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3-6 is warning Criteria! Lol. I think you went a little conservative I have it at 4-8.

I don’t know as the models are already very cold with MB normal in the NE, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest for the 10 days that start with the start of phase 8 on 12/3: 6Z GEFS: 0Z EPS:

He's not wrong on the merits - it makes sense that marginal events like these would be impacted and have the r/s line be further NW than it would be in the absence of global warming. I know it's a meteorology vs climatology argument, but there's possibly still some connection. Either way, I'll plan for a day of work tomorrow - and maybe still get lucky with a delayed opening.

I love how he says it like you’ve cleaned up recently lol.

Here it is, snowfans: my Storm Outlook Map for Tuesday's #winterstorm! I expect a tight gradient between very little & a half foot of snow across eastern PA & northern NJ. Areas N/W of I-81 should receive a plowable snowfall, but <1" is more likely south of Rt. 30 & east of I-83.

Storm threads shouldn’t be started till the day before at the earliest. I enjoyed my coating yesterday, I’m ready for a cold Rainer here in Western Berks

This will be a complaining about the complaining post but I swear there are 3-6 people here who suck all the fun out of this hobby and this place

meh how'd those physics work out for you

Fast moving, not super dynamic and marginal temperature profiles in early December. Not the greatest recipe for widespread SNE snows. We’ll see what happens, but the GFS sort of had this one sniffed out. I’m hoping the mesos don’t continue to warm the mid levels.

Sure. Event hasn’t even started but let’s just say it’s over. Maybe then the people that post in this thread will be the ones who are happy to see a couple flakes

Well at least we are all used to this by now, shouldn’t really surprise anyone. By tonight it’ll show rain in Poconos. How do they say…wash,rinse, repeat

The ARW’s are very warm as well. I understand them overall biased cold so I find that interesting.

Yup right on queue for the Christmas Torch

it’s December 1 today but week 1 is done. So really it’s December 8 for our purposes.

so the storm tomorrow is now rain up to Kingston. The storm Friday disappeared. Now we’re in mid December. Great.

Or at the very least a few more snowblower purchases.

Parade of clippers would be nice to see for once.

Pretty soon, it will be. Winters fly…

Ray is on the line too. I know it’s tough. I hate to see anyone get screwed. But can’t let it get to you. If it did, I’d be 6 feet under.

Shall we stick the fork in?

Yeah right. Because the pattern ahead is offering so much opportunity . This one hurts

I'm trying to figure out what Ray's doin' in the same bathroom where Kevin's taking a bath

The biggest things is getting into climatology that supports snow in the valleys. It is well within precedent to snow, but the likelihood is just lower until we hit mid-December. This is a good pattern, but just a bit too early in the season as the cold just isn't as deep.

So we can’t have some fun? I have a lot of experience with this since 2022. Just have to go along with it. At least it’s 12/2 and not 2/2.

Glad you’re getting enjoyment from this . Noted