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Getting missed to the south on December 5th wouid be icing on the cake of the past few winters.

Appreciate your posts Walt. I think you did a fine job in highlighting this event. This never was about accumulating snow south and east of I95. I think the event under performed from my area north and west compared to most modeling 36-48 hours out. The 12Z Monday guidance pulled the football away and that was mostly correct for the north of 80 / west of 287 crowd.

Lol

TBH, that isn't the ideal route to a high-end month east of ORH in December, anyway.

Great post!!

So has anyone used Cline.ai to write code?

Slightly more than 0.0" here as well.

Which in winter tends to mean "cold, damned cold."

Very interesting

Unfortunate wave timing on the models right now. The southern stream shortwaves for Friday and Sunday are perfectly timed with a northern stream shortwave to suppress the flow out ahead of them and prevent amplification. On the GFS, the subsequent wave on Wednesday instead has a little ridging in the northern stream out ahead of it and easily amplifies into a cutter. We should avoid simplistic black and white statements like the Pacific is somehow preventing snowstorms. For each of the next several waves, a subtle and random shift in the height field could or could have allowed snow for us. We've always had wave interference. It's why it doesn't snow every week in our region. This is our climo. When the pieces fit together, it will snow. Same as it's always been.

On December 3? .

This hard freeze is pretty impressive looking.

ICON looks similar to the NAM precip distribution wise.

Possibly each of us with our own chapter? Stay calm and lucid ….. as always …

Had constant SN from 7:15 AM thru 11:30 PM as the temp slowly climbed from 17 to 23, finishing with 6.9" on 0.49" LE, 14:1 ratio. However, it was like 2 different storms; by 4:30 we had only 2" of tiny flakes. I didn't take a core then, but it was like walking on cornmeal, probably no higher ratio than 8:1. Then the dendrites began to look better and by 9 the total was 5.2" on 0.43" LE, probably close to 20:1. The board held 1.7" this morning with only 0.06" LE and given the fluff, the post-9 PM might've been 2" if I'd gone out at midnight. Very little wind as of now, so the fir and hemlocks are loaded.

This past storm trended more amped all the way up until the storm.

Thankfully the soil temps wont be a problem. Its been cold!

I think you both are talking about how the euro nailed Sandy

I can barely remember yesterday so maybe your right. I swear the storm I’m thinking of though was pretty much a whiff south till it beefed up enough but maybe I’m just imagining things.

I can take getting ram rodded in the shed . It happens with wx and I get it. Usually I find some way to get at least some snow or ice here. 32 point something all day with rain . But this one spread both cheeks wide open , and inserted the weed whacker and then turned it on.

6z ECM has 0.10 to 0.15 liquid on Friday for our area. Not much support. The Canadian/GEPS shows a weak Norlun signature on Sat. morning. Weak overrunning can sometimes trigger precipitation much further north than anticipated... but virga is the likely result.

Are you talking about Jan 2024? From 3-5 days out they were progged to hit PA and ensembles only had us at an inch or less, then they shifted south to give us the max.

Since no one has said it yet….. Rates will overcome!!