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March '13 is probably the most egregious example of this

nobody knows anything yet, it could be sunny or rainy or smowy, by sunday we should know somewhat, by tuesday consensus!

Yea, you also said something to the effect of "am I crazy for thinking we could go on a Jan 2011 type of run". That is when I responded with the lack of blockbuster cool ENSO months of February. I know that wasn't a forecast per se...breaking balls...

76” here

High of 46F

Lol in the long range thread

I know I'm asking too early, but my reasoning is that I'm due to land at EWR at 2 pm next Friday; what time is this showing? Better question, when would we have a better, clearer picture on timing? Yours in lunacy.

51F/Looks like we may not go below freezing tonight...

That’s interesting, because it clearly shows that there was quite some variability in the effects from that storm, even within the same town. I was actually referring specifically to our observations site when I wrote “minimally degraded the snowpack here or resulted in a net gain in snowpack liquid equivalent.”. So the focus was our site and the mountains; I didn’t mean to imply “here” in the more regional sense. I cored the snowpack before the storm on December 15th and there was 1.26” of liquid in it, and then I cored it again after the storm on December 20th and there was 0.70” of liquid in it. So, we lost about ½” of liquid from the snowpack over the course of the storm, which I felt was fairly minimal relative to the event as a whole (the totals for the storm were 0.91” of liquid equivalent and 0.5” of snow). There’s definitely some room for debate about just how minimal/moderate one considers that, but if that’s what happened at our site in the valley, then the mountains must have incorporated all that liquid and hardly missed a beat. The other warm event I was considering in that post (Winter Storm Ezra) was later in the month, and it brought 1.24” of liquid equivalent and 3.2” of snow. In association with that event, the snowpack at our site went from 1.63” of liquid on the 28th to 1.93” of liquid on the 30th. Aside from the snow “quality” issue after that storm, that seems quantitatively like a gain for the snowpack at our site in the valley, and if that’s what happened down at our site, the mountain snowpack should have had the capacity to just gobble up everything that storm had to offer (which should have been 1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent). When we’re talking the 12-14” of liquid that PF measured in the higher elevation snowpack, I’d think both of those events would have minimal effects.

Thanks Kevin! it's my original training and early career as an accountant that makes me like to play with numbers

Didn't know this... https://www.facebook.com/groups/1324788797564648/permalink/25571392229144300/?rdid=Cz3Qx05L6GdPevEm#

The GFS is going to cause flooding here Saturday. It's significantly heavier with the precip than the other globals and has SE TN and N. GA in the 4-7" range.

No I said 56 inches between next week and April 1 for me. Hopefully you get 100

I think most airports are going the way of that. DTW has had paid snow observers for like 15+ years. A lot of other places do too (paid observers, volunteer, etc). I think the goal is to find a good/feasible spot to measure away from the airfield (harder to measure, plus faa dont want it anyway). As long as its within a 5 mile radius or less of the airport, its good.

I was being facetious, but you did mention you could see a stretch like that like a couple of days ago.

It’s amazing to understand the incredible amount of variables that go into temperatures over time. There are many variables!!! Thanks for taking the time to compile the data this is close enough to me to just add a degree of two in my location.

meant in reference to forecast models not sensible weather haha

Gotta get that done too. Still too much snow though.

I was kind of hoping we could have gotten a solid 2-3 year stretch of ENSO neutral conditions but this developing La Nina and now signals for an emerging EL Nino are going to run that. But this constant seesaw of ENSO with multiple strong EL Nino events over the last decade is really causing some major atmospheric chaos

Yeah looks like a great weekend....

If it torches like 72-73 or 97-98 trust me you won't like that, lol

All the major models have the storm on the 15-16th plus a follow up storm on the 18-19th. Plenty of time to dial them in and get to fantasy land later on. Point is we have something to track!

It will start this season, the second half, and go wild to close out the decade.

Yes sir. I worked as an intern with the RI state climatologist and was really educated on RI climate. Another reason you see some bigger totals in SE Mass during dying clippers is often OES follows in EMA

As much as I am a believer in CC and its influences on weather and while there may be some influences, I agree that CC is not the ultimate driver behind our crummy luck. Eventually we will get into periods (and a several year stretch) where things work out and we get slammed. This will happen sooner versus later.