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64, an east wind and drizzle. Never a better August day Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Completely agree here ... I said this myself yesterday or the day before. Consideration of straight up climatology, we've topped the curve thus we must be descending. You know it's my fault? ha. Seriously though, I'm the one that first coined that expression like 15 years ago ...'summer's back is broken,' and now I hate it. Perfect. However, I don't take anything in here 'literally', nothing from the social media-sphere for that matter. Most of the time I pass over it and let it be/choose not to involve in it. There's no one to defend someone in here - no one comes to anyone's rescue. So I'm saying this shit in my own defense: I post vastly more Meteorological conjecture/information in here compared to the amount of ongoing back-and-forth semantic chicanery ... So once in a while, when reading someone pushing across a concept as fact , when it's merely what they want/bias, it's hard to resist responding - if that's a failing, meh. There's worse representations among humanity. And if for nothing else, it's fun to shatter their illusions.

Drove north through the rain starting in Lavalette; ended south of New Brunswick. Hoping to get something in Chester as it is very dry.

0.19” overnight. Brings us to 4.11” on the month. Moisture from all the rain recently is causing a good deal of morning fog

Check out the lighting aligning with the dry slot. Notice there isn’t any around the core. Incredible shot!

DAYUM! SHE THICC!

1-2" here seems possible, but I'll go with .75 based on how the last month has gone.

Up to 0.23" of rain this morning. Still a steady drizzle. 65.5F

Wide view

The minimum SLP has dropped as the models predicted. It’s down to 948 mb SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 73.7W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

I think this is 3 years in a row with a Category 5 Hurricane breaking records for date / time / location that to me is enough for pause and wonder as we track hurricanes. Tracking Hurricanes is more than just watching them barrel onshore if it comes to that, but rather learning from them to see how they track, what most effects their track and how it is connected to the overall world climate picture, weather patterns, and even ocean currents.

That dry air entrainment will cap any potential strengthening but with shear low and pressure falls this thing is continuing to grow in size

Just uniquely stunning this morning.

Any Maine surfers here? I know there are other surfers/snowboarders, etc., fishing and boating people. I am mostly in Rhode Island, but also have/will all over Cape Cod, North Shore Mass., South Shore, Mass. Here is the NOAA wave/wind model for a couple of days hence...simply doesn't get any better, at least over past 30 years (and no, I am not worried about "jinxing" or attracting people to certain spots...the ocean will take care of itself):

Heaviest is Sop. Maybe near pike as farther north I think. But even NoP gets decent drink.

Seems like most places get .50 or so and some narrow strip north of pike into SNH sees 2-3”

To be quite honest, other than Erin not being an annular cat 5 truck tire monster like Isabel, there are a lot of similarities. Its post-peak progression has been about the same and other than slamming headfirst into obx it’s swinging wide right by 150 miles. Current structure reminds me of Isabel a lot when it came into NC

Hopefully today is the start of some cooler temperatures because the last week has been brutal. The Heat this past 3-5 days has been downright disrespectful!!! On a positive note, the 10-day outlook does look good with low temps in the low 60's next week and highs in the low 80's. It's almost football time in Tennessee!

Relax you’ll get a decent drink.

sometimes you take what is said here way to literally. Like, "back broken" is not a metrological term, I am pretty sure everyone here is aware of that. and I am pretty sure that 99% of the posters here understand that since it is mid-August, there are likely to be some hot days before the end of the year. now my interpretation of back broken means that MOST of the HHH days are behind us, with some cooler (no DIT, I am not forecasting 30's) days and nights. and that interpretation also means that YES, I expect some hot days too. Like you said, it is all very subjective

So dreary! Hope we see some sun today. Looking out the windows at the gym yesterday seeing trees with half their leaves on the ground due to the extreme drought here along with the gray sky made it look like November

It’s like a hybrid PRE Anyway, nice to see some rain here. Wish it was an hour later but won’t complain.

Same. Up to 0.60” on the month.

Not really a PRE

When you scroll over on pivotal I found a 10.52 max. Doubt it happens but would ve some epic flooding