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Happy Birthday. The models have an earlier frontal passage now on Friday. So the warmest 850s come through Thursday night. JFK is probably looking at 83-86°. As the 2mTs usually overperform guidance there on an offshore flow.

Sorry to hear that! My MIL had a slight leak on the hot water stop valve under her sink. Must have been leaking for weeks. Damaged the cabinet and carpet under the cabinets and had all kinds of nasty stuff that had to be cleaned up this weekend. Wet nasty Particleboard is the worst stuff to pull out......Good luck!

Still looks on target for a late month and October flip (Chuck’s -PDO/-ENSO link for October) to a warmer than normal pattern, also continued very dry. Once we get into October, if the dryness continues and it looks like it will, we will be approaching serious drought conditions

This is showing winds of 66 kph - so it's fast enough.

Interesting. Well, I know it's not tropical, but it is now showing winds up to 66 kph:

Nam has taken a couple of steps in the right direction the last couple of runs.

00z lol Can’t even buy a fantasy light rain event

Many are. And at least there’d be something interesting to follow with hopefully nobody needing to worry about potential devastation and casualties. I say hopefully nobody because there’s still some chance Bermuda will be hit. Fortunately though, Bermuda handles storms pretty well due to good elevation just off many of the beaches (hilly terrain) and very strict building codes. This includes limestone roofs! I’ve been there.

I did not ski 100 days last year either. 5 of the last 7 seasons I did though and I hope to hit it again this year.

May you continue to ring and of course, post. As always……

That map looks like @RUNNAWAYICEBERG cleans up on precip as usual... ; )

It's a fish storm.

Happy birthday.

today, there was quite the weather: • Shallow fog along my work route, was pretty! • A cloud! Or two! Maybe a 3 mph wind gust! • Miniature dust storm from golf carts driving around. That dude towing the pontoon must've been pissed! I could bitch about boring weather, but instead I'm putting these days in my Wx Spank Bank™ because January will be here before you know it.

Low of 64, high of 76. Another beautiful mid September day. Picked up .19" this morning.

It was looking like nothing would make it into Cedar Rapids today, but a storm cluster to the west tonight built eastward and gave us a very solid storm. I finished with a badly-needed 0.39".

Incredible for the CNE-NNE belt that’s driest.

We just had a shower at the house. The high today was 73. This morning the low was 55.

There was more SAL when 91L was around. That has cleared out an area, where 92L is at right now. There is still some ahead of it, and a big blob behind it. But where it is right now it is in a good spot. 92L also has a lot more convection than 91L ever had associated with it. 92L still will need to have that dry air ahead of it get out of the way, or it will fizzle out as well IMHO. No closed circulation that I can pick out with my untrained eyes. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/75019b3b-06c8-416d-8b72-d0c8bb3da341

After a cooler than normal first half of September in New York City, the second half looks to be warmer than normal based on the latest weekly guidance and ensembles. This development is consistent with the temperature trends since 1980. The second half of September is warming notably faster than the first half. Finally, there have been 10 cases where September 16-30 had a higher mean temperature than September 1-15. The most recent such case was 2017. Records go back to 1869.

Been pretty warm the past few days and a light shower today. 80s every day the past 6 days.

I'm surprised this coastal low off NC coast isn't going tropical.

That’s where I fish, off the eatons neck coast guard station. Good fishing out this way by that rip.

Highs: PHL: 85 EWR: 83 ISP: 82 TEB: 81 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 TTN: 81 LGA: 80 NYC: 79 ACY: 77 BLM: 76

Saw some pockets of decent color on my drive to Willmar MN today.