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Wpc Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Odd that they wouldn't have the heavy snow outlook up to at least Philly/SNJ given the NBM map showing 6" up to 276/195.

you finally get your wish after the mid-week clippers.

welcome back.

First, remember that the GEFS is now 31 members. I think there were dissemination limitations that prevent all members from being sent to various servers, but the 20 displayed in that image are only a subset. That said, there are certainly a bunch of GEFS members that are duds, but my guess is that those are the ones that keep the cutoff stuck in the far Southwest. Certainly limited support for that idea outside of the GFS/GEFS camp.

there *may* be a window early, right after sunset, before the more widespread clouds move in. possibly another window late, after 1am, if the cme effects are longer lasting.

You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

Growth really improved after about 830-9pm. Those 3 hours or so between 9-midnight we really stacked it up. Prob had at least 2/3rds of our accumulation during that stretch. I don’t think it ever snowed truly heavy for more than about 15 min at a time. But just very consistent efficient moderate snow with those heavier bursts mixed in which was stacking at 1-1.5” per hour.

There’s almost a 10 degree difference in my temps than there’s. That’s scary. Lol .

Weather don't care about making a storm thread lol

the weekend has one of my eyebrows in raised position First 'potential' big one worth tracking for the OV in a long time. This type of scenario is what makes tracking fun. Being on the edge 5 days out and hoping for a shift. We've seen too many of these monsters bully north, sometimes to our benefit, (PD2003 and Feb2010), and often to our demise, (Feb 13, 2007).

Still an uneasy feeling for our sub forum with neither ens means budging whatsoever. Maybe an ass hair, but nothing that would make me think the AI/CMC/Ukie solutions hold water. The means are lock-step with each other right now. Very steady. Haven't seen that level of agreement in a long time.

living the cad life

thanks - that was the one i was trying to find unsuccessfully.

Been out splitting wood for the upcoming vodka cold, so catching up on 12z. Both the GEFS and EPS look completely fine for this range. GEPS ofc looks awesome. Can't bother caring much about the AI models at this point.

Looks like early nighttime will be the best window for viewing in terms of cloud cover, then we could get blocked at the mid level between ~10 and midnight or so. The CME is impacting now so I’m hoping to be able to catch stuff after sundown if it isn’t oriented badly for big effects. Right now it appears we could get that coveted south Bz but not sure if that will stick in the end or there’s a big parcel of northiness to come that could dampen things.

Reckon Nashville is gaining confidence

asplundh

oops.

Well, that tells you what they are thinking. Of course subject to change if necessary but for now they are thinking max totals south of this forum. They door leave the door open for some northward adjustments. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Most are over the Tn Valley with some South with it. Maybe come up with a more likely solution between the GEFS , EPS and GEPS.

I tell myself every time models look solid this far out I won’t check again until at least three days out but I guarantee I’ll be looking again this evening lol

Its more for almanac and historical purposes

significantly pass. his time has come and gone.