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WB 12Z EURO total precip is making PA folks unhappy compared to 6Z.

I’d like to trade in my sleet for what’s behind door #1.

There have been three this year locally. Where do you get these stats from? What exactly do you consider locally?

Canadian kills the inland low off quick and has a better high. Good signs and it's been trending this way for several runs. https://twitter.com/weatherwilly/status/2014739725769191653?s=20

Looking like a good Euro run.

New York City - 6Boston - 12Philadelphia - 6Washington DC - 3Hartford - 9Albany - 11

Phoenix's expanded UHI is clearly skewing their numbers towards more record warm months. Flagstaff is currently not close to their warmest Jan on record, which was 2003.

Yep, and it is a bit colder. I appreciated 12z for what we’re looking for here.

The AI one doesn't have that option (unless it's just a Pivotal Weather thing). The regular EC is still running.

Well, just that the surface temp wouldn’t be as cold before the storm and it would be easier to push the warm air in. Just wondering if this could be a concern.

AIEuro. Seems we are losing qpf 1/10th at a time but increasing ratios

Perhaps its a more ..."efficient" transfer of the primary to the costal low. That seems to be driving the earlier/faster evolution/colder/more southern solutions

This would be classic. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

30 mph winds? Unexpected. Does anyone think the NWS pulls the Blizzard lever?

Not a met but fortunately that high of a nose 750-800mb can allow refreezing of droplets in time for sleet to be the ptype. Lower noses around 900mb don’t allow that.

That warm layer on your sounding is 5-10kft. Far above 3,000 but plenty of room to refreeze into sleet

Done. I can finally do my Ric Flair impersonation with flabby moobs and leathery skin. And instead of WOOOOO I'll be saying OWWWWWWW My back!

@Mount Joy Snowman.Maybe you didn't realize the proximity fused thing was my light, harted way of me asking you a question. What's your plans with my elevation or were you just more or less just curious ?

I can already tell "I'd rather be in Chicago" is gonna become part of the forum vocabulary. But anyway, that trend makes me feel good. Cannot hurt to have the Euro AI trending our way close to game time.

12PM GSP UPDATE:

Need to see the Kuchera map

Euro is marginally colder, but within the moe for noise. I'd love to see Pivotal soundings for 16-17z Sunday. @yoda?

Euro was kind of the model the most "in the middle" so it makes sense it would change the least as we get convergence among the others...