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  1. Past hour
  2. donsutherland1
    Clouds will increase tomorrow holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours. Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -24.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.530 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  3. dailylurker
    I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Been working on the Pacific....2009 is actually damn good extra tropical Pacific analog.
  5. Baroclinic Zone
    Today was that early chill of fall impending. Low 50s and low dews. topped out at 80f today with dews in the 50s.
  6. GramaxRefugee
    Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F.
  8. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  9. WxUSAF
    One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled.
  10. vortex95
    And it shows solid destabilization despite lots of clouds. You can do a lot more for CAPE by adding to the dew point than temp per deg. GFS has DCA 69 dew point at 15z up to 74 by 00z. Also it backs the sfc winds to SSE. This is w/ WNW winds at 500 so that's over 90 deg veering sfc-500. That should mean robust supercells. Speed shear is common here but good directional shear is not so this may be a best tor risk of the year so far Sunday.
  11. Today
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?
  13. Eskimo Joe
    The Canadian tries to paint a 2" - 3.5" stripe of rainfall right along Mason-Dixon tomorrow afternoon. South of I-70 is less than an inch.
  14. BrianW
    Man.. going to be a ton of dirty hippys in the Pioneer Valley this week with river levels low. Haha. My hippy aunt in Ashfield said the same thing about river levels.
  15. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  16. smokeybandit
    Western Parker and Aurora getting the heavy rains today.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    That's a recipe for someone to get soaked.
  18. powderfreak
    First day that felt a bit more like fall. 67F off a high of 70F… Partly sunny, dews 48-52F.
  19. vortex95
    1030pm last night. Dang! Ton of CGs as well.
  20. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  21. jaxjagman
    NFL Sunday ticket is strange on YOUTUBE.I got my daughter to sign up so i can watch Jacksonville because shes a student.It dont ask you nothing but your age,so i got it half price..lol.
  22. dailylurker
    Thanks for all the bad news lol. I appreciate everyone here. Snow camp is open to visitors. The positive note is I'm on top of the Tug. I'll have elevation on my side.
  23. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  24. batmanbrad
    As of this morning's output, they seem to be holding onto the 5-10% TOR for our area tomorrow...
  25. stormy
    Historically, be patient until September/October.
  26. vortex95
    18z RRFS is the same. Both models show more than one wave of storms after the AM convection. I like the significant sfc dew point advection tomorrow aftn over the region
  27. nvck
    gonna head up there soon bc i've got nothing better to do, but concern atm is that the best LL shear is displaced north of the best thermos
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