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  2. Sometimes. Here is how a Nino 3.4 El Nino usually develops.. first over the dateline: Sometimes Stronger El Nino's will develop in the far east and spread west to Nino 3, but they typically don't jump to where the western ENSO regions have the same +std as the east.
  3. Snowing pretty good despite relatively mundane reflectivity. .
  4. i shared the stats not too long ago. this is our best season in terms of both snow and cold in several years.
  5. just not enough CAPE Monday but i bet there’s at least one NJ tornado
  6. @mappy - Do you still have you mod powers? If I bump this event to a standalone thread after the afternoon day 2 outlook tomorrow can you pin it? Or I guess @WxUSAF is a mod too right?
  7. Am I correct that most 18z models shifted the low se about 50 miles?
  8. The storm is getting going with moderate snow in SD, MN, ND. It seems like snow-virga is in Wisconsin and Michigan. This view gives the warnings that are most current, so not all the blizzard warnings show up.
  9. My brother-in-law’s out nearSturgeon Bay right now. He was saying that the grocery stores are sack run on even for those hardy folk up there
  10. Low of 48, high of 77. Humidity at 40% made for a very nice day.
  11. Honestly so much bust potential with this though. If the defo band fails to materialize, going to bust hard in many spots.
  12. Let's wait and see how things look tomorrow. Again - we have traditionally (at least since the past few years) kept things mostly contained within this thread. If there is no reduction in the threat level tomorrow afternoon or evening - perhaps we can do a shorter term obs thread/damage report thread. While the potential for a high end event is definitely there - you'd be crazy to assume we are guaranteed a high end event. There are too many failure methods with Mid-Atlantic severe. Would be silly to have a thread that ends up being for a 50-60mph line of gusty storms. We've seen many events look robust at day 2 to fizzle the day of - heck even some day 1 big dog potentials have fizzled.
  13. Vis under a mile now. Wind is shredding the dendrites and already causing minor drifting
  14. I missed you’re call for this event what is it?
  15. I don't know the answer to this, but I have to think the 1/26/78 Superbomb has to be at or near the top of the list. I know Hopkins hit 82 mph and I think there were some 100 mph reports closer to the lakeshore.
  16. Last Feb was actually a better winter month overall for NE IL/SE WI, but for the entire winter I guess you can make the argument that last winter was worse. Not setting the bar very high here though.
  17. Considering the high end potential and anomalous setup I would think this threat alone deserves a thread. It would make it much easier to locate this threat if anyone wanted to read up on it years down the road as I’m sure some of us do for some of our biggest snow storms.
  18. I think some counties may release early on monday? Looks legit and dont think theyd want buses on the roads when that line comes through. Guess we will need to see most likely timing on tomorrow’s model runs. .
  19. What’s your outlook for this event?
  20. Actually, this wasn't good to bring to my attention. It made me look at the forecast for Sun City, and the highs for late next week will be around 105 degrees. It set my anger and depression into overdrive, and if my stubborn wife would have been willing to give it a chance out there, I wouldn't be here suffering this misery.
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