All Activity

This. Lord is it so bad sometimes.

Compare RGEM from 6z, definitely improved with the primary speed and location. Can't take the snow map or mix timing at this long range.

Going to be fun to watch how far north the mixing issues occur

Maybe this squall line can stay together as it heads south and we get brief heavy squall later this afternoon

This should be quite different for ERCOT. 2021 the main issue was freeze offs in the Permian. That won’t be the case for size this time

Reggie QPF output looks more in line with what you would expect from a SWFE. Doesn't have the steroids look of some of the other guidance.

1/23 12z GFS

I don't take the ICON very seriously but the cutoff is pretty insane, 10 inches NYC, 21 HPN. I'm in between them but a bit closer to HPN.

Nope. That isn’t the reason. .

Yep. Start there. 12” is baseline for majority across the 3 southern New England states.

New GFS running now.

Way Last 3 runs

Add the RRFS to the models that have improved at 12z. It shifted the thermals and surface features south. Looks like a great run for most of our forum. And it's not quite over here with some light wraparound stuff still to move through.

To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ.

Definite improvements for the NAM and RGEM as the primary on both are faster to move east and do not gain as much latitude. ICON was a step back with the opposite of the above.

What is the chance a Cold Weather -Advisory will be issued? One was issued for the DMV region.

LOL, as I put up the last post church sent out text, no services Sunday.

Yes but the GFS has been creeping slowly to the northwest with the sleet line.

OK.. So for all facing a potential ice storm - I'm sure you have prepared but if you have not: a few things to consider. 1) It is going to be BRUTALLY cold following the conclusion of this storm. If you do not have heat, your house will become cold, and quickly. Make sure you have plenty of layers. If you have a wooden fireplace, be stocked. If you have gas, even without electricity, you can use gas for some things. Sometimes an oven can turn on as well, depending on type. 2) Downed power lines must be treated as live at all times. Even if all power is out, an improperly installed generator can back feed the grid and when it hits a transformer, it can be stepped up to relatively high voltages. 3) Refrigerated foods can last to around 36 hours once the power is out and the refrigerator is not opened much. HOWEVER, if you can put ice in the refrigerator, the air tight seal combined with adding ice will help keep the refrigerator cold. Of course store ice is best, but if you can get some sleet, or even some chips of ice, it can help. Make sure food is covered and outside bins washed off before using or cooking to ensure against contamination. Also use judgement about where you take ice/snow/sleet from. But last resorts are last resorts 4) IF we obtain a crippling amount of ice then expect impacts to linger for weeks, including potential loss of power, diminished or absent emergency services and impassable roads. 5) If you have no heat whatsoever, you can use a vehicle to sit in. Some things to keep in mind, trees and power lines can fall at any time. Keep mind of where the vehicle is In relation. Use your judgement. Also, if in a garage, ensure the door is open if you are going to run the vehicle. If possible, have the tail pipe pointing out of where the garage door opens (ie don't back the vehicle in for this storm). In case anyone forgets, garage doors always have manual releases. Be mindful of your gas and ration as necessary. Turn the vehicle on, let it get warm and then stop running. As it gets colder, turn it back on. Again, judgement. Be safe out there. Hopefully we find a miracle way to warm up and/or miss the ice. Assuming not however, this storm must be treated as if we are going to get the worst of the potential impacts and prepare as such. If we don't, then good. If we do, at least be prepared as much as possible.

The sheer volume of this storm is incredible. I have never seen such a large scale even gradient of snow.

Probably waiting since guidance isn't looking like it will be much and there seems to be more changes.

Great summary Im definitely leaning towards a 50/50 blend right now When we're staring at model snowfall maps for the next storm, you'll often see options like the plain old 10:1 ratio (10 inches of snow per 1 inch of liquid) or the Kuchera method, which a lot of sites use because it's supposed to be smarter. The Kuchera approach looks at the warmest temperature anywhere in the atmospheric column (usually up to about 18,000 feet) and plugs it into a formula to tweak the ratio. If that max temp is really cold (say below about -2°C or 28°F), it can spit out fluffy ratios well above 10:1—sometimes 20:1 or more—while warmer columns drop it down toward 5:1 or even lower to account for denser, wetter snow or partial melting. It's a quick way to adjust totals without needing super detailed soundings, and it often gives higher accumulations than straight 10:1 in cold-air setups.But here's the catch that a lot of amateurs (and even some pros) overlook: Kuchera basically ignores the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), that magic layer between roughly -12°C and -18°C where those big, starry, branching snowflakes form best. Those dendrites trap tons of air and stack up super fluffy (high ratios like 15:1–30:1+), especially when the whole layer stays saturated and deep. Kuchera just keys off the single warmest temp in the column, so it can seriously underestimate snowfall in setups with a nice, cold, deep DGZ even if the column max isn't ultra-frigid, or overestimate in marginal/warm cases. Next time you're comparing maps, check model soundings for how beefy that -12° to -18°C layer looks Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Yea, I'm perfectly content with 12-18".....more is a welcome bonus.

Gonna suck when they have to make some of that up. Back in the day, we had a bad year, and Spring vacation got cut short. Schools are required to have so many days in a year. Unless they have an online set up that qualifies.

[emoji817]….. that’s a great point about the rain rates. Some of the worst road conditions I’ve ever been in was freezing fog. .