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That's what the middle 10 days of January are for...

I just want to be able to wear hoodies.

82°

Damp, drizzly overnight... 0.07

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 2.5 2.6 2.5 5.4 1.7 1.7 3.2 2.6 0.2

Up in Stowe this week. Looking for freak on the streets but no sighting so far… On our drive up yesterday I was astounded at how far along the foliage was in southern NH/VT, less further north. Lots of color where we’re staying in Stowe. Staying at an Airbnb-beautiful setting. Daughter flew on from Chicago yesterday and we picked her up at BTV. Sunset behind the Adirondacks was spectacular. Cooler today though but still nice.

you realize you just doomed not only this year, but probably the next 6 of them due to your declaration - nice goin'

It's because unfortunately there are some who think that if they're posting something like that, they must know something... My best friend does this every year "but he sounds like he knows what he's talking about" LOL

Second summer really digging in its heels over the upper Midwest, with a number of record highs across the region.

It's still far out but the GFS calls for cooler weather again starting end of next week. We'll see.

I looked back to 2016-2017....so not 10 years yet, but it will be because we aren't having an El Nino this season. I will give you 2018-2019 as a weak El Nino, but not 2019-2020...that was neutral. And if you are going to consider 2018-2019 El Nino, which is fine, then you have to consider 2024-2025 weak La Nina. Lets be consistent here.

Re the fantasy range GFS solution above. you know, there are two types of fantasy. Those that don't look even physically very plausible - if physically not impossible. Then there are those that look physically plausible - because they are both physically possible, but fit some sort of back ground (non-linearity) about the flow behaviors. This is like pattern zeitgeist ? It fits the spirit of the times. That solution above does. We keep repeating these +PNA foot prints, perhaps masked at times. Anyway, we've seen this sort of turn out mid latitude snow or snow supportive synoptic modes some half of the Octobers since 2000 - as an aside ... prior to that approximate yesteryear, much rarer was that ever the case. Something switched around then to make October 10 - TG holiday span more prone to this - we all know what that is so won't get into it. This is part and parcel why I feel our best odds at expressing winter being a front loaded one. There's background tendencies to fire off blocking early ...and this fits that leitmotif as discussed, as a possible harbinger of a proficient blocking autumn into early winter. That's not me trying to sell November/December 1995, either. Really just what it says... our best odds at expressing winter - perhaps at all. I don't have faith in winters anymore, as being sort of Currier&Ives nostalgic reduxing, due to this gradient saturation issue. It's hard to block during the DJF period, when the gradient becomes seasonally extreme, because in more basic physical sense, fast flow does not go around short(er) curved surfaces if the flow exceeds the critical velocity threshold - it can't because the centrifugal acceleration exceeds the Coriolis and that opens it back up... that basic physical premise has become a delimiter during recent (decades) of winter, with increasing tendencies. 2015 was unique ... as an afterthought. That was resonance at a huge scale. The entire WPO-EPO-N/A arc was in on it, and so... such large spatial domain doesn't have short radial geometry - the flow can remain fast around a -WPO/-EPO loading pattern that way.

Clouds starting to thin, we'll see if it in enough time to get to 80 72 / 52

I head out on Thursday morning for a long weekend to Texas to meet our new granddaughter. So I'll miss one cool day but then see things warm right back up again. Not gonna lie, I had a similar feeling in that I was going to be pissed if I missed some legit cooler weather.

Amen. September 1 is the end of what? At the latitude of New York and on the coast, you can't really declare summer is over until November 1st, IMO. 70s and 80s is still summer IMO.

Rain Sep JFK: 2.96 New Brnswck: 2.66 NYC: 2.76 LGA: 2.54 BLM: 2.09 TTN: 1.89 PHL: 1.79 EWR: 1.71 TEB: 1.65 ISP: 1.58

12-13: ENSO neutral 13-14: ENSO neutral 14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino 15-16: super el nino 16-17: weak la nina 17-18: weak la nina 18-19: weak el nino 19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino 20-21: moderate la nina 21-22: moderate la nina 22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating) 23-24: strong el nino 24-25: ENSO neutral I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

Smoking cirrus? We clear.

I had 3.38" for the month.

This is interesting from the MJO desk/CPC "...support for the formation of a Central American Gyre (CAG) event during October." Just inferring from hemispheric mode one would guess CAG vulnerability - wasn't looking but a corroboration from the MJO folk adds to that. Notable risks are TC's. Opal and I suspect Sandy ( just for examples) were born out of CAG gyres, just to name a couple.

Smoky up there today

looking forward to seeing obs from our resident lowposters before they disappear again

Looking forward to the cool down no matter how short lived it will be. Rainfall here for September was better than for most places. Received 3.32" for the month. That was mostly from the 2.15" that fell on 9/5, surprise over performer. Rest of the month was scattered light events. Hopefully October can deliver more widespread moderate to heavier totals but my expectations are low.

From my peak season forecast: “As the EPS suggests, we could start seeing favorable conditions return even earlier in the peak period, but I think a conservative expectation of things to heat up with the MJO after the 20th is the best route. That would make the September 20-October 20 period most active.”

We got a lot more rain than forecasted here. .78 and still drizzling.