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A major storm recently hit western Alaska, causing huge impacts and damage to coastal communities. https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2025/10/storm-catastrophe.html?m=1

I agree that it was overplayed.

It seems like whenever we get a -NAO episode in the Fall, someone goes on with strong correlations about how the Winter is going to be cold. The fact is, the data since 1948 shows that October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation between the monthly and Winter (DJFM) NAO state. Now, over 200 years, not 76, that might not be true.. It makes sense that the same pattern would run forward, but as it stands now an Oct -NAO is not a big sign for a cold Winter.. I'd look more to see if the Pacific is in -EPO/+PNA in October.

There was actually a big +PDO in the Fall of 1995. A +PDO/east-based Nina is actually a very cold Winter composite in the Northeast. I've also found that the ENSO subsurface is more important than surface SSTs (Kelvin/Rossby waves, and their impact on the N. Hemisphere pattern)... ENSO subsurface was Neutral in 95-96, not La Nina, so there was more space for a Winter +PNA to develop and persist.

See my updated first post above for additional details. I'm ready to start getting people on-boarded into the system.

For a second, I thought a weenie already started this year’s thread.

The key feature for the early Jan blizzard was a strong NA block, along with an uncharacteristically strong low(for a Nina) that developed in the GoM. It was actually a moderate Nina. Common misconception that it was weak Nina, and I posted about this last winter. Weak Ninas usually suck bigtime for the greater DC area- last winter was a rare exception, but hopefully its a new norm.

Oh yeah I think it is coming for sure. Im not worried at all about a warm October.

I don't understand what you're saying. How can a 30 year normal be anything other than the average of the previous 30 years of temperatures?

It's coming! Of note, one of the analog years I keep seeing being mentioned for this upcoming winter is 2013-2014. That ended up being a good winter for us. KAVL temperatures for that October were relatively warm with mid-70's all the way into late October. Just something to keep an eye on.

20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying...

Lorenzo fought valiantly but, RIP

Every source hyped the nor'easter up. It wasnt limited to what you are posting about here. I get where you are coming from, but 100% legitimate sources did the same in this case. Some will even argue it did verify if you lived on the coast or long Island, but the hype was originally for a more widespread storm.

^busy season coming up for you

Maybe chill on this until we get fantasy GFS snow

Getting back in the gym.

Why does my tree look like it was burned?

Exceptional events are low probability events. One can't continually call for low probability events and expect anything but a low probability of verification. Unfortunately, social media is populated by sites and accounts that seek clicks and attention, many of which have little or no understanding of model limitations, local/regional climatology, what is an extreme solution/outlier, the general nature of outliers, etc. That's a big problem for the weather community, as credible forecasters are drowned out by the noise and the credibility of the community is undercut when the extreme ideas typically don't verify. But, at least for now, social media is the "Wild West" of forecasting with no barriers to entry and no screening for quality.

CFS continues to love the idea of a mid-November coastal bringing us wintry precip.

As Walt Drag noted above, blocking continues so expect some more storms and rains...definitely not like last year's bone dry fall

I didn't really rain too much with the Nor'Easter in the D1 and D2 shades to make a dent.

Didn’t realize NJ was so dry

I'm ready!

Pitchers and catchers report in 119 days

Yall might not get a frost until November. It's happened before.