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starting at 12Z today its better to prioritize the mesoscale models - the various NAMS, HRRR -etc. etc. IMO

Lol, I just realized that he 12z GFS precip map put a “blue” area of .50 precip right over ITT & MJS !

12z is a meh-vent. We need more significant trends north at this point. Maybe better for the I-195 to Philly corridor.

I thought 500 was a bit improved with a faster phase, but as you show the surface was about the same really.

The Blend

Oh yeah,enjoy every moment of it.Kids love it !! I have to call my lawn people out,i havent even picked up my yard yet. Like @Mathew was saying earlier we dont need to have any severe right now here,the trees are still stressed and damaged,we had some gust of just winds last Sat morning and knocked our power out for about 6 hrs

Well, the model trends have become interesting.

Euro has been all over the place over the last week. It's terrible too.

For the LSV area, the precip difference between 12z & 6z on the GFS was mostly noise level.

We historic warmth

Lol yea was thinking the same thing. Glad they don’t plow basketball courts.

Those people ride the model roller coaster every run every day...

Hoping CPK can record a couple of inches. I am personally pulling for CPK to reach average would be a shame not to with all the cold (conscious we are ina dry spell).

PNA seems to be rising towards the end of the run as well, perhaps in response to the MJO wave. AO is variable.

Don’t worry , it won’t play out that way. Lots of time for changes both good and bad.

True, but it’s for the love of the game. I embrace my limitations as long as the kiddos are maxing on fun.

Tight rope is a good term for this. Very much so. Or the proverbial thread the needle.

Don’t remind me, we choked that one away bleeding the mid levels the last 24 hours.

I'm still waiting on my 15" the euro game me 24 hours before the last storm.

It's funny reading the different comments from yesterday to today. Yesterday several of you were so excited and on bored with a wintry and snowy middle to end of next week. Today the same people are frustrated and talking about how it's going to be warmer and not wintry and this is the pattern we're in. Same people, same comments, same reactions. Haven't we learn by now to just wait until we get a few days out to know exactly what's going to happen? I'm on neither camp as far as it being wintry and snowy or warmer and rainy. Not until we get to midweek. Then I think I can jump in on which direction it's going.

Absolutely! And that's why I am hopeful if not a bit skeptical. We can pull this off for sure. We just need a little more than we have needed for a while.

Should be innphase 8 by the 2nd week of March hopefully for one last good snow stretch.