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good find Jimmy!

If it pulls moisture off the Atlantic what is the water temperature to be able to an “ocean effect” increase or is that even a thing?

While there have been notably boring stretches this season, I think the floor would be a “C” grade locally. Tracking fairly well on days with snow cover, measurable days, # of significant events, and progress towards seasonal total. Without the once-in-a-lifetime November, this would be a much different story. But it’s nice not to look down the pipe and expect another “F”.

That's a biggun on the GEFS.

GFS not going to go quietly down yet. Needs to gain more support. CMC is the closet to it at the moment to supporting gfs...

Didn't most of the City see 10-12" an they lowered their forecast multiple times in 24 hrs leading up to the storm

Would be nice to get the Euro suite on board. Need a 100 mile bump west on it.

I'm more interested in the 18z Wed - 12z run Thursday to see if there is agreement or consensus in the models for setup and path. As of right now I'd say my confidence for a large scale area wide blockbuster is probably only at 15% right now but that is solely based on past runs and current ensemble members.

This looks frigid for us. .

GFS be batting below the Mendoza line

You forgot to post the GEFS...

Let's see what Dr. AI NO says

Here we come

After their 12-18" calls 24 hours ahead of Sundays storm? No, that cannot be taken for granted any longer.

chief met john davitt of ny 1 was on wnyc discussing the storm; he happens to be a total weenie....says we are going to freeze for a few weeks here.

^Also, that analysis is all for nothing if we begin to trend towards the recent Euro runs. This was just to show how close we were to a big solution on the 18z GFS

This could be ORF the charts, so RICh in potential, but keep your eye on the BALL because you may be more FROzen than CHOsen. Your snow gauge may be PHL or empty, and I may ACY this forecast or you may end up complaining to the BOS that I did not PVD good guidance. I won't LYH this is a tough one. There hasn't been one this tough since ABE Lincoln called the Blizzard of 1857 before he turned to politics. I couldn't think of a pun for DCA sorry. ISP we all slip on this stuff. EWR saying?

Some big hitters boyz

GEFS mean is a huge storm for eastern folks and a moderate storm even for western NE. Edit: 4seasons beat me to it

Latest National Blend run fwiw. V5 is further SE but still clips SE MA with .5-1.25 Big Bump NW on the 18Z GEFS, theres also a lot more of a spread NW of the mean this time.

Double barrel lows are actually common in these setups and that's something the GFS has been trying to show in its evolution. This setup is very complex and will include these types of variables whenever it materializes.

You’re here to watch all the models. You most definitely will look at it again and like it!

Totally agree! this is where the lee-side enhancement could really take off.

the best part of the kocin book is the chapter on near misses...there's one intense ice storm that looks incredible. in any case, the media is honking already and people are talking.....

GFS doing heavy lifting on that number, but not totally on an island. .