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I thought we would be left out also. Have had the same conditions here. Was surprised to see us on the far east end of it.

No reason to think next winter will be much different than the last winter or the last several. Enso may not be a big player this year, so I’d lean more on the pdo and polar domain. Qbo going negative, but solar may have already maxed. No idea yet.

It's been quite an active start to the season this year...I'm not sure if it's like top 5 but its been on the active side.

I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)

The CANSIPS and Euro seasonals have the PDO going to neutral w/ warmer SST temps moving closer to the coast of northern NA as winter progresses. The La Nina on both models is weak and/or trending to neutral as winter progresses. I could almost cut and paste last winter's forecast with one exception....the QBO is more favorable.

Crazy loud boomer here in Jeffersonton

It has been cloudy, with periods of rain, all day here. Not surprised to be left out of the watch. Good luck/stay safe everyone else!

I don’t think the a scenario 2 is going to happen unfortunately

Preliminary ideas. I look for a second winter of La Nina. Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall. The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall. A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid. The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory. Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting. To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol. Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer. By December, we should be hitting rock bottom. I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December. Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit. I have been taking a break and recharging. I have not looked at the EPO yet.

Severe thunderstorms in Culpepper.

Someone turn this rain off. I don't need any more at this juncture. I get about less then a quarter inch and it is sitting on top of the ground in my low lands. Since Friday I have received .87 and it is now 6:05 pm this Sunday. My garden is in the lowland and I had the tiller in there this morning before it rained again. The ground is extremely wet. And a few places ther was mud on the rototiller tires.

I swear I see some rotation on that one using the velocity scan.

I’ve been busy this week and was surprised to see Blewett pitching for the Os again. Sad and disappointed.

Was out in the burbs for a bday, lost power at a brewery for a bit, nice garden variety

I saw this and panicked a little, as a lot of my family is in Oklahoma still but thankfully not the SW part of the state. I still follow a meteorologist from the state on FB and yesterday he posted the worst stuff should be to the south so this tracks. Looks like the tornado warning in the NW corner of the TX panhandle is an active tornado. Seeing lots of active tornadoes in these storms this year.

Just light on/off showers 0.12”

Yes. Warm fronts are devious.

0.45 on the day so far

That would be amazing!

Is there a reason why my neighbor would be mowing his lawn every 2 to 3 days? He’s only 60 and retired so it could just boredom but maybe there is a good reason for mowing that frequently? i’m not going to ask him because I find it all a little annoying and he’ll probably detect that in my voice. edit: this is the same person, who will spend Sunny days in late February and early March, snowblowing snow from shady sections of the yard into sunny sections to melt it quicker.

Yeah this is brutal. Little Rock was even worse July '22. I think Arkansas is the worst overlay of actual air temp with humidity in the country.

That cell in Culpepper looks juicy

The showers moving east out of Jack County bear watching. They could potentially intensify to severe t'storms like the cells in Palo Pinto County, which would pose a problem for DFW.

This nearly maxes out reflectivity, tornado warning at this time

Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC363-082230- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0371.250608T2121Z-250608T2230Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 421 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Palo Pinto County in north central Texas... * Until 530 PM CDT. * At 421 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of Possum Kingdom Lake, or 22 miles northeast of Ranger, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Lake Palo Pinto around 445 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Brazos, Lone Camp, Santo, and New Salem. This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 378 and 389. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3279 9806 3251 9807 3251 9809 3267 9857 3286 9858 TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 287DEG 16KT 3274 9846 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Stalley