All Activity

2-3” here and getting a very heavy snow shower now with perfect growth

Yes the grid is a big problem in the US. Link below is a long thread on the US vs China grid. We aren't competitive, as an illustration per chart below, China gets 25x the payback from grid investment dollars. The thread doesn't mention batteries, which can mitigate grid investment somewhat. The developing global south, with abundant local solar, may avoid heavy grid investment. https://x.com/NiyerEnergy/status/2032265048723259781

Man, we do get some blocking, but some of the models are like totally Stein with it because it’s strong.The

Looks like we had a light dangerous dusting last night.

Boredom.

Yes fossil fuels are energy dense, but that is only one aspect of the comparison and its not very important; i.e. renewables are cheaper despite lower energy density. The energy density of solar is higher than the energy density of civilization; i.e., roofs, parking lots, etc could power our cities. Your chart of India and China reflects the past not the present, yes CO2 use grew rapidly as both countries industrialized. However, coal use has peaked in both countries. Oil has peaked in China; and, China's CO emissions decreased last year. India is only beginning to use EVs; but, EV use is ramping.

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS...VIRGINIA...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Discussion... A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong wind fields aloft. A surface low move from Lower MI into southern Quebec, with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern PA, VA, and NC by around 21Z. Ahead of this trough/front, southerly winds will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast PA. Storms will likely be ongoing along the length of the cold front, roughly from OH to the FL Panhandle Monday morning. Given the uncapped air mass over the Carolinas, a few storms, possibly supercells, may develop relatively early in the day as well, with tornado potential. The greatest threat however will be during the afternoon as cold front nears, and pressure falls are maximized along with daytime heating. A few supercells ahead of the line will be possible, along with embedded circulations and/significant damaging winds within the squall line. There are model differences regarding the speed/position of the cold front, as well as the degree of instability. Regardless, damaging winds over a large area appear likely, along with at least a few tornadoes. Depending on the degree of destabilization, a strong tornado or two may occur especially over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia during the late afternoon. Many models forecast 300-500 m2/s2 SRH, along with pockets of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which is clearly favorable for tornadic supercells.

People worried the Apple weather app is too hyperbolic with snow amounts could never appreciate the OG. Glad I got to see this bad boy throw up a 49 spot for me before it’s retired. .

This wasn't a bad forecast from Upton

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

An El Nino is likely to develop by the Summer of 2026. The ENSO subsurface is very warm Since 1985, the most extreme ENSO subsurface anomalies for this time of the year, 8/10 (80%) became favored warm/cold ENSO state later that year. The CPC on March 12 has put up an El Nino watch for 2026: Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion They are giving an 80% chance that August-Sept-Oct (peak Hurricane season) will be El Nino In 1995, a positive phase to the AMO cycle began, and a major uptick in Atlantic Hurricane activity occurred. Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states (using the RONI): El Nino (7 years): 12.1 TS, 5.0 Hurr, 2.6 MH Neutral (11 years): 16.1 TS, 8.0 Hurr, 3.4 MH La Nina (13 years): 17.4 TS, 8.4 Hurr, 4.3 MH Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) El Nino has been associated with much lower activity, and that occurs back to 1950 and before. Since 1995, Strongest 3 El Nino's (ASO>+1.2): (3 years): 10.3 TS, 3.7 Hurr, 1.7 MH Since 1995, Weakest 4 El Nino's (ASO<+1.1): (4 years): 13.5 TS, 6.0 Hurr, 3.3 MH So, there has been a pretty big difference between the El Nino being weaker or stronger for the Hurricane season in terms of total activity. It's important to monitor ENSO going forward, current projections are probably right around +1.0 ASO RONI. AMO CPC AMO Index stopped updating January 2023 I made a raw and smoothed graph of the AMO 1995 to Jan 2023: Raw Smoothed In Summer/Fall 2023, the Atlantic was record warm, and then Summer/Fall 2024 was warmer than that. They were the #2 and #1 AMO Seasons on record, so the trend continues to be Up-general, although the 2025 Season was much colder Atlantic SSTs. Record warm SSTs in 2023 helped 20 Named Storms occur (4th highest all time) in a +1.1c ASO El Nino. Last season (2025) was a colder AMO in Weak La Nina, and had 13 Named Storms, 4 Major Hurricanes. Anomalies in a bunch Something that we have seen in the past few seasons is Top 1% Rapid Intensification with certain storms. 2023 - Lee 2024 - Milton (honorable mention to Beryl, the earliest Cat 5 on record) 2025 - Erin and Mellisa What are some other indicators to how active the season will be? April-May Atlantic Sea-level pressure Since 1995, the most active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons minus the least active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons, have this preceding April-May sea-level pressure anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere -AO and -NAO in April-May precedes more active Atlantic Hurricane seasons +AO and +NAO in April-May precedes less active Atlantic Hurricane seasons Atlantic SSTs Current global SSTA [time sensitive] Never too early to start discussing! Thoughts? Related Discussions:

I work at WPC, so I don't have any internal holdings with LWX. I do know multiple mets at the office though!

Everything coated up about .75 here we take!!

...or use uber helicopter to my fly to my yard.

3/4" from midnight to 2AM.

Yeah here too. As I lay here with power out unable to sleep because my neighbors generator is obnoxiously noisy. He just got it installed last week. I can't believe how loud it is. My power just came back and his generator is still running.

Ok, I saw a different graph at another time.

They have 3 inches. Average is 56 inches .

Salt Lake City, UT has 0.1" snow for the year. #2 lowest for them on record is in the 20's. That's going to hold through at least the 3rd week of March.

Great news! It appears that BWI will be going with 1” for this event. I do think the airport may have gotten a few tenths more but this is good enough IMO. I don’t know if any LWX mets who are in charge of these records read this board (MillvilleWx maybe?), but I do appreciate them following through what I recommended and so I have to give them credit where it’s due. The reason why I cared so much is because this was an extraordinary event and I want the official record to reflect how it unfolded - from a midnight high of 76 to accumulating snow in the same day.

Alot of records will be broken in the west.

looks promising for a blizzard

1.6" and winding down.

.25” 30°