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My leaning of the weekly relative 3.4 going up from +0.2 in last week’s release to +0.4 in today’s turned out to be what happened for its 4th rise in a row. Nino 1+2 cooled again (by 0.2) to +0.7. Nino 3, like Nino 3.4, rose for the 4th week in a row to +0.5. Nino 4 was unchanged at +0.5. So far, it’s not behaving as if it is headed to strongly E based this autumn (Cansips has been suggesting central to W based with E (1+2 to 3) not as warm as 3.4 to 4) but we’ll see as there’s a long way to go: Date………………….1+2………..3………..3.4………..4 01APR2026 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 08APR2026 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 22APR2026 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.5 29APR2026 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 ——————- The latest SSTa charts suggest a pause, which is long overdue, MAY finally occurring temporarily:

The operational models, all of them ... are lagging behind the mid month warm signal that both the numerical indices, and the extended range ensemble synoptics ( all three) suggest. They are flipping the script after ~ 12th to 15th in there. The operational versions are oblivious. Reloading a winter mocking pattern foot. They're stuck. It's gotta end at some point... So I guess we'll see.

34 degrees which is getting pretty close to freezing. NWS is saying a chance of freezing the end of the week.

Even this week feels like a step up. Freeze threats and highs in the 40s are waning…although the 6z GFS tries to shit on Saturday again.

If I copied the forecast from 5 Saturday’s ago, it would still be applicable to this coming Saturday. WTF.

Yeah going to be a stout cold front again this week after some great beneficial rainfall.

Just seeing this. I hope she makes a speedy recovery. That’s scary stuff.

Pretty impressive to see the upper ocean heat anomalies this week higher than at any point during the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events.

Backloaded season for them. The West is one of those places that needs a great snowpack for water supplies and the ski industry. They are way down in both of those areas. Hopefully, the developing very strong El Niño can deliver for them with better snow in the West next winter. Monthly Total Snowfall for Denver Area, CO (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.6 6.6 T 10.5 3.4 M 20.7 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 23.3 1.4 13.3 5.5 2.0 2.2 0.0 47.7 2023-2024 0.0 7.5 2.9 1.4 3.6 13.7 9.2 6.3 T 44.6 2022-2023 0.0 T 10.9 13.0 13.0 4.7 5.1 2.2 T 48.9 2021-2022 0.0 T T 4.8 13.4 15.8 13.1 T 2.3 49.4 2020-2021 1.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 3.1 13.5 34.0 12.6 T 80.2 2019-2020 0.0 12.5 13.7 2.8 0.9 16.5 7.5 3.7 0.0 57.6 https://www.denverwater.org/tap/denver-water-snowpack-and-water-supply-update Denver Water’s collection and service areas continue to face severe drought conditions, with historically low snowpack. Denver Water depends on mountain snowpack for its water supply, which serves 1.5 million people in Denver and surrounding suburbs. As a result, on March 25, 2026, the Denver Board of Water Commissioners declared a Stage 1 drought, seeking a 20% reduction in water use to preserve water levels and avoid even stricter mandatory restrictions later this summer. On April 8, 2026, the board approved the implementation of temporary drought pricing, starting with May water use and reflected in June bills, to signal the premium value of water during droughts and help incentivize customers to save water. Customers are urged not to turn on automatic sprinkler systems until at least mid- to late-May, or later if possible. It is not necessary to water grass two days per week in April and the beginning of May; keeping automatic systems off will help save water. Occasional hand-watering may be necessary for trees and shrubs during this time. Keep an eye on the weather and let Mother Nature do the watering when she delivers spring rains. Snowpack and water supply update In Denver Water’s collection system, snowpack as of April 27, 2026, remained at the lowest levels observed in the past 40 years: Colorado River Basin: 18% of normal, worst on record. South Platte River Basin: 2% of normal, second-worst on record. Snowpack and melting conditions are unprecedented, with accelerated melting seen since mid-March. Customers need to save water to protect the supply we have right now. Streamflow forecasts are calling for runoff levels to be 10-40% of normal in 2026. Reservoir storage conditions are below average; while in reasonably good shape for the time being, far less snowpack is available to help refill them. As of April 27, 2026, reservoirs were 79% full, versus an average of 85% full for this time.

Had a trace of some sort of frozen precipitation on May 2 here for about 5-10 mins. Enough to lay momentarily on some surfaces.

My in-laws yesterday: “this has been one of the coldest springs!” Me: “actually it’s been one of the warmest springs so far, but yes, the last week has been cool.” Them: “I can’t remember wearing a sweater so much in spring though!” Me: “…” Frogs in the slowly heating pot…

Yeah looks warmer after mid month

Low of 37 this morning, which is lower than my 40 yesterday when there was the Frost Advisory.

my guy maxim woke up and chose violence back half of the month showing some promise, need that 540 line up around the hudson bay where it belongs

Made it to 37 this morning so far which is again below guidance. I suspect patchy frost is in the area, but cannot confirm that yet. The GFS and RGEM are the only models which are getting close to projected night time lows. The GFS has Friday morning as 34-35 for temps. No other model has it. Good test coming up again.

Will plant garden/ veggies this coming weekend. Mid month on looking torchier.

That was as low as it got. Saved by clouds and a breeze as the WAA started coming in aloft. 39° now

.CLIMATE... Multiple low temperature records were set or tied across central Pennsylvania for May 3rd: Altoona observed a low temperature of 31 degrees, breaking the previous record of 32 degrees set in 1957. Johnstown observed a low temperature of 29 degrees, which ties the previous record of 29 degrees set in 1941.

Midweek rain fell apart overnight. Can’t break the drought. Yet…

This mornings 6z GFS looks freaking amazing starting Wednesday through Friday. 2 to 3 inches of rainfall? Yes please. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Another frosty morning with a current temp and low of 33 degrees.

32.5 this morning. NWS said my low was to be near 40. another cold start.

I don't even work in a warehouse and im in ac all the time lol sucks for people that are though

I’m very frustrated with the beginning of my year so far. I dug into the statistics available in GHIN app to confirm my thoughts: 1. my par 3 scoring is abysmal 2. I’m not making any birdies 3. I’m making a ton of others from stupid penalties.