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Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol: https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125

Passing showers today.

Still watching at least hoping to water the yard lol .

Looking at the presentation on the WV right now and this seems very plausible. .

Going to pass over that warm eddy to with much improved structure now. Shear shouldn't be too bad overnight. I could see a cat 3 peak potentially. By afternoon tomorrow it will start feeling effects of much higher shear and eventually drier air towards coast.

Really starting to look quite nice on IR

Yea, I brought up Lily and Opal yesterday...Ivan was another.

This tells us all we need to know. 3 westward moving typhoons and no recurve . Mild as far as eye can see with no troughing . https://x.com/ryanweather/status/2108372136901390378?s=46

We'll see...should interesting to watch play out.

Yep, it's your Opal 1995, Dennis 2005, Lili 2002 type. Although those peaked higher than this one will so this will likely be even weaker coming in. The more recent storms like Laura and Michael are the exception in the N Gulf.

The western Pacific was absolutely warming faster than the eastern Pacific over the past decade. Good discussion....sure beats the hell out of "warm and rainy".

It's a quick hitter and dead.

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared.

My cousin lives on Pine Island, Florida. She was actually glad there was a strong El-Nino. She knows the weather like me. She is tired of the hurricanes.

Sometimes we get spoiled by the symmetry of perfect monster canes. I’m one who marvels at their beauty! I can tell you that as someone who sits in the crosshairs of this system, regardless of dry air & especially shear…I’m still quite fidgety tonight! .

Next recon will be telling.

We’ve just seen a lot of eye candy the last few years in low sheer environments. This is a gulf cane of old.

Latest hurricane ever!

Today's Highs PHL: 80 ACY: 79 EWR: 78 JFK: 78 BLM: 77 New Brnswck: 77 LGA: 76 TEB: 76 ISP: 76 TTN: 75 NYC: 73

This was never going to be a storm you make into a screensaver. It might make a brief run at Cat 3 overnight before the shear/dry air twin hammer hit tomorrow. Like others said it might resemble more a mid latitude nor’easter eaten away by dry air when it comes in. Still a significant surge/wind impact near landfall and big flood/tornado threat east of the center where training bands set up.

I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts

In this corner we have the ever-strengthening superrrr niñooo! In the other we have the shear challenger--Isaaaaías!!!