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what vendor? weenievista? wxbell isnt out yet

EPS did trend colder, but need significantly colder air to get meaningful frozen precip. Would target mid-20s dewpoints in place at least leading up to the event. CAD over performing often means temps held in the upper 30s instead of torching to the 50s around here, without a strong high and decently cold source air. Both are kinda meh on consensus right now

9 Years Ago - Feb 9th, 2017 Blizzard Amazing storm. Extremely high confidence forecast. One of the few storms i can remember where there was extremely good run-run consistency on models and every model was on board for days. Had thundersnow with this event with 2-4"/hr rates during the day. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-9-2017

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

EPS has a signal. Waiting on AI EPS.

big

The warming during March has prevented several stations like EWR, NYC, and LGA from having another 10”+ snowstorm since 1993. March Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1843-05-01 to 2026-02-08 19.0 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-14 0 18.3 1956-03-17 through 1956-03-19 0 18.2 1956-03-18 through 1956-03-20 0 14.8 1958-03-20 through 1958-03-22 0 14.8 1958-03-19 through 1958-03-21 0 13.9 1960-03-03 through 1960-03-05 0 13.9 1960-03-02 through 1960-03-04 0 12.7 1993-03-13 through 1993-03-15 0 12.7 1993-03-12 through 1993-03-14 0 12.7 1956-03-19 through 1956-03-21 0 12.5 1960-03-01 through 1960-03-03 0 12.1 1941-03-08 through 1941-03-10 0 12.1 1941-03-07 through 1941-03-09 0 12.0 1941-03-06 through 1941-03-08 0 12.0 1917-03-02 through 1917-03-04 0 12.0 1852-03-17 through 1852-03-19 0 12.0 1852-03-16 through 1852-03-18 0 12.0 1852-03-15 through 1852-03-17 0 11.9 1993-03-11 through 1993-03-13 0 11.5 1896-03-15 through 1896-03-17 0 11.5 1896-03-14 through 1896-03-16 0 11.2 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-17 through 1867-03-19 0 11.0 1867-03-16 through 1867-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-15 through 1867-03-17 0 10.5 1861-03-19 through 1861-03-21 0 10.5 1851-03-07 through 1851-03-09 0 10.5 1851-03-06 through 1851-03-08 0 10.1 1917-03-03 through 1917-03-05 0 9.5 1958-03-18 through 1958-03-20 0

Euro has a snow event during our torch. Sorry @aldie 22

Eps favors Canadian

It would come into CT mid afternoon . Ends near midnight

Youve never had an outdoor job i presume

Yup it was a couple days of real warmth…pushed 80 degrees as you said(I remember my truck temp swung 82) …and the year before, 2017 had a big torch in Feb too around the same time. One of those February’s, 17 or 18, we had the huge warmth, and then 24hrs later it was snowing. It was amazing.

What was so funny about it tho? Why did it make you loudly cackle?

I don't doubt it true..... the "LOL" wasn't even to poke the bear. I legit laughed out loud when I read that post. I am pretty sure the neighbors heard me.

By classic, do you mean Chuck Berry, Page or Hendrix?

im curious what the eps/AIeps will look like

WB 12Z Euro and Ai at 7 pm Sunday. Maybe they meet in the middle....

Which results in some major differences lol. Euro 12z precip Euro AI 12z precip (it's faster so slightly earlier panel)

oh god i forgot about the dancing sharks. what silliness.

Depending on what you look at, maybe a quick short burst around 5PM Tues and then a longer, steadier from 8PM-12AM or so on Tuesday night Blink and you might miss it

March will be rockin'

better than 00Z, models are all over the place with this one right now. A south strung out whiff appears more likely on the table imo than anything. AI has been consistently on the south train for a while, at this range we're gonna see a lot of shifting on ops for the next few days.

EURO kind of similar to the CMC dropping that PV fragment ( I dunno what else to call it?) Friday night across the region. Helps bring a reinforcing shot of cold air. I think it would be more interesting if we could speed up the system to take better advantage of this since it will be so marginal anyway.

What’s the timing on this?

Definitely stronger signal this run.