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Preliminary scoring for November 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL hudsonvalley21 __________ 62 _ 38 _34 _ 134 _ 82 _76 _44 _202_ 336_ 44 _70 _64 _ 178 ___ 514 BKViking _________________ 64 _ 48 _40 _ 152 _100_68 _56 _224_ 376_ 42 _78 _80 _ 200 ___ 576 so_whats_happening _____68 _ 42 _22 _ 132 _ 92 _62 _62 _216 _ 348_ 48 _88 _86 _ 222 ___ 570 Tom ______________________ 68 _ 54 _46 _ 168 _ 98 _68 _54 _220_ 388_ 38 _82 _76 _ 196 ___ 584 wxallannj _________________ 70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 64 _90 _78 _232_ 392_ 62 _92 _90 _ 244 ___ 636 RJay ______________________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 96 _90 _70 _256 _ 416_ 76 _90 _96 _ 262 ___ 678 Scotty Lightning __________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 90 _70 _50 _210 _ 370 _ 10 _60 _70 _ 140 ___ 510 ___ consensus ____________ 70 _ 54 _46 _ 170 _ 90 _68 _56 _214 _ 384 _ 42 _88 _86 _ 216 ___ 600 yoda ______________________70 _ 54 _48 _ 172 _ 88 _66 _58 _212 _ 384 _ 44 _88 _86 _ 218 ___ 602 DonSutherland1 __________ 74 _ 54 _46 _ 174 _ 82 _80 _64 _226 _ 400 _60 _90 _88 _ 238 ___ 638 ___ Normal ________________90 _ 70 _60 _ 220 _ 80 _60 _20 _160 _ 380 _ 00 _40 _70 _ 110 ___ 490 RodneyS __________________98 _ 68 _66 _ 232 _ 90 _30 _58 _178 _ 410 _ 66 _ 60_100_ 226 ___ 636 Roger Smith ______________ 82 _ 98 _94 _ 274 _ 34 _00 _38 _072 _ 346 _ 30 _90 _86_ 206 ___ 552 Ephesians2 _______________ 80 _ 90 _90 _ 260 _ 30 _30 _50 _ 110 _ 370 _ 40 _80 _70 _ 190 ___ 560 wxdude64 ________________ 66 _ 70 _ 86 _ 222 _ 14 _ 10 _12 _ 036 _ 258 _ 10 _56 _88 _ 154 ___ 412 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___100 _ 58 _ 28 _ 186 _ 38 _66 _96 _ 200 _ 386 _ 48 _58 _60 _ 166 ___ 552 --------------- EXTREME FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS _ On current projections, wins for Roger Smith (second lowest forecasts) and losses for wxdude64 (lowest forecasts), would change to wins if actual values are below -2.2). ATL, IAH _ On current projections, wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts. DEN _ On current projection, win for RJay (highest forecast) PHX _ too close to call at this point, may be a win-loss situation or a straight win. DCA, ORD, and SEA currently not extreme forecasts. (forecasts) FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 ---------------

Thanks

That long range thread is always….

I didn’t pick up on this earlier and don’t know if anyone else posted this. Today’s GEFS has phase 8 starting on Dec 8th, which is about 5 days earlier than any other run:

18z Euro a little further north again. Totals around N. IN and SW. MI includes the lake effect from Thursday.

The 12z GFS, Euro & Canadian each brought some type of Winter weather chance between the 2nd & the 5th. Hopefully we are tracking a specific winter chance while we enjoy the holiday weekend.

Wednesday looks awfully windy. Gusts up to 50 mph across much of the sub.

Don't forget Lucy...

That happens I am flyin back to DCA just to see that once in a million year hyper blizzard!

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1___________+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8 ___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5 Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included). DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date.

Yeah let’s get the Mohawk back in the avatar and pretend it’s the late 2000s Decembers when SWFEs were a dime a dozen.

Not the best harbinger for winter weenies https://www.wmur.com/article/rare-bird-sighting-portsmouth-nh-11232025/69522743 “The species typically breeds in Europe and winters in tropical Africa. This is the first recorded sighting in New Hampshire.”

Bring the Mohawk back. Days of yore.

BWI: 8.5" DCA: 6.2" IAD: 9.9” RIC: 4.7” ----- SBY: 12.4”

What can Vocanic Winter share about possible Hawaiian volcanos and Mount Rainier tremblings?

Very Glad you’re on the mend pal!

Today's weather is what I want for more than one day in a row. Looks like Wednesday is the last day of nice temps before the Nina cold/dry returns. Hoping the end of the week is at least sunny.

1st day of the season for me today at Killington. Snow was pretty darn good quality for November. Some nice soft bumps on Snowden. 13K vertical to get those ski legs going!! .

Hey, we don’t judge.

It’s been a rough few years personally but I’m on the mend and feeling a lot better. Hate the cold now but will track for the love of the chase.

Reality will be nothing like that map, so no need to fret.

We knew

Just call it “leg” or “lower body” and be done with it