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SLGT risk up... 0/5/15 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Central Park (31 days) has tied its July record for most 80F (26.7C) or above days. In addition, July 2025 is the second consecutive July with 31 such days, which sets a new record for most consecutive years. The only other years were 1944, 2022 and 2024.

Take a look at this YouTube vid from that South American ski resort.

JFK Airport (31 days) and Newark (31 days) have tied their July records for most 80F (26.7C) or above days. JFK Airport (2 consecutive years) and Newark (4 consecutive years) have their longest streaks of 31 80F (26.7C) or above July days. Neither site had ever had 2 consecutive such years before their current streaks.

The UKMET is back to having a TD form on the 0Z. But unlike yesterday’s 0Z, which developed the current central MDR wave that was moving NNW to threaten the SE US, this one forms on an old front just off the SE US coast. After forming, it crawls NNE to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast remaining as a TD: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 32.0N 75.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2025 96 31.4N 75.7W 1010 29 1200UTC 04.08.2025 108 32.1N 74.8W 1012 25 0000UTC 05.08.2025 120 32.1N 75.0W 1013 25 1200UTC 05.08.2025 132 33.1N 73.9W 1015 23 0000UTC 06.08.2025 144 34.3N 73.9W 1015 23 1200UTC 06.08.2025 156 35.7N 73.6W 1014 30 0000UTC 07.08.2025 168 37.6N 73.0W 1012 28 *Edit: 0Z Euro is a bit similar to 0Z UKMET but with just a very weak sfc low rather than a TD. It similarly goes up the US E coast just offshore and the toward Cape Cod and Maine.

Yeah BOX sent that one out

with 2" PW values? That's pretty tough to do. Our path to a SLGT is yesterday's 12Z HRRR or NAM Nest, with a semi-organized line arriving just after peak heating. The majority of the solutions this evening, which break out convection way early and not very organized, would likely only justify a MRGL for a few wet microburst events early in the event before it becomes a heavy rain situation.

Dry all day here. Heard (still hearing) thunder since early afternoon. Amazing how localized showers can be this time of year.

I saw the 32C 5 min obs, but not an official 90° yet unless BOX posted something.

Amazing news. SSMIS and similar polar-orbiting scans aren’t perfect, but they are the best Hurricane inner core analysis tool outside of in-situ observations and radar.

Supposed to play Friday afternoon. Probably gonna be one of those days where it's reasonable out by late morning but it's moot because the course never opened due to overnight rain.

that is wild

It was doing the same here but lately the thunderstorms have been hitting daily.

90F at 9:50p lol

Also a fan of these conditions, especially skiing, keeps the crowds in the lodge and the conditions crisp. You can dress for the cold; can't do that for heat/humidity

WB 0Z NBM for tomorrow. I hope it is even half correct....

Freakin Logan. lol Not sure if they snuck in 90° but they got 89°

Picked up .22 here this evening.

Should finish rather close to the hottest July and any month on record for Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. Looking at the current statewide numbers, I'm thinking 3rd place, perhaps even 2nd in Maryland. Maybe somewhat surprising looking only at the urban numbers, but a lot of rural and high elevation locations have cooked this month.

Really been short changed irt Rainfall here at my home east of Jonesville. Under 4 inches for the Month so far. Average is about 5.25". Just continues to develop all around us . It's as if we have a mini dome around here.

Have a golf outing tomorrow, shot gun start at 1 pm. Will probably be wet

Though 8/4-10 dropped due to no support likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, today’s Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole: % of 2005-24 averages: 8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.) 8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.) 8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.) 8/25-31: 110% (same as yest.) Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger!

Several evening hi-res runs now initiate storms in the area by early afternoon and possibly even a bit earlier.

That did well here on 7/10.

Interesting that some of the evening CAM guidance initiates convection in the area MUCH earlier than previous runs. This would probably wipe out most of the SVR threat, but it could lead to multiple rounds of storms that enhance the flooding threat.