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Cutoff lows with training convection are a pretty good signal for more flash flooding. Parts of the area are already 10.00+ for July. So the wettest month here in over a year If this keeps up next few months, then it could be a sign of the longer term drought since September 2024 is beginning to relax. Will see more gradual improvement when the shorter term drought monitor and soil moisture updates this week. Last week the CT Shoreline experienced extreme rainfall rates. Many spots recorded more than 3.00 inches in one hour and 1.00 inch + in only 15 minutes. This lead to the rapid runoff carving out 5 foot channels through the beach. Locals have never seen this before in the area. Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.98 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 11.66 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 11.60 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.42 CT DANBURY COOP 10.70 NY PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.59 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.35 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.20 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.11

I will be chasing this tomorrow.

Severe outbreak in late July?

Rare for late July level 3 risk tomorrow

Finished up updating datasets, I have charting for different sections of the US. Since we ended the 25/26 snow season, I'm posting the snow season charts for the 7 sections of the US plus the US as a whole. Only have data back 1806 for the western half of the country, so the US chart starts there, also.

Ah, the power of a decimal point

Most folks don’t need it . Certainly not 4 straight days of it which many will get especially EMA up into Maine

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (2005) NYC: 98 (1963) LGA: 100 (2005) JFK: 97 (1963) Lows: EWR: 57 (1977) NYC: 55 (1920) LGA: 59 (1962) JFK: 59 (2001) Historical: 1819: A hurricane affected the coast from Louisiana to Alabama. New Orleans was on the fringe of the storm and suffered no severe damage. Ships at the Balize experienced a strong gale for 24 hours that only grounded three ships. Lakes Pontchartrain and Borgne rose five to six feet during the storm, with farms along the lakes flooded by the storm tide. Forty-one lives were lost on the U.S. Man of War schooner Firebrand, a 150-ton gunship, while it lay off the west end of Cat Island. At 15 least 43 people died in all. 1926 - A hurricane came inland near Daytona Beach, FL. The hurricane caused 2.5 million dollars damage in eastern Florida, including the Jacksonville area. (David Ludlum) 1926: A destructive Category 4 hurricane struck Nassau during the evening hours on the 25th. The hurricane passed just east of Cape Canaveral early on the 28th and made landfall near present-day Edgewater, Florida. 1930: High minimum temperature was 81° and the maximum of 99° gave a daily mean of 90° in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1939 - The temperature at Lewiston, ID, hit 117 degrees to establish an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1943 - On a whim, and flying a single engine AT-6, Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair and Colonel Duckworth were the first to fly into a hurricane. It started regular Air Force flights into hurricanes. (The Weather Channel) 1943: A "surprise," Category 2 Hurricane moved ashore near Galveston, Texas. Due to World War II, all news underwent censorship, including any weather reports making this the surprise storm. The hurricane killed 19 people and caused millions of dollars in damages. Of particular note, Lieutenant Colonel Joe Duckworth and Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair flew an AT-6 Texan into the eye of the hurricane, becoming the first flight into the eye of the storm. 1987 - Thunderstorms in Minnesota spawned a tornado which moved in a southwesterly direction for a distance of thirty miles across Rice County and Goodhue County. Trees were uprooted and tossed about like toys, and a horse lifted by the tornado was observed sailing horizontally through the air. Thunderstorms drenched La Crosse, WI, with 5.26 inches of rain, their second highest 24 hour total of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hot weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Williston, ND, reported a record high of 108 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the eastern U.S., and in southeastern Texas. Richland County, SC, was soaked with up to 5.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ, experienced their most severe thunderstorm of record. Strong thunderstorm winds, with unofficial gusts as high as 95 mph, reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Yuma got nearly as much rain in one hour as is normally received in an entire year. The storm total of 2.55 inches of rain was a record 24 hour total for July. Property damage due to flash flooding and high winds was in the millions. (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin and northern Illinois to New England, with 103 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Thunderstorms in Wisconsin produced hail three inches in diameter near Oshkosh, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Germantown. (The National Weather Summary) 1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993: Rising water stopped all rail traffic through Kansas City, MO. Flood crests from the Missouri and Kansas Rivers pushed toward Kansas City, MO at the same time, prompting fears that the crests would arrive simultaneously, pushing water over the city's flood control levees. Fortunately, the crests arrived six hours apart, with water levels just lapping at the very tops of the levees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: Powhatan County, VA a woman received minor injuries when lightning struck her near the front door of her house. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1995: A heat wave began on this date across the southwest and continued through the 29th. Record highs included: Coachella, CA: 120 °F, Phoenix, AZ: 118 °F, San Jacinto, CA: 113 °F, Tucson, AZ: 113 °F, Riverside, CA: 112°, Banning, CA: 111 °F, Moreno Valley, CA: 111 °F, Sun City, CA: 111 °F and Yucaipa: 110 °F and Winslow, AZ: 103 °F. A male tourist from Ohio drowned in a rip current at Lake Worth Beach, FL. Strong easterly winds associated with the approach of Tropical Storm Erin caused the rip current. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: On this date 6.68 inches of rain fell at Oak Grove, AL, west of Birmingham. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: Across the western U.S. record highs included: Thermal, CA: 123°, Borrego Springs, CA: 119°, Yuma, AZ: 118°, Yakima, WA: 106°, Medford, OR: 106°, Eugene, OR: 105°, Olympia, WA: 99°, Seattle, WA: 95° and Quillayute, WA: 86°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: A severe thunderstorm produced a 100 mph wind gust 8 miles north of Hardin; MT. Several 5 to 6 foot diameter trees were blown down. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: A severe weather outbreak produced tornadoes and downburst wind damage across parts of Lower Michigan. A tornado with top winds around 80 mph touched down about one mile east of Augusta in Kalamazoo County. The tornado passed through Fort Custer in western Calhoun County, about one mile northwest of the Battle Creek airport. The damage path was approximately 800 yards wide and path length was 3 miles long. After the tornado ended, downburst damage continued for several more miles in Calhoun County. A severe thunderstorm struck a campground and mobile home park along Swan Lake in southern Allegan County. Trees were blown down onto mobile homes and small boats were blown out of the lake. Top winds with the downburst were estimated at 70 mph. Locally heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding affected parts of Ohio. Among the worst hit places were Dayton and Wilmington with 3.77 inches and 3.72 inches of rain respectively. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

What about just needing the rain ?

July 27 1910: Giant hailstones fall in Todd and Wadena Counties. One stone weighed in at 5 pounds. For Monday, July 27, 2026 1926 - A hurricane came inland near Daytona Beach, FL. The hurricane caused 2.5 million dollars damage in eastern Florida, including the Jacksonville area. (David Ludlum) 1939 - The temperature at Lewiston, ID, hit 117 degrees to establish an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1943 - On a whim, and flying a single engine AT-6, Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair and Colonel Duckworth were the first to fly into a hurricane. It started regular Air Force flights into hurricanes. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Minnesota spawned a tornado which moved in a southwesterly direction for a distance of thirty miles across Rice County and Goodhue County. Trees were uprooted and tossed about like toys, and a horse lifted by the tornado was observed sailing horizontally through the air. Thunderstorms drenched La Crosse, WI, with 5.26 inches of rain, their second highest 24 hour total of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hot weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Williston, ND, reported a record high of 108 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the eastern U.S., and in southeastern Texas. Richland County, SC, was soaked with up to 5.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ, experienced their most severe thunderstorm of record. Strong thunderstorm winds, with unofficial gusts as high as 95 mph, reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Yuma got nearly as much rain in one hour as is normally received in an entire year. The storm total of 2.55 inches of rain was a record 24 hour total for July. Property damage due to flash flooding and high winds was in the millions. (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin and northern Illinois to New England, with 103 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Thunderstorms in Wisconsin produced hail three inches in diameter near Oshkosh, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Germantown. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 27 Mon National Scotch Day 27 Mon National Creme Brûlée Day 27 Mon Barbie-in-a-Blender Day 27 Mon Cross Atlantic Communication Day 27 Mon National Chicken Finger Day 27 Mon National Korean War Veterans Armistice Day 27 Mon National Love is Kind Day 27 Mon National New Jersey Day 27 Mon National Roanoke Community Beautification Day 27 Mon Take Your Houseplant For A Walk Day 27 Mon Take Your Pants for a Walk Day 27 Mon Walk On Stilts Day 27 Mon Gary Gygax Day

77 / 66 partly cloudy. Tough pushing in and now in the sw flow with more humid air. Clouds return later today and then a 72 hour cutof trough and associated waves of moisture tallying 1.5 - 4.00 inches in most areas locally higher. From dry to deluge theme continues. Cut off low moves out by Friday and should see a nice Fr- Sat and most of Sunday before next shower/storms. Trough lifts out and piece down south ridging out west pushes heat north of us and the Atlantic ridge builds in by 8/3 with overall warmer - to hot look 8/4 - beyond, humid as well.

What in the heck is going on with the recent NOAA weekly releases for Nino 3.4? The week centered on July 22nd was only barely below +1.75 per the cyclonicwx.com OISST graph! 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.6 1.3 0.5 15JUL2026 2.8 1.6 1.4 0.4 22JUL2026 3.0 1.8 1.4 0.3

Pretty colors though. Its what the population craves.

Hottest summer ever Hammer?

Breezy Lake winds today. Actually feels nice. Looks like 0.02"-0.83" of rain around TH from last night.

HRRR now selling a total miss east for WI/IL.

Another event that will end as mundane and boring as possible in the summer of extreme bore. Hopefully it still cuts west

ironwood cluster looks like it could turn and ride into our area

I appreciate Scoot reaching a hand out to me while I dangle off the Tobin.

First time I can ever recall not having to mow my lawn after winter. Aside from a few weedy spots that I need to shave off, grass said f it. Too hot and dry. I guess will have to wait until late September to get some growth.

I'm still suspecting the whole of it has been over amped in guidance, and as we near the organized coherence might unravel ... at least some. But ultimately trimming back. how much so, heh Won't be butt hurt if that's not the case - just a suspicion in this case. Lot of tl;dr read to support why -

75 in of rain sounds biblical. Hope you had an ARK!

I knew it! As soon as I walked outside I noticed it. There's even a little burnt rubber smell.

I’d probably side with some high res models but perhaps not fully. Maybe a Nam/euro compromise. This feels like one of those things that we have a 50 mile wide plume of heavy rain with embedded little meso lows in it that will enhance rainfall. That’s especially true I think for Western areas. Further east, we might see another one sort of develop and try to pinwheel to the coast again and some typical enhancement on East Northeast flow. But these setups are always varying from run to run. I do think even up to Dendrite gets a good drink.