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The wildcard is the coastal-if that forms and starts to move NE the colder mid levels may stay for areas especially north of the city

We need to remember that the weather folks are going with information they have at the moment. Bottom line, there is the good chance this could be a bad ice storm. They cannot ignore that fact at all. I would rather they overplay a storm than underplay it. It is like buying a generator last year. I hope I spent $800 and never had to use it again. The same with this storm. I hope I am prepared just in case. The best case scenario being, the hype was way overdone. People just need to go with the flow. Life is short people, enjoy the moment.

Hard to know since the run ends at 84. My takeaway is that it was colder overall vs. its 6Z run and our area is properly mauled before we lose the 850’s. It also tried with the coastal this run, but the primary made it just a bit too far north.

*Only through 12z

That 10 for immediate NYC region could be generous.

Chuck's old school.

No model run should be ignored. Each one is correct to even a tiny extent.

There is a real chance that many of us get more precipitation as sleet than snow, and that sucks.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

Snow/ sleet through 84

12Z NAM ZR totals are pretty high considering. Especially down here IMBY.

Euro and Canadian 0z have a monster storm next weekend.

Yep and I would not ignore it.

This reminds of the scene on the plane in the movie Con Air when Steve Buchemi’s character is commenting on another convict…he says, “That guy is so angry that moments of levity actually cause him pain, gives him headaches. Happiness for that man hurts.”

Convection Allowing Models

This is odd topic but the next weekend has potential to.

Damn Chuck, where’d you get that map?

From suppression to mixing in 24 hrs...lol At least we are getting the storm-suppression with 10 degree cold would have sucked royally

Need that confluence set up north.

Nam Drier?

12z NAM showing its warm bias has a foot of snow and then ice which would go back to snow.

seemed low but only goes through Sunday 7am

If this “busts” for the Carolina’s from an ice perspective the Mets who hyped this are going to have to have a reckoning. The snow idea is gone but this is an example where withholding anything but saying “potential for significant winter weather” would save a lot of egg on faces if this doesn’t pan out, which is a distinct possibility right now.

He’s comparing two different models, not two different runs of the same model.