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49 here

There’s sort of two parts to this. The first is tomorrows afternoon into early Sunday with a deformation axis between the developing coastal and the northern stream shortwave. That seems fairly uniform on guidance? Then the second part is rain from the coastal. That still is uncertain and overnight runs definitely lowered the odds of the big 1”+ amounts.

29.2F here A lot of 27 and 28 in my immediate area.

I caved, flipped the heat on just now, it was 59 downstairs. 29 degrees and still dropping, can I get to 28...

6z NAM is comical

Yes, 29 here, just down the road from there currently. KMGJ is a good radiation spot.

37F in Hastings.

Oh the heartache if this were winter.

30F here just before dawn. Went straight past first frost to sub freezing.

last 2 nights did not get as cold in the city as was predicted..

days n days

We always want the capture and tilt to occur as far to our southwest as possible. Otherwise we're living on the edge, and that's not good.

Currently 34 at the Mesonet. 38 at my house

38f. Fake cold. Colder yesterday Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Bad week for Pa.sports! 29 degrees first frost of the season.

Okay, now you post a pic of yourself, and we can all compare. now, back to the weather!

Also euro guidance takes that s/w over the lakes and moves it over us which blocks how far north it can get. My gut says that the main issue is keeping this further south and helping to reduce impacts, but still time i guess.

Gfs is a good hit. Not sure why everyone said it’s south. Euro and AI and NAM redevelop it south of New England and then rip it back west like some guidance showed yesterday. Definitely not in agreement with the interaction of a piece of moisture NW of Jerry. Need to get euro and AI more north for anything real meaningful I think. NAM is high impact, but when is it not lol.

5am temp here is 37 on top of the hill. Pequest, Sandyston and Walpack up in NW Sussex 28, 28 and 25 respectively. Mid 30’s down in the Pine Barrens. Ideal radiational cooling with low lying rural locations cashing in on coldest temperatures.

There are differences in timing/location of the northern stream vorticity digging southeastward from the GLs. GFS involves it more and sooner than the Euro. Seems to capture the southern piece of energy, encouraging a more consolidated surface low with a track more westward.

Well, the Euro remains the King....

Montgomery: 28.

Down to 25 we take!

The mid-month cool shot is basically up in smoke now. Relentless AN with a deeply BN west looks like it's going to be the basic pattern for at least a few more weeks.

This is becoming a legit option on the table. Doing the QPF tonight, that was evident. AIFS continues to have a theme of a split SLP with a primary near NC with a secondary to the northeast over the Gulf stream, occluding moving westward before weakening. There could be a QPF min between the evolution, so something to monitor closely. Winds are going to be there regardless, so the coast will get battered no matter the evolution.