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The weekend will start on a cold note with the low temperature likely near freezing in New York City and high temperatures in the middle 40s on Saturday. Sunday will become somewhat milder. The warming trend will continue through the remainder of March with the temperature reaching the 70s as March concludes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -12.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.511 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Please no. Enough now

a little snow tomorrow?

Out here in a steady rain at a baseball game. Guidance missed this, had it farther south.

Was Cohasse your old friend one? If so, played there at the end of the season last year, and it was in great shape

Sleeting in Timonium lol

For MBY, I'd give it a B-. The most notable experience was the squall that @MillvilleWx and I chased up at Keyser's Ridge. Awesome LES chase with @dailylurker but that doesn't go towards the grade here at home. The sleet bomb with temps in the mid single digits was notable - and disappointing since we wasted a ton of QPF with such cold air. But, almost exactly climo snow and slightly below average temps yielded an overall solid winter at the resorts. Grade could have been higher but it's weird that sustained winter, at least out here, seems to always die after about the first of February.

High in the 20s is just cruel under full sunshine this time of year.

My old one opened yesterday, not Sure when they open up here but doesn't matter til I get my hip replaced.

A generous D+ due to the cold. Received at least an inch of snow only once all winter. Fourth-lowest snowfall total in my 20 years in WV at 11".

Yes. The @ChescoWx method is statistically useless. This can be demonstrated quantitatively by shifting the starting point (1998/04) and ending point (2026/01) of the trend multiple times and seeing how sensitive it is to the cherry-picking the start and end points. For example, shifting the line to 1996/06 to 2024/04 yields a warming rate of +0.41 C.decade-1 using this method. Using a more robust linear regression from 1998/04 to 2026/01 we get 0.1851 ± 0.092 C.decade-1 k=2 with an acceleration of an 0.1516 ± 0.035 C.decade-2 k=2. And this is starting from an El Nino peak and ending with a La Nina crash with a 5m lagged RONI of +2.4 and -0.8 respectively (or using the deprecated ONI it is +2.4 and -0.4 respectively). Note that uncertainties here are computed using a Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent model [Zeileis 2006].

Basically climo snow + cold. So like a C+?

Crickets in here Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

75-80 Tuesday / Wednesday next week

C'mon man. You know better than this. Some people would love cloudy and 40 from now till October

.30" of wonderful rain at 4:30. 48 degrees

People can weenie me all they want….its been like this since late November, I’m friggin sick of it. Forget the chilly weather, I’m sick of this stupid wind. I’ve been playing when I can this winter but my first Sunday game is this weekend and it’s supposed to be 45 high with 25-30mph gusts. ENOUGH lol

Just get past a large camper parked outside your front lawn while washing in the hydrant and its paradise!

Locusts and frogs

On the subject of TSA delays - My wife and I flew to Tokyo earlier this month and returned to IAD from last Sat. We were dreading the flight out and even more the return flight as IAD is notorious for long lines at immigration. On the outbound leg - we were surprised at how short the line was for Immigration and Security. We were even more surprised at how short the line was on the arrival back. We only had a few people ahead of us in the Immigration line. Likewise, Customs "inspection" was nearly non-existent. The staffing at Immigration was clearly on a reduced staff on both the outbound and return legs of the trip. However, TSA appear to be making up for things by expediting passport processing. On the return at IAD, as soon as my wife and I had our iris scans done, the Immigration officer immediately handed us our passports back and pushed us on through. From start to finish was about 20 seconds max, for both of us. In my 40+ years of flying into IAD that was by far the fastest I've ever seen Immigration process people through at IAD. I thought..., maybe we just ot lucky with the timing of our flight from Tokyo? Maybe we were in between the big "pushes" as the airlines call the ebb and flow if flights. That's possible. However, our flight was packed and there were a lot of people from other flights at the baggage carousals indicating Immigration was still processing a lot of people through. No doubt this is no consolation for all the nightmare stories we're seeing of airport lines around the country. And again, maybe we just got lucky.

I concur that it only takes one for a very bad season, it's just a matter of when in seeing a strong cane here in the northeast.

My better half and her kids just needed two and a half hours to get through security at BWI - they got in line at 1: 15 and just now cleared. Luckily, they went way early for their 5:30 flight - glad they did.

I didn’t take it for trolling at all.

I'm going next month. Never been