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Its over start of the the south trend. It was fun while it lasted....

It looks like a colder wedge hence more sleet.

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

Only thing that makes me feel this has a chance to actually at least move partially in that direction is that this has essentiallly been what every system has done for a few years now. As we get closer the northern stream gets more progressive and stronger and suppresses the flow in front of the weaker sheared southern wave. Thorn in our side all those times before but could be our saving grace this time. IF we can get it to keep trending.

None of the models today have incorporated the sampled data yet.

I did this last when I was living on Lady's Island a few years ago from a truck with chains The whole neighborhood had a blast with some vehicles pulling john boats

I'm going to take that GFS run and call it a day. Thank you everyone and goodnight!

Look at QPF trend from 12z to 18z for the Northeast. It did NOT go north and in fact was the exact trend we want, strung out and not as amped

Anybody making snow maps before Friday AM is an idiot. If you want to make note of potential hazards? Sure, but I better not see numbers on a map

Ai north

So double barrel highs 1044 and 1045.... it appears that the low is maybe trying to find a weakness in the ridge and head in that direction. So there for not a complete wall to wall of cold high pressure but rather a double high that has a weakness which the primary is moving towards. I think that needs to fuse together to prevent the north trend from continuing.

Just as expected. The new sampled data caused things to go wonky. Now that it’s beginning to normalize things we will back to business soon

18z ai gfs has our 1/29 Miller b as an early developer that hits us again.

If it leaves a little more of that energy out west its a more snow to sleet event.

Would be nice if 18z euro throws a bone.

Looks like its going to be GFS vs everything else.

This!! All winter the AI been balls on under 120 hrs

It's only 3 more days man. You can make it.

Minimal. Minimal enough to say GFS isn't really an outlier....

Earthlight just tweeted that he can’t believe snowmaps are going out already on his weather account. And he’s 100% right. Models are jumping all over the place. We are just under 4 days away from this storm and it’s very, very possible we see huge changes. Hurricane Hunter recon flights are scheduled to go out and they are increasing the number of weather balloon launches. All the “players” get on the field tonight and all the new recon flight/balloon data is going to get ingested in the models. Don’t be shocked if we see some very drastic model changes over the next 24+ hours

I think as the first LP re forms off coast we might rise above but quickly drop before the second prong.

The 18z GFS said, “Bam the torpedoes. Full speed ahead!!!”

More importantly it looks like the jackpot area moved further south again. Hope this is true. I don't care if I get a foot of snow. I just dont want an inch of ice. Please.

If all the models lined up in unison, it would be no fun. This is the great chase for 2010,2016, or Knickerbocker redux. The fact we have pulled off some monsters in our lifetime makes it more interesting to follow.