

A reason I think you'll have a better chance with this thread, Ray ...is the error trends as of late considering all guidance. If that correction recurs, we're in business on this one. This event tomorrow into Friday morning, upstate NY up the ST L S was actually the original system that even the Euro was impressive for several ( not a couple ) cycles about 4 or so days ago... The Euro did not really do terribly better than the GFS - I don't know if folks are aware that the system in U NY is in fact the 15/16 cyclone space. Anyway, all these guidance were not wrong about the storm 'existing' - as we discussed earlier. The recognition of the pattern amplitude by many of us was actually spot on. Where the system takes place is the devil in this case, but ... it was actually en masse a reposition to the current strike region as outline above. It seems that's been a leitmotif this season from my recall where systems have been correcting west. While certainly true that we must consider every situation uniquely, there's certainly also wisdom in noticing whether the circumstances have changed appreciably so - if not... it's reasonable to assume that this Euro track will correct west in time. Having said all that ... we still are dealing with wave harmonics issues in lacking. The neg interference in the general circulation circumstance is only allowing narrow windows for amplitude at the cyclone/S/W scales. But as this one today up N of ALB is showing, they're still occurring nonetheless. We have a shot in this case...

lol we are a special group

Major bust in SE MI today. We had a 50% chance of snow, finally updated to a winter weather advisory late afternoon. Will probably end up with 3-5" in the metro area. Models did terrible with this.

thanks friend!

We’ll grab some paste prior to possible powder

lol your joking right. What always happens on the crossroads runs?

Pffft you wouldn’t dare