All Activity

Peeking in on the MA forum it seems some are getting to sleet quicker than modeled?

any idea what sort of ratio these images are using? doesn't look 10:1 based on amounts, kuchera or something different altogether?

Lol he isn’t talking about dca

Yep, and radar returns look to be growing down toward Greenville - Spartanburg.

It’s just not that serious.

A few here seemed bothered by the virga, so figured I'd share a local met's explanation. I think he explained it pretty well. Lol

Let’s Go Caaaaaps!! 3-2. Almost time for a stout.

First pixie dust flakes in Easton, extremely light but basically no virga

Worried for yall. This has transitioned from a midlands SC to SW VA ice storm

see if we can hold it

Based off what I can tell, the transition line is from about Lewisburg, WV, east to Lynchburg, VA and then drops SE towards Emporia. This seems to line up fairly well with guidance so far.

14F / -9F ,Mostly Cloudy, light north winds

That map has me in the dark purple. Pretty close to my thinking of 6-10” imby.

The better argument is that the rgem/euro and other guidance that gives us 8-12” does so by sticking an incredibly intense band over us from 10-16z. It’s a lot easier for WAA to win in light to moderate precip than it will be to advance if there is a band of .1 qpf/hr+ stuff over the area. It’s all going to come down to that really imo. The NAM doesn’t have that. It shifts the heavy banding way up into central PA and the WAA routes us because there is no dynamic cooling to slow it down. Basically if this is what’s going on from 10-16z the snow will hold on longer north of about 66 and definitely north of a Winchester to Baltimore line this on the other hand, ain’t gonna get it done Everyone is focused on the temps on the NAM, the real issue is why is the NAM missing the heavy banding tomorrow morning that all other guidance has. That’s why the mid level warmth surges north from 10-15z there is nothing to slow it down on the NAM.

Go Caps!!!

EURO

Please don’t direct any posts to me. Put me on ignore. The only reason I keep you off of ignore is because I find you an interesting study in cluelessness.

.

I know it's going to snow, that was never in doubt. It's just that if the changeover happens sooner than expected then it'll be way less than most are forecasting. People keep putting words in my mouth and it's getting old.

16 degrees with mixed sleet/ snow. Looks pretty heavy

ICON

Ok? It’s gonna snow. Then there will be sleet. And maybe some freezing rain. And we’ll all be alive. Though that is less than guaranteed when encountering ice these days.

Lemme know when your book is published. I'll buy the first copy! Kocin and Uccellini best be looking over their shoulders.