All Activity

75 dew currently, This is what it’s all about.

Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 1. Western Gulf: A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic. That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there. The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS! Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast.

Mostly Sunny on the NWS p&c may have been a bit agressive for today. Seems to be averaging out more partly sunny. Currently 88.

Some thoughts on yesterday, then today... Yesterday: Anytime you get a "swashed spider" hodograph, the storms are going to be weaker and messier than just looking at the thermodynamics would expect you to believe. Venting, inflow, water loading, updraft velocity are all going to be negatively impacted. That said, yesterday there was a decent shortwave and enough low level instability that allowed a few storms to develop over/west of the mountains and get the cold pool party started. Once the cold pool production began, the ambient DCAPE and torrid conditions was enough to sustain weak pulse like thunderstorms to the ocean. Limbs start to fail around these parts at around 30 mph, and you start seeing downed trees around 45-50 mph. That is just the nature of the flora in our region, they don't get hit often and so even weak storms do damage. Today: Another weak wave as part of the packet that spawned the tornado outbreak in IL/IN yesterday will move into the western region this afternoon. Theta-E values in excess of 350K with minimal MLCIN should be enough to spark off scattered showers. While overall wind speeds in the lower troposphere are higher today, shear magnitudes remain weak, especially above 3km. Cold Pool propagation and aggregation of these showers should spawn further flank development of showers and thunderstorms. Due to the higher windspeeds aloft today compared to yesterday, storm and cold pool motions will likely be 10kts faster than yesterday. Therefore ground relative windspeeds should be slightly higher today. The question will be storm coverage, which we really won't know for sure until things fire after 3PM. CAM's are hinting that areas south of US50 are more likely than up near the M/D line.

The 30% wind risk area has been extended south all the way to the northern part of the nc piedmont

Hey ole buddy buddy this is great news and way to go big time in the weather world!!!

Air mass change though this time so I think they hold up impressively

Montreal is an amazing city. Quebec itself is gorgeous. Enjoy

The cell that popped up over me ladt night dropped a nice 1/4" of rain. All the plants look alive today. Nice cool breeze.

If the HRRR is to be trusted... just like most of our other threats... peters out at game time

It looks like an attempt at some early activity during the 1:30 pm to 3:00 pm period, probably not strong or widespread, followed by a more significant early / mid evening cluster... Lots of folks looking for a perfect forecast from an imperfect science related to thunderstorm initiation & intensity.

Indeed! That 11AM 95 at RDU is along with Rocky Mount, NC, the hottest of ALL major reporting stations in the SE. 24 hours ago, RDU was “only” 90 and Rocky Mt was 91.

Tell me more.

Yes to all...

30% wind probs again today Nothing last night imby other than some drizzle. Not measurable though. Cool light show though.

Already to 87 here

The RRFS did well yesterday for sure. In fact, some of the extended HRRR runs from the previous day hinted at that evolution and progression too. I would not be surprised if some of the guidance is underdone today as well. I think what helped yesterday was the cells which fired developed a strong cold pool and that helped the cluster materialize. I don't believe CAMs are great at picking up on that and I would not be surprised if we saw similar today. Also it looks like there are some residual outflow boundaries from yesterday as well.

The Blue Angels have two upcoming shows in Maryland. Expect an increase in these activities across DC/Baltimore/Annapolis for the 250th events. https://www.blueangels.navy.mil/show/

Good luck with the forecast. Most of the Meso models are showing activity around 18z.

noting we've been put in a SLGT for Sunday as well by SPC

Also - looking out ahead - the NAM twins are fairly bullish for Sunday at range.

Good luck, hopefully you will see some activity, the traffic on I 84 could be a tough go especially around the Fishkill, ny area and the Newburgh Beacon bridge. The area around Brewster, Poughkeepsie, Fishkill, has had some good past activity with storms.

Depending on the eventual Cu field I think RDU is on track for around 103 today. 95F as of the 11am observation.

Monitoring and handling several outdoor high school graduation ceremonies across western CT today; and am wary of my districts near the NY/CT border region... Always a tough call since folks want to know hours in advance whether or not a cell is going to go directly over the event area! Lol. Yesterday we had to send and keep folks in their cards for an extended period until cells cleared the area and lightning was at least 10 miles away... Nerve-wracking as hell... I will monitor your page for any local obs of interest out in that area today... I thought the RRFS did the best job yesterday and is the most bullish again today... not my favorite model, but it appeared to have the best handle on things late yesterday.