All Activity

oops my bad, wait until Primashine sees the ECWMF clowns

South of Philly is where we saw it first. For example, Charlotte hasn't seen a 10-inch snow season since 2003-04, or even an above average snow season since 2013-14.

wow, didn't even see this before I posted.

Sun's out, guns out. 72°

Sun and guns Up to 70°

I don’t know why you would hope for that. 100F heat WITH an onshore flow would likely be a mass casualty heat event with the humidity.

83/70 here with juicy southeast winds. Dry air should mix in in a few hours and temps will skyrocket up above 95.

Satellite as of 12:05. Good pockets of CU developing. 15Z HRRR has pretty significant cell right over Chicago metro. Could be a very costly hail storm if that happens.

If temperatures are held down a few degrees from the HRRR soundings (which the current clouds over southern Wisconsin might help with) we could be in business. However 12Z CAMs trended to a messier mode around here. Only the RRFS still maintains more spaced out cells.

It was still a very hot summer though as it set the NYC record for 90 degree days and that three day stretch of 100+ was extremely memorable. I lived through that 10 day heatwave in NYC and I haven't felt so much heat before or since then.

12z NAM Nest soundings suggest nastiness tomorrow evening into nighttime

that is what i thought too

I browse every so often, but as stated a while back, thought it a good time to "get to work", as things were slow and in truth thought it a good time for a break in addtion to my usual sprint/summer board break. I'll stop in ever so often. Sounds like your getting answers to your health riddles. Fingers crossed for you pal. TTFN

Only managed 1 day at or above 90 in the Twin Cities during this stretch.

Yes. Perfection. A little breezy but that should help it feel nice.

Miss on round one. Guidance nailed the hard turn to the north as the decaying line approached the metro.

Here is New Brunswick, NJ versus Newark for July 1993. New Brunswick was 0.6F above the 1991-2020 normal [measured with standard MMTS] versus Newark 4.3F above 1991-2020 normal [with HO-83]. Certainly seems highly suspect to me. One note - there appears to be a 1-day offset for the New Brunswick data, as the observation must have been taken the following morning and ascribed to that day [even though the maximum would have occurred the prior afternoon].

Today has a sneaky thunderstorm day feel and look to it.

Hopefully with your projected 3C of warming, JFK and EWR will see 100 degree temps a few times every summer even with onshore flow. Do you think a time will come when we could hit 100 degrees even on a southerly wind?

There are places in Florida near the coast that see 100 degree temps-- see Jacksonville.

Do you think the 1993 Newark numbers might be cooked? Take a look at their 90, 95 and 100 degree numbers. On most lists 1993, 2010 and 2022 are the three hottest summers there, I lived through 1993 it was the first time I was forced to use air conditioning, it was unbearably hot.

Yes, this is why I always say we should define normal as within one standard deviation, rather than a single *average* number. Don't get me started on that, TCC and I both hate that word *average* lol.

More STEIN incoming...

Very similar to why south Florida doesn’t see the type of 100 degree heat you see in Texas. We are years from seeing a Florida climate here but the halmarks are starting.

I also wouldn't put much stock into the 1986-1995 era, which shows tons of big heat. The HO-83 had a significant warm bias. See: Inside the HO83 Hygrothermometer « Climate Audit Here is comparative data from Lincoln, NE, for 1991 & 1992, comparing readings from the HO-83 versus a newly installed ASOS. There was only 1 day where the HO-83 max was lower than the ASOS. On one date, it was 7 degrees warmer! We have to remember our ability to measure temperature today is better than at any point in history. As almost any bias results in a warmer temperature [except for poor calibration, which could go either way, and shading, which introduces a cool bias], this naturally makes it more difficult to reach these lofty readings with regularity. Shading is probably a bigger issue today. I know NYC doesn't comply with setbacks and I see trees around a lot of sites.