All Activity

someone Met tag him

43 mostly cloudy here in White Plains, NY

went down a lot from 00z

This 6-10 is a beaut from my perspective!

Lol I'm sorry buddy! I never want to steal anyone's joy! You enjoy your little slop shower! Lol I'm just being a stuck up snow snob. It will wear off in a few more days lol

2 left today, use em wisely

I think we do OK this season but it’s small ball. But yes, the season has totally changed its feel. As I said last week these extended warm-ups are winter killers.

Are you implying that 2026 will probably be similar to 2017 for the rest of winter in the E US?

I guess maybe you missed the part where I was only speaking in terms of ENSO, not any of the other stuff you mentioned? @GaWx Ummm no, that is not what I was implying at all. I’ll say it again, I was speaking only of the ENSO evolution

46 now and bright sunshine. Feels great!

It’s a cold front

As much as I would love to see the GFS/GEFS score this... until Euro is on board, ill stay from getting to excited.

There's definitely something starting to move in now, dark clouds overhead and the wind has really picked up in the past few minutes

Winter 2014 was a great winter for this area!

A snow squall has moved into the Binghamton area. Rain and snow showers remain possible across the NYC area later this afternoon or early this evening with the frontal passage.

44F/Dp22 with very light snow

OHC continues to rise rapidly:

Winds certainly picked up and are out of the wnw and temps dropping.

You won't steal my joy!

and now its bright sun and snow!

That is what usually happens with arctic blasts in +TNH patterns...historic cold knifes down the center of the country and we get unremarkable anomalies.

I looked up a pic of graupel. You're exactly right, that's what is falling here.

can’t remember the last time we’ve seen subsidence like this over the MC… straight up P8 forcing late month

If it wasn’t 48 when it started, we would have definitely gotten a couple tenths in a matter of 3-5 minutes. Temp dropped to 37.

The La Nina is almost over. The subsurface wasn't even meaningfully negative in Dec, definitely won't be in Jan. 0-300m down for 100-180W by the equator was only -0.03 in Dec, v. -1.20 in Dec 2024. It's night and day different. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt The eastern zones of 3 and also 1.2 are much warmer than they have been in a while. The rapid transitions out of La Nina to El Nino tend to be stormy in the West and we've seen that in recent weeks/months. The record warmth out here is more tied to the North Pacific, it's more of a leftover from last winter than a direct driver from this winter. Essentially the setup is nearly identical in the background for the north pacific, and since we've had near neutral conditions in the tropics, not a whole lot has changed. Once we get in Feb/Mar/Apr the subsurface warming will either peak and reverse or continue and that will shake up the pattern.