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I was 50/50 on going to the MCB. I ended up staying in Kingsport. I have a kiddo who plays in the band for the good guys which is why I wanted it to be warm. They are gonna freeze their tails off! I about froze at the Vandy game. Thankfully, they are young and good at what they do!!! I get to make the midnight run to Knoxville tonight for pickup! I do love it, though. I should be here for the 0z runs. Haha. I slept-in a bit this morning - by my standards. Then I went running, and pretty much froze. Stopped at four miles and had enough of the wind chill. As for modeling. I think they jumped the gun just a hair and are correcting. It is more than common for models to be about a week ahead of the actual pattern change. Overall, the BIG event is Jan 8-9 when the EPO ridge goes up. I still see that, and it looks like it is moving forward with time. Also, models lose things in the 5-7 day range...so there is that. I still very much like where we are headed. VERY MUCH. Honestly, I like reading what you all post. So, sometimes I just back down my volume a bit which can be a bit much. Our daily 12z GFS "this ain't gonna happen" post -> but if it did -> The Day After Tomorrow.

CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says).

Duster on deck for this evening/tonight.

Yea, that ice storm for Arkansas was crazy, some places over 5" of ice

Clipper Thursday and clipper Sunday.

You said the same thing about this month. Take a break.

About an inch so far with a little more yet to go. It'll be nice to measure without drifting

The 12z GFS spawned some type of monstrosity on January 11th.

Prettty disappointing turn of events although rug pulls are what we specialize in around here

Getting a few flurries here.

Yep for sure, that would be a close second.

It’s not all bad imo. A surging ridge into Alaska and a trough east of Hawaii is an ideal look at this range. I’m wondering if we’re seeing some feedback issues… a lot of moving parts… windshield wiper effect. You’ve got a stout -NAO developing, a lot of active shortwaves embedded in the flow and a complete Pacific reshuffle commencing. I’m hard pressed to believe we’re even close to a final solution.

They’ve extended the wind advisory until later today.

The 24 hours of high wind blew the greatest impending January pattern well out to sea

Yeah it keeps a SE Ridge the entire run basically yikes

Lock it in?

What are you trying to say???? I'm part of the pack?? Lol Bring on the fangs!

Wind has been absolutely insane. My Tempest is NOT in a good spot for measuring windspeed and it’s routinely returning 30mph gusts, higher than I’ve ever seen from it except in like 2-3 other instances which were one off gusts.

So if it will still do all these things…then who f’n cares if the temp has increased, or not? It’s been frigid for two months. Looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future. CC is not the issue why you haven’t had a good snowstorm. But I’ve had a good snowstorm already. The CT shore has had a couple. So has Cape Cod. Virginia has too..a few of them. Delaware, NC, Maryland, Chicago, NNE. All killing it. It’s just random crazy ju ju, or whatever you want to call it. And that’s that currently.

Had this originally in the other thread but moved here. Regarding the intense rates and low visibility of the 12/30/2000 storm, here's a pic I took with a good ol' SLR (non digital) camera. For reference, the car on the right is at most 75-80 feet away. Still doesn't do it justice.

I think there’s some wisdom in this. Kids growing up in today’s climate will, 20+ years from now, look back with snowy nostalgia on winters that followed this general pattern across much of the region. We bring this up often, and this is a good example of how fickle our memories can be when it comes to how things actually unfolded in the past.

I am actually super tilted this morning. I realize how stupid this is since I was ecstatic less than 24 hours ago, but I'm about ready to punt the first two weeks of January. Gross.

Well ... if it is wrong and a +PNA does take place instead, that would justify setting probabilities. I will just say that in my 25 years of these index awareness', which includes observing their correlations both in situ, and over time spans, and how the various mass fields they numerically represent ( teleconnections) then subsequently interact ...etc, I haven't seen a model +PNA win as a direct go to very often. Typically, when in modeling conflict that starts with the PNA, when the EPO arrives in the guidance, the PNA suspends and/or mutes ... Again, with time lag... the -EPO collapses and the +PNA then materializes. All the overnight stuff is doing is telling us that the previous paradigm is not going to go straight into a +PNA... It is going to go a route that frankly tends to happen most of the time. It'll be interesting to see where this goes. By the way, don't look at the 12z GFS operational run.

As I mentioned in another thread recently, I've relocated. As such, I've taken keen interest in the west coast weather given that, amidst the chaos of the move, my ski season this year won't start till mid-January (haven't missed much this year so far). Generally speaking - it seems that New England snowfall is inversely correlated with the Sierra Nevada, whereas it appears much less correlated with the Rockies. This is mostly due to the existence of a Western Ridge being a positive for NE. Question for the Mets: What is a pattern (from a teleconnection POV) that is positive for both the Sierra and New England?

I usually hit up Bakers on the Kennebec in Pittston or James Eddy in Dresden on the Eastern River, Fished at Worthings just over the bridge in Gardiner heading back to Aug and have never done any good there, Those 3 are in the process of getting camps on, I have not fished in Bowdinham on the Cathance River for 20 yrs or so but that's where i'm going saturday, I have had good luck in the past there.