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Maybe we can try sneaking in an EML ~next Tuesday

Had to move the decimal point one spot over to the left after yesterday's "rain"...0.02". Wasn't this supposed to be our "wet period"? Man, drought guy's head is going to explode. On a positive note, May is the last full month we add daylight. Patience!

I've been reading up on some old time weather events around this area. Anyone know where I can get some more information regarding the August 22, 1915 Hanover tornado? Seems like it was probably part of line, and was more likely than not high end EF-2/low end EF-3 that went straight through downtown. Apparently gloves from the glove factory were found many many miles away. I pulled up the reanalysis maps and it was definitely a high shear low cape. Seemed like Harrisburg area got firehosed picking up 4"-5" of rain Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I honestly want it to be warm and humid for the next 6 months. I’m so over the weather we’ve had since the pattern flip last September. It’s cloudy 4-5 days a week with very little to show for it. Let’s get swamp weather and rebuild the water table.

Picked up 0.24" of rain. Nowhere near enough, but we'll take it!

I know when to get excited. I definitely would not say ripping at S-.....but Ineedsnow will.

Same down here. Sucks.

Well, is this any different that CoastalWx having a PT for "MASSIVE DENDRITES" when "WE SNOW?" It will be 3/4S-, and we will get "RIPPING!"

Came through with a bite in Raleigh. Immediate wind change to north and gusts that definitely topped 30

Holy Christ, this place is dead.

What are you talking about? Nobody is "having a discussion with AI"... I use it for assistance in creating an engaging headline, that's all. As Don pointed out, there is, in fact, evidence that it is better at that than a human. And I can say from my personal analytics, that this is certainly the case.

I mean I don’t love the punishing humidity but my skin certainly does better with more humidity than we’ve had.

2015 # of 90 degree 2015: PHL: 37 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1; Jun: 7; Jul: 10; Aug: 12; Sep: 7 EWR: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun 4; Jul: 11; Aug: 13; Sep: 5 TTN: 27 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 9; Sep: 6 LGA: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun:3; Jul : 6; Aug: 8; Sep: 3 ACY: 21 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 4; Aug: 8; Sep: 3 TEB: 38 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun : 5; Jul: 8; Aug: 12; Sep: 8 NYC: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 5 ; Aug: 8; Sep: 6 JFK: 12 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul:3 ; Aug: 6; Sep: 2 ISP: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 2; Sep: 2 New Brunswick: 36 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 11; Aug: 14; Sep: 6 89 Degree Days: TEB: 7 TTN: 4 PHL: 10 New Brunswick: 10 EWR: 6 NYC: 8 ACY: 9 JFK: 9 LGA: 7 ISP: 2 The year/summer was warm ad had the record for most 80 or >80 degree days in many spots. or top 3 in most others.

Projections for this year EWR: 30 - 35 NYC: 21 - 26 LGA: 26 - 30 JFK: 17

hey bluewave how was the 2015 summer? was it hot, average or cooler than normal?

There definitely is some support for the typical torch spots to hit 90

We know that if a rising parcel is much warmer than its environment (implying large CAPE), it will accelerate more and create intense updrafts. The same concept in reverse is true for a downdraft. If the sinking parcel is much colder than its environment, it will accelerate downward, leading to a more intense downdraft. The area between the path of the rising parcel and its environment is CAPE; the area between the path of the sinking parcel and its environment is DCAPE. You can find a nice slide deck at https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/DCAPE_Web.pdf

Yeah that’s the goofus with overmixing issues. They did something to it 5-10 years ago where the mixing just went wildy superadiabatic a month or so either side of the solstice. The 110s were fun though. It does it every summer under the heat ridge in the Plains too…120s into the eastern Dakotas and Minny for a couple of days when in actuality it ends up 95/75 instead of 120/45. 00z euro definitely supported near 90° a day or two next week, but that’s pretty far our there in lalaland for us up here given our climo.

He did…I watched it on radar. But you will eventually learn that every storm and gust front will elicit “biggest drops EVER” and “gusts at least 60mph” in leafed out trees.

Alright so next week everybody drop off all your drenched sweat rags, shirts, and other humidity paraphernalia at 87's house. Don't even wring it out just slop it at the door

You are really latching onto the far east part of this 2nd Kelvin wave. When the next one moves across, warm subsurface anomalies will recenter - overall they are further west in the mean than 1997.

Styers Orchard up near me in Bucks County announced the same thing, lost pretty much their entire apple crop this year and are going to have to import them to sell. Very sad, I enjoy fresh apples in this area over the summer. The last freeze killed my one blueberry bush but the other is looking like its about to fruit and do OK. My rasberries and strawberries are doing better than ever though.

Maybe, maybe not. We aren’t going to have a good idea where the forcing will actually set up during the winter for several more months. For now, so far, this event looks a lot more like 1997 than it does 2015