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maybe, maybe not

January is going to be +PNA and the season will average -WPO....very strong statistical evidence.

Found this interesting Low confidence forecast continues Friday into next weekend as a boundary will be separating very cold air/below normal temperatures to our north and unseasonably mild temperatures to our southwest. There is a high across Quebec and pattern recognition would indicate good support for shallow cold air to invade southern New England. The 12z ECMWF is most aggressive with the shallow cold air...especially on Friday with daytime temperatures mainly in the 20s! Meanwhile...the 12z GFS is the mildest of the guidance with temperatures at the same time in the 50s! The interesting thing is that the GFS AI model is much colder and more similar to the ECMWF. Assume it is probably an indication of past performance/pattern recognition. While we are not sure it will be quite as cold as the ECMWF...we certainly want to lean colder based on pattern recognition and support from the AI guidance. But again...tremendous uncertainty continues in this forecast.

Your area might try and get a piece of the IVT. But IVTs are thought to forecast. Keep checking back tomorrow on that.

Still doesn't adress why we need thr warm pook to move east to get +TNH.

Lol, why do I have a feeling the the "sucker" hole is from ASH to Ray's hood....

Been there for five years. Why change now?

That is a crazy thing to track, but thanks for sharing. It was cloudy here in the 50s today.

I’d keep it at 1-3” for most of SNE and adjust higher or lower if needed tomorrow. There’s a chance there could be a little sucker hole in the middle of SNE as the WAA dies out and the IVT gets going further northeast. We don’t know if that’s going to happen but if it does, there could be an area of 1” type totals. That’s why leave it at 1-3” for now.

South coasters in tubs with toasters

Record low humidity this afternoon for this date and nearly for the month of December (around 15%)

Currently: Clear. Breezy. 24.6°

Yeah----probably the snowiest town in ORH county. Outside of Lunenburg, of course.

3”-4” of hard glacier with some dust on top. Here’s the front and backyard view right around sunset.

Ashburnham 1,367 asl great spot

For most PNW stations, December has seen around 1-2F warming since 1940s. February hasn't warmed at all. Summer warming has been much more pronounced.

Yeah i guess my question is why we need the warm pool to extend east this year and not last year. For feb it makes sense. What is different about this January vs. last January when we had a +PNA?

He was among my wxtwitter follows for quite a while when I was on there and I agree with this assessment. I didn't know it was a thing, but he did sort of seem to relish crushing EC snow weenie dreams Note, I am not commenting on his or anyone's specific thoughts on this winter.

He was calling for a TNH+ pattern with -EPO for the winter not too long ago, maybe a couple of weeks. I do follow him and he gives good background information under the hood, but the latest tweet of his lacked the usual substance and reasoning for a big change is his position/outlook.

40s tomorrow then 50s and 60s for the next week. Here comes the warm spell. My guess, mid to late January we have a shot at snow again.

EPS trend for 12/29 @ 12z. Look at that trend towards colder weather. And some are already cancelling winter.

How happyclam sauce ?

18z GFS is bringing 1 inch of snow to Harrisburg & Lancaster on Tuesday am, with closer to 3 inches for the Williamsport area.

Lol. Your area and right over @powderfreak’s head.

Yea it’s a weather discussion board. We talk about weather, good, bad, ugly. Sorry I hurt your feelings