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A headlined potential with ensuing discussion is being frowned upon? Someone needs to get over themselves... @wdragI appreciate your efforts every time I guess it doesn't matter for some but there's that one time that you step around the north side of a building, or what have you, and that unexpected patch of slipperiness bites you in the ass and you go down. Sidewalks are hard

Basically what I feared when making this thread. Most of SNE shut out with nothing imminent to track until 12/6 at best

Unless this ends up as a total model failure inside of 30 hours, you're pretty much a lock for 8"+

They are kind of good at that kind of prediction. Just like the 2-6” predictions

HRRR wants to do exactly that, and make this an I70 special

Both Nam's looks good.

Change of GEFS AO/NAO forecasts shows how clueless they can be: is it in this case related to the 11/28/25 major SSW?? 1. AO Just 3 days ago: ~+1 for 2nd wk of Dec Today: ~-1 for 2nd wk of Dec! 2. NAO Just 3 days ago: slight +NAO 2nd wk of Dec Today: slight -NAO 2nd wk of Dec

The cold rain will tear down the grid in Braintreesurgeon

Someone at the NWS must be trolling now... or just plain dumbass

I am staying retired for now, but I reserve the right to return like prime MJ if things start to get ugly. I’m watching you. All of you.

I’m ok with not losing power. If I do I have to drive 45 miles out of my way instead of working from home

We foot!

You have no idea how happy I am. I was totally miserable the past four months at that other company since I left.

If December ends up a solid -PNA/RNA month, then there is good evidence you provided for a +PNA January. And if it really does happen then kudos to Ray on his December forecast

EPS says, "What Dec 5-6 event?"

NAM clown gives me a foot (less than earlier runs) but I toss that

It’s pretty clear someone is definitely losing power and probably for a few days at least. Heavy wet snow and then temps drop into the upper 20s, perfect recipe. I guess if it’s more like 5 to 8 it wouldn’t be as bad, but any more than that could have issues for sure.

Dendy FTW

hello there, I don't think they do, not one model shows a flake for NYC! At least not that I seen, maybe i'm wrong!

NAMS both moving NW with the snow which is not a surprise in this setup

Back end snow rarely works out. Don't hang your hat on that.

I hope I have the correct sun angle for my rain tomorrow

Nam is a crush job in SNH.

I also want to point out an aspect ( that I'm sure no one will acknowledge haha). I'm noticing this is trying to be weaker as it gets closer in the guidance. This is an aspect that I have been advertising ... because it is a coherent bias in all guidance, really. Regardless of Euro this and Ukmet that, and JMA to NAVGEM and back... as I've mentioned all but ad nauseam in the past, there's something like a variable % in reduction of systemic prominence at go times. It's unclear why exactly, but ignore at own peril. I'm honing in a testable assumption. Anyway, it's variable, but more times than not there's some loss coming down the stretch with these things. Perhaps this will be one of the lower % gypping (ha!), and if the NAM is correct with its oversensitivity to cyclogenesis/strength then so be it. But, this run is losing/lost something and with it ... there's probably dynamical reduction and the sfc/900 layer is marginally warmer.

I don’t expect it to trend down. It’s not all WAA snow with a bunch of dry air in front of it like Saturday night was.